A national party convention balloon drop is normally followed by a nominee polling surge, and as President Trump trails Joe Biden, he could use all the help he can get.
Yet the coronavirus pandemic has wreaked havoc on the 2020 campaigns, their rallies, their get-out-the-vote organizing, and their conventions. Their “convention bounces” are expected to look a lot different from previous cycles too.
Nominees typically receive a “healthy” boost in popularity within their own party after the quadrennial gatherings, according to Quinnipiac University polling analyst Timothy Malloy.
“But in this frightening and uncertain time, the raucous enthusiasm we are accustomed to is unlikely,” he said.
The COVID-19 outbreak has severely curtailed what were once anticipated to be 50,000-person-plus events, years in the making.
Conventions formally launch the general election season, having not changed either party’s ticket since 1972, Emerson College Polling Director Spencer Kimball told the Washington Examiner.
The public opinion boon in the past, however, has been mostly temporary, Kimball explained. He cited 2008 Republican standard-bearer John McCain and Sarah Palin, his vice presidential choice, as recent examples.
“I recall McCain getting a bump out of the convention in 2008 with the Palin pick, but that faded by the time the bailout package was announced,” he said.
For Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray, the average post-convention movement was about 5 to 6 percentage points. But Murray echoed Kimball in that it was usually “modest and fleeting.”
“Barack Obama did not really get a bounce in 2008 because the GOP convention started the week after the Dem one. There was no gap in time where a bounce could occur. Also, the McCain campaign ‘stepped on’ any potential bounce by announcing their Sarah Palin pick during the Dem convention,” he said.
With 1992 Democratic nominee Bill Clinton’s double-digit leg-up an exception to the rule because of Ross Perot, Murray insisted that data didn’t support the bounce mythology feted by the media. And it is especially uncertain this year considering there won’t be the traditional spectacle to coronate Biden, the former vice president and 36-year Delaware senator.
“So much of this campaign already seems to be etched in stone, from strongly held views of the incumbent, both pro and con, to the overriding context of the pandemic. It’s hard to see a convention moving any of that all that much. But it could happen,” he said.
There were political dangers involved as well, Murray added.
“At this point, there could be as much likelihood of getting a negative bounce, if there is such a thing, as anything else,” he said. “Biden could stumble in his acceptance speech. Trump could double down on downplaying the pandemic and appeal to his base, which seems to have been shifting swing voters away from him. This is uncharted territory.”
Suffolk University Political Research Center Director David Paleologos predicted an uptick of low single-digits because there were fewer persuadable voters left in the electorate. And the 2020 conventions would be “anti-climactic and dull” compared to the celebrity-laden fanfare.
“The timing of the selection of Biden’s vice presidential candidate could be an interesting and valuable component in terms of what kind of bounce he gets because it’s the biggest unknown about him,” he said. “If he were able to hold it, it would certainly drive up curiosity, ratings, and so on.”
Democrats were risking the optics of a poorly attended, low-energy celebration, but it was Trump who faced the most pressure, Paleologos continued.
“Biden doesn’t need to out-convention Trump. Trump needs to out-convention Biden,” he said. “The Republican convention, if it’s done right, will look better because there will be more people there, but not to the level that’s going to close a 10-point national poll deficit.”
Democrats last month announced plans to scale back their convention drastically, set to take place from Aug. 17-20 in Milwaukee.
Presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden will accept his party’s nomination next month in-person, but at a smaller venue than was originally booked. Delegates and high-profile Democrats, such as members of Congress, have been discouraged from traveling to the crucial battleground state. And most sideline soirees have been canceled.
Republicans have similarly changed their convention programming for one week later.
The GOP yanked most of its confab from Charlotte, North Carolina, after Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper refused to guarantee a crowded event could go ahead in his state. Now festivities in Jacksonville, Florida, have been pulled back as case numbers in the hot spot state peak.
Republicans will gather in both indoor and outdoor venues, Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel told members last week. Only delegates are taking part at first, before the party throws open its doors to delegates, alternate delegates, and guests on Aug. 27, when Trump becomes the 2020 GOP standard-bearer.
