Russian-supported rebels attacked Ukrainian government-held areas of the eastern Luhansk Oblast on Tuesday. President Trump thus has an opportunity to draw a line under the impeachment saga by providing new support to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government.
The offensive is certainly significant.
According to the Kyiv Post, Ukraine’s army lost at least one soldier and suffered four wounded. And the Russian-led offensive, apparently designed to secure approaches around the village of Zolote, did secure minor territorial gains. The timing here provides a critical context. Because this offensive comes as Ukrainian and Russian negotiators are trying to make progress with regards to a durable cease-fire agreement. With this new violence, Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to force the Ukrainians into the understanding that they must either compromise or see ever-increasing Russian pressure on their flanks.
The offensive is only one side of Russia’s strategy here.
Just last week, for example, the Russians orchestrated an impressive propaganda coup by using the Munich Security Conference to produce a paper on how to make progress with those negotiations. Quite obviously a Russian disinformation effort, the paper somehow managed to attract the support of Obama-era Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, two former NATO supreme commanders Philip Breedlove and James Stavridis, and a former head of Britain’s MI6 foreign intelligence service.
This fits with ongoing and undue Franco-German pressure to see Ukraine make compromises to Russia rather than vice versa. Indeed, French President Emmanuel Macron used the Munich conference to reinforce his call for Russian sanctions relief (I will write more on this later today).
As I say, however, this is Trump’s opportunity. Up and until the July 2019 phone call with Zelensky that sparked his impeachment trial, Trump’s record on Ukraine was exemplary. He had ended the Obama administration’s moratorium on lethal weapons deliveries, supported more aggressive Russia-focused intelligence operations, and was consolidating Zelensky against Franco-German appeasement demands. Trump now has the chance to take the next step.
The president should publicly call on Zelensky to suspend negotiations with Russia, and instead, work to deliver Ukraine with an expedited and improved array of military capabilities. This should include artillery systems capable of deterring and defeating Russian offensive lines.
Ultimately, it’s up to Trump. It’s faux-defenders-of-democracy rhetoric aside, the European Union lacks the resolve or interest to support Ukrainian sovereignty. And Putin intends to turn the young democracy into a hollow shell. Only the United States can prevent that outcome. We should do so.
