The de facto challenger in 2016, this time around, President Trump has the power and pageantry of the presidency behind him — but even that may not be sufficient to get him over the top in a tough reelection contest.
Republican strategist Bradley Blakeman called the trappings of the office “a powerful tool” but added, “It is just one advantage over a challenger.”
“His incumbency is a net neutral,” said Dennis Darnoi, a Republican consultant in Michigan.
Trump has increasingly sought to wield the advantages of incumbency in his reelection bid. When Democratic challenger Joe Biden travels to Kenosha, he can only give speeches. Trump was able to hold roundtable discussions behind the presidential seal and announce new rounds of federal money to aid rebuilding after the riots. The administration also said Wednesday that it would use quarantine rules to halt most evictions, the latest in a series of executive actions Trump has undertaken to bypass Congress, where the latest phase of coronavirus relief legislation is stalled.
During the Republican National Convention, Trump presided over a naturalization ceremony for new American citizens and issued a pardon on live national television. He delivered his acceptance speech from the South Lawn of the White House, which was also the venue for first lady Melania Trump’s remarks. He offered a full presidential pardon to Alice Johnson, whose sentence he had previously commuted, shortly after her supportive speech at the GOP convention.
But incumbency is a double-edged sword. Trump now has a record his Democratic opponents are able to attack. Democrats argue that as the sitting president, Trump bears responsibility for the state of the country amid a pandemic that has claimed 180,000 lives, high unemployment, and widespread civil unrest.
“Biden has the advantage of attacking the POTUS on his record because he does not have a contemporary record to attack,” said Blakeman. “Advantages seem to balance themselves out.”
Democratic strategists also believe that nearly four years of Trump in the White House has helped them keep progressives in the fold who went third party or stayed home when the nominee was Hillary Clinton. Biden has, so far, succeeded where Clinton failed in substituting fervor for the Democratic ticket with fear and loathing of Trump. Polling shows that Trump voters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate, but it hasn’t kept Biden from jumping out to a respectable lead or maintaining the support of Bernie Sanders voters.
According to Huffington Post/YouGov polling, 38% thought the main message of the Democratic convention was that a vote for Biden would remove Trump from office to only 21% who thought it was about Biden’s own competence, 11% Biden’s character, and 7% his public policies. That’s a message that only works with Trump as the incumbent.
The former vice president also built much of his polling lead while holed up in his basement, even as Trump used the bully pulpit, holding regular White House briefings on the coronavirus and weighing in on national controversies as city neighborhoods burned. Republicans doubted Biden’s strategy was sustainable, and his recent forays outside of Delaware may be a sign that it is coming to an end, but it has so far worked.
“Trump supporters take no issue with a campaign speech being given from the lawn of the White House,” Darnoi said. “Well, that’s until a future Dem president does it. They have no problem with President Trump going to cities and states in his official capacity and then using that forum to parrot campaign talking points. Trump’s opponents see his using the tools of incumbency as confirmation of their immutably held belief that he is a con man who is doing to America what he has done to all his other bankrupt businesses.”
Genuine swing voters, in his view, are in short supply. “It would be interesting to know if there is a single voter in America who does not have an opinion, whether favorable or unfavorable, of Donald Trump,” Darnoi continued. “I honestly don’t believe that person exists.”
Still, Republicans have hardly given up.
“On Election Day this cycle, voters will have three things on their minds: COVID-19, the economy, and law and order,” said Blakeman. “They will ask themselves not, ‘Am I better off today than I was four years ago?’ but instead, ‘Who do I trust to bring us to brighter days?’ I believe Trump has the advantage.”
