Vice President Mike Pence could be spending much more time in the Capitol next year if the Nov. 6 election results in a tied Senate.
Pence’s tie-breaking vote would be critical for clearing what is likely to be a large slate of Trump administration nominees, who will require 51 votes to win confirmation.
“It means the Vice President is going to have to be on standby pretty much at all times when they expect to be voting, especially on nominations,” Stewart Verdery, Jr., a former top Senate GOP aide and founder of the lobbying firm Monument Policy Group, told the Washington Examiner.
A tied Senate could put Pence on track to beat the record for tie-breaking vice presidents. According to the Senate historian, John C. Calhoun cast the most (31) followed by John Adams (29). Pence has broken nine tie votes so far since taking office, many of them to confirm Trump’s judicial and executive branch nominees.
Polls suggest Democrats are in position to recapture the House, which would hobble legislation and put the GOP’s focus back on the executive branch.
Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., told the Washington Examiner if the House GOP loses the gavel, “my assumption is we’d be spending a lot of time on nominations.”
Republicans enjoy better political prospects in the Senate.
A tied Senate has occurred only three times in history, most recently in 2001, when it was evenly split for four months.
This year, RealClearPolitics calculates the GOP is likely to pick up three Senate seats out of six toss-up races, which would give the party 53 Republican lawmakers in January and Democrats 47.
But, says Ron Faucheux, president of Clarus Research Group, a research and polling company, “with so many close races, anything can happen.”
“But even a 50-50 tie keeps control in Republican hands” thanks to Pence, Faucheux added.
McConnell would therefore remain majority leader and would control the floor schedule, although Democrats would likely try to assert more influence on which legislation reaches the floor.
And Pence is only permitted to cast tie-breaking votes and holds no other powers to act as a lawmaker.
In the event of a November tie, Senate Democrats would likely insist on a power-sharing arrangement that would evenly divide committees, staff and panel funding between the parties, although the GOP would control committee gavels.
That’s how the Senate handled a tied chamber in 2001.
Republicans controlled 50 seats and held the technical majority thanks to Vice President Dick Cheney’s tie-breaking powers, but they had to cede some power to the Democrats who insisted on evenly divided seats, staff and financial resources on all committees.
Republicans would maintain power over committee agendas, which means Democrats would not be authorized to launch panel probes into President Trump, for instance, or re-open an investigation into Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, which Judiciary Committee ranking Democrat, Dianne Feinstein, of California, has promised to do if the party regains control of the chamber.
McConnell has said in the past that the two parties would try to use the 2001 power sharing model in the event of a tie.
The chamber has grown more partisan since then, some political analysts say, which could make it more difficult for the two sides to operate under a divided power arrangement.
“Would the two sides be willing to dust off that old agreement?” Stewart said. “I don’t know.”
The two parties left town earlier this month after a bitter battle to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, noted Ron Bonjean, a former top Senate aide who is now a political consultant at Rokk Solutions.
“A power sharing agreement could be really tough to achieve this time around since the Senate has become much more partisan and the hard feelings left after the Kavanaugh confirmation, not to mention a bruising election cycle,” Bonjean said.
