GIVE PEACE A CHANCE: It was Oscar Wilde who called a second marriage “the triumph of hope over experience.” The same insight might be applied to the very guarded optimism that North Korea’s Kim Jong Un could be convinced to give up his nukes in return for security guarantees.

HAPPENING TODAY: The House Appropriations Committee kicks off work on the 2019 defense spending with a hearing at 10 a.m. on the Navy and Marine Corps budget. Its defense subcommittee will hear testimony from Navy Secretary Richard Spencer; Gen. Robert Neller, the commandant of the Marines; and Adm. John Richardson, chief of naval operations. The defense subcommittee, chaired by Rep. Kay Granger, will hear testimony from leaders of the Air Force and Army on their budget requests next week.

HYTEN TALKS NEW NUKES: This afternoon at 3:30, Gen. John Hyten, the head of U.S. Strategic Command, and John Rood, the undersecretary of defense for policy, will testify before a House Armed Services subcommittee about their 2019 budget request and the Nuclear Posture Review. Rep. Mike Rogers, chairman of the Strategic Forces subcommittee, said the hearing will look at the development of low-yield, submarine-launched nuclear missiles and sea-launched nuclear cruise missiles. “The committee is particularly concerned with the development of boost-phase interceptors, directed-energy weapons and space-based capabilities,” Rogers said.

F-35 UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: The three-star admiral overseeing the Pentagon’s most expensive weapons program ever testifies this afternoon before the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces at 2. In a meeting with reporters last week, Vice Adm. Mat Winter, program executive officer for the $400 billion program, said the cost of the F-35 must come down, or it will quickly become unaffordable.

“The price is coming down, but it is not coming down fast enough,” Winter told reporters, promising a hard-nosed negotiation with Lockheed Martin over the price for the next lot of F-35s to be purchased this year.  Winter will be joined by Air Force Lt. Gen. Jerry Harris, deputy chief of staff for plans, programs and requirements, and Marine Lt. Gen. Steven Rudder, deputy commandant for aviation.

NAKASONE GETS SASC NOD: The Senate Armed Services Committee has passed along Lt. Gen. Paul Nakasone’s nomination to head U.S. Cyber Command to the full Senate. The chamber can now tee up a floor vote for final confirmation, though judicial bench nominees have dominated the schedule recently. Nakasone, who heads up Army cyber ops, would replace soon-to-retire Adm. Mike Rogers in the dual-hatted role of CYBERCOM commander and director of the National Security Agency. Both warned Congress in testimony last week that the U.S. is not doing enough to deter cyber attacks by Russia, China and others.

The committee also voted out the nomination of Brent Park to be deputy administrator for defense nuclear nonproliferation of the National Nuclear Security Administration.

THE FANTASY FLEET: At the McAleese-Credit Suisse Defense Conference yesterday, Rep. Adam Smith called plans for a 355-ship Navy “a pure fantasy.” Smith, who could in theory become chairman of the House Armed Services Committee if Democrats were to recapture the House, said building and maintaining such a large fleet will be unaffordable.

“They hope to achieve a 355-ship Navy by what is it? 2050? We can barely predict what’s going to happen two months from now. Really? In 2050 you’re going to tell me how many ships we’re going to have, based on everything going on?” Smith said. “I think that sort of procurement approach to national security doesn’t give us a good strategy and doesn’t recognize the budget reality. And part of what we need to do in our national security strategy I think is to have it step back a little bit to match what our likely resources are going to be.”

Later in the session Navy Undersecretary Thomas Modly admitted the big problem is going to be securing funding from Congress. “There are multiple scenarios that will allow us to accelerate that, but it will require additional funding from Congress and prioritization from them to do that.”

CHINA EYEING KEY U.S. PORT? Gen. Thomas Waldhauser, head of U.S. Africa Command, said he is concerned China will make a move to control a seaport in Djibouti that services Camp Lemonnier, the hub of American military operations on the continent. The Djiboutian government, which is deeply indebted to China, seized the port of Doraleh last week as part of a dispute with a company in the United Arab Emirates. Waldhauser said the U.S. is watching closely whether it turns over control to China, as some local press reports suggested.  

“If the Chinese took over that port, the consequences could be significant if there were some restrictions on our ability to use that, because obviously the supplies that come in not only take care of Camp Lemonnier and other places inside the continent, it is a huge activity there,” Waldhauser said. “Moreover, our U.S. Navy ships come in and out of there to refuel and whatnot. There could be some consequences, that is why it is important to watch this.”

So far, the Djibouti government has assured U.S. diplomats that there is no intention to turn over control to China.

NO NIGER AMBUSH UPDATE: Waldhauser confirmed to House Armed Services that he has completed an “exhaustive” investigation into the ambush in Niger in October that killed four U.S. soldiers. But Rep. Mac Thornberry, the committee chairman, made clear to members up front that the general would not be providing any details of the findings during his more than two hours of testimony Tuesday.

The Associated Press reported that the mission with Army Green Berets had targeted a local leader of an extremist group and did not get proper authorization in advance. “Once the secretary completes his review and the families have been briefed, I intend to provide a comprehensive and detailed account of the investigation to you as soon as possible,” Waldhauser told Thornberry. He told the committee he had no estimate on the timeline for the Niger report release but said it will include an animated video depicting the incident.

OPERATIONAL PAUSE: The Pentagon admitted this week that the Turkish offensive in the Afrin region of northern Syria has drawn thousands of Kurdish fighters away from the front lines, slowing the U.S. effort to finish off the Islamic State and resulting in what the Pentagon euphemistically called an “operational pause.” Airstrikes continue and Arab fighters that make up part of the Syrian Democratic Forces remain, but many of the Kurdish YPG militias have returned to the west to defend their homes. Operational pauses occur from time to time, explained spokesman Col. Rob Manning, who insisted the pause will not prevent the U.S. and its partners from eliminating the last pockets of ISIS resistance in Syria’s Middle Euphrates River Valley.

The Washington Post reports this morning that the Kurds — who the U.S. has called the most effective forces on the battlefield — feel betrayed. “The international coalition let us down,” Kurdish leader Aldar Xelil told the Post. “They did not do what we expected them to do for us after a very long partnership.”

“We are allies. The Americans should have helped us. We were allies for a very long time,” he added. “For one and a half months we have been under attack by Turkey. Turkey is using NATO weapons to attack an American ally. We were partners in the fight against [the Islamic State], and they did not do anything to help us.”

AWARE OF THE RUSSIA THREAT: Trump’s administration is “fully aware” of the threat of Russian interference in the 2018 election cycle, Coats told the Senate Armed Services Committee in his testimony yesterday. “There obviously is concern about this ongoing effort of Russians to interfere with our elections. The White House is well aware of that, as we all are, and agencies have been tasked to address this.” Asked for specifics, Coats said, “Much of what is being done, or is being examined to be done, would fall in the classified area.”

TARGETING SATELLITES: China and Russia are developing weapons that could destroy American satellites in the event of an approaching conflict, Ashley also warned lawmakers Tuesday. “That is integral to their strategies,” he said. Ashley and Coats agreed the United States has a “significant advantage” over Chinese and Russian space capabilities. But, in the short term, both adversaries intend to neutralize that inequality with anti-satellite weaponry, which would wreak havoc on GPS systems and other satellite-based technology used by the private and military sectors.

AND AIRCRAFT CARRIERS: The era of the American aircraft carrier as the premier embodiment of military might could be ending unless the U.S. develops defenses for the next generation of highly maneuverable, super-fast hypersonic weapons under development by Russia and China, according to the Pentagon’s top weapons researcher. Michael Griffin, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering, said China is spending billions to develop a non-nuclear version of the weapons that could render U.S. aircraft carriers vulnerable to attack.

“When the Chinese can deploy tactical or regional hypersonic systems, they hold at risk our carrier battle groups. They hold our entire surface fleet at risk. They hold at risk our forward-deployed land-based forces,” Griffin told the annual McAleese-Credit Suisse Defense Conference.

FIGHTING THE FISCAL YEAR: “Why does the fiscal year begin Oct 1?,” Rep. Mike Turner asked at the McAleese Defense Conference. “It’s not in the Constitution.” Turner has introduced a bill to budget by calendar year instead, arguing the current fiscal year that ends Sept. 30 is “building in three months of failure” into the process. Why do I think there’s an obvious flaw in his thinking?

THE RUNDOWN

Defense One: Pentagon May Create a Combatant Command for Space

AP: Tillerson heads to Africa with explaining to do for Trump

Business Insider: ‘The Russian bear came out of hibernation’: The US’s top intelligence official issues an ominous warning to Congress

Defense News: Missile defense failure might prove a good thing for SM-3 IIA in the long run, says MDA head

Army Times: Army to base new Futures Command in major city, blend tech and academic cultures

New York Times: U.N. Panel Links Russia to Potential War Crime in Syria

Breaking Defense: China Loves DoD Acquisition Culture, Says R&D Chief Griffin

USNI News: Lawmakers Not Satisfied with Navy 355-Ship Plan

Defense News: Congress to ‘balance’ JSTARS recap with somethings new, key lawmaker says

Marine Corps Times: Female Marines to enter MCT at Camp Pendleton for first time

Reuters: Top U.S. intel official insists White House engaged on election security

Military.com: Five Months After Ambush, US Troops in Niger Still Don’t Get Danger Pay

Navy Times: US Navy to scrap scores of fighter jets from its inventory

Task and Purpose: The Wreckage Of One Of America’s Most Storied World War II Aircraft Carriers Was Just Discovered