What next? Awaiting Iran’s next move

TRUMP THREATENS ‘DISPROPORTIONATE’ RESPONSE: In a tweet Saturday Trump warned “if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets, we have targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture.”

Yesterday he added in a separate tweet that the U.S. would respond “perhaps in a disproportionate manner.” Targeting cultural sites and responding disproportionately are both violations of the law of armed conflict, but speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Trump brushed aside the concerns.

“They’re allowed to kill our people. They’re allowed to torture and maim our people. They’re allowed to use roadside bombs and blow up our people. And we’re not allowed to touch their cultural sites? It doesn’t work that way,” he said.

POMPEO: ‘WE’LL BEHAVE LAWFULLY’: On ABC, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo insisted the U.S. would not be committing war crimes. “We’ll behave lawfully. We’ll behave inside the system,” he said. “We always have, and we always will.”

Pressed by host George Stephanopoulos, Pompeo added, “I’ve seen what we are planning in terms of the target set … The American people should know that every target that we strike will be a lawful target, and it will be a target designed at the singular mission of protecting and defending America. President Trump has been diligent about that. He doesn’t want war.”

IRAN’S RESPONSE: “If he says 52 we say 300,” Maj. Gen. Hossein Dehghan military adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, told CNN in an interview Sunday. “No American military staff, no American political center, no American military base, no American vessel will be safe.”

“The only thing that can end this period of war is for the Americans to receive a blow that is equal to the blow they have inflicted. Afterward they should not seek a new cycle,” he said.

COUNTER ISIS OPS PAUSED: In response to the direct threat to U.S. facilities, the counter-ISIS coalition has halted operations against ISIS and has refocused on force protection.

“We are now fully committed to protecting the Iraqi bases that host Coalition troops,” said a statement from Combined Joint Task Force – Inherent Resolve. “This has limited our capacity to conduct training with partners and to support their operations against Daesh and we have therefore paused these activities, subject to continuous review.”

The U.S.-led coalition said it remains “resolute as partners of the Government of Iraq,” and “ready to return our full attention and efforts back to our shared goal of ensuring the lasting defeat of Daesh [ISIS].’

WELCOME MAT PULLED: Iraq remains furious that the U.S. — which is in Iraq as an invited guest — violated Iraqi sovereignty by carrying out the attack on Iraqi soil, without consultation or permission from the Iraqi government. In response the Iraqi parliament has passed a non-binding resolution disinviting the 5,000 American troops there and revoking their request for U.S. military assistance.

In his chat with reporters on Air Force One, Trump said if Iraq follows through and expels U.S. forces he would punish them with economic sanctions.

“We will charge them sanctions like they’ve never seen before ever. It’ll make Iranian sanctions look somewhat tame,” he said. “If there’s any hostility, that they do anything we think is inappropriate, we are going to put sanctions on Iraq, very big sanctions on Iraq.”

TRUMP TO CONGRESS: ‘READ MY TWEETS’: Democratic members of Congress continue to complain that the White House failed to inform congressional leaders prior to the attack, in particular the so-called Gang or Eight of senators — four Republican and four Democrats — who are typically briefed on intelligence matters by the executive branch.

Trump suggested they need only read his twitter feed to keep up with what he’s doing. “These Media Posts will serve as notification to the United States Congress that should Iran strike any U.S. person or target, the United States will quickly & fully strike back, & perhaps in a disproportionate manner,” he said “Such legal notice is not required, but is given nevertheless!”

DEMS TO TRUMP: ‘YOU’RE NOT A DICTATOR’: “This Media Post will serve as a reminder that war powers reside in the Congress under the United States Constitution. And that you should read the War Powers Act. And that you’re not a dictator,” replied the official twitter account of the House Foreign affairs committee.

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Susan Katz Keating (@SKatzKeating). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has called alliance ambassadors to Brussels today for an urgent meeting to discuss the aftermath of the U.S. drone strike that killed Soleimani.

Stoltenberg is scheduled to speak to the press at 10:30 a.m. EST, and his remarks will be streamed live on the NATO website.

ALSO TODAY: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo meets with Saudi Deputy Minister of Defense Khalid bin Salman Al Saud, at the Department of State.

WHERE’S THE EVIDENCE? While there is bipartisan agreement that Revolutionary Guards commander Qassem Soleimani was an enemy of the United States, with the blood of hundreds of American troops on his hands, Democrats continue to question whether it was necessary to kill him now, and whether his death, however justified, makes the U.S. safer or sets in motion an escalatory cycle that makes war with Iran more likely.

“Look, everybody knows that Soleimani was a very bad, despicable guy. There’s no debate there. But the claim of an imminent threat they have not supported, and what we do know is this dramatic escalation is now putting Americans at greater risk,” said Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen on Fox News Sunday.

“Why not kill him?” asked host Chris Wallace.

“Because you have to look at what the consequences are, right? We don’t go around killing all the very bad people in the world,” Van Hollen answered.

THEY’VE SEEN IT: Secretary of State Pompeo, who made the rounds of all the Sunday morning talk shows, insisted the evidence that Soleimani was acting plotting a significant attack was clear and convincing.

“I don’t think any reasonable American elected official would see what President Trump and I and [Defense] Secretary [Mark] Esper saw and conclude that we could have done anything but the action that we took,” he said on Face the Nation.

Pompeo said the intelligence has been shared with Congress in classified form. “The congressional leadership has certainly seen it. Those members who have come back will get to see most all of that same information,” he said, insisting that some intelligence has to be kept secret to protect sources and methods. “We understand the obligation to share with the American people why it is we’re taking the actions we can and we will do so,” he added.

WAR POWERS RESOLUTION: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says in a letter to colleagues that the House will vote this week on a War Powers Resolution to limit President Trump’s military actions regarding Iran.

The resolution will be introduced by Michigan Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a former CIA and Pentagon analyst, and will mirror a similar resolution introduced in the Senate last week by Virginia’s Tim Kaine.

“We are concerned the Administration took this action without the consultation of Congress and without respect for Congress’s war powers granted to it by the Constitution,” Pelosi said.“It reasserts Congress’s long-established oversight responsibilities by mandating that if no further Congressional action is taken, the Administration’s military hostilities with regard to Iran cease within 30 days.”

ATTACK IN KENYA: An attack Sunday by al-Shabaab, an al-Qaida group in East Africa, has killed one American service member and two Pentagon contractors at a highly fortified military base in Manda Bay, Kenya, according to the U.S. Africa Command.

“In addition, two Department of Defense members were wounded. The wounded Americans are currently in stable condition and being evacuated,” a statement said.

“The attack on the compound today involved indirect and small arms fire. After an initial penetration of the perimeter, Kenya Defense Forces and U.S. Africa Command repelled the al-Shabaab attack,” said AFRICOM. “Reports indicate that six contractor-operated civilian aircraft were damaged to some degree.”

The attack comes two weeks after the New York Times reported that the Pentagon is weighing a major reduction — or even a complete pullout — of American forces from West Africa, as part of a shift to focus less on battling distant terrorist groups, and more on confronting Russia and China.

WEAPON OF CHOICE: A laser-guided Hellfire missile traveling at 230 mph killed Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in his car outside the Baghdad International Airport on Thursday.

The missile came from an MQ-9 Reaper drone made by U.S. company General Atomics. The $70 million drone plane carries a payload of four laser-guided Hellfire missiles.

Experts say the MQ-9 Reaper is “nearly silent” and that Soleimani wouldn’t have heard anything before the strike.

“The MQ-9 Reaper is the perfect weapon system for this job and highlights airpower’s ability to project accurate, timely, and lethal power,” retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula told the Washington Examiner.

TRACKING FOREIGN ARMS SALES: The State Department’s Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance has posted of WMEAT 2019, the 37th edition of the State Department’s World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers publication, covering the years 2007-2017, on the State Department’s website.

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Target America: Iran to abandon nuclear deal and step up uranium enrichment

Washington Examiner: ‘Raises more questions than it answers’: Pelosi slams Trump over classified notice of Soleimani strike

AP: Iraq vote, Hezbollah threat leveled at US troops in Mideast

Wall Street Journal: Iran Lacks Allies in Confronting the U.S.

AP: Iran general steps out of Soleimani’s shadow to lead proxies

USNI News: USS Bataan, Marines 26th MEU Heading to Middle East Amid Tensions with Iran

Defense One: Increased Tensions With Iran Could Boost Defense Spending

Talk Radio News: Three defense secretaries, one interventionist boss and a year of living perilously

Fifth Domain: ‘They’re Going To Want Bloodshed’: 5 Ways Iran Could Retaliate In Cyberspace

Washington Examiner: US military strike in Iraq revives talk of war vote

Breaking Defense: Israelis: Soleimani Intercept Sparked Drone Strike; US Reinforces Region

New York Times: Opinion: Trump Kills Iran’s Most Overrated Warrior

Reuters: Trump Doubts North Korea Leader Will Break Promises On Denuclearization

Washington Post: Fort Belvoir mold problem has uprooted families waiting for answers after several months

Calendar

MONDAY | JANUARY 6

9:30 a.m. 1025 Connecticut Ave. N.W. — Center for the National Interest discussion “North Korea in 2020: Fire and Fury or a Path Towards Peace?” with keynote address by Moon Chung-in, special adviser to Korean President Moon Jae-in. https://cftni.org/category/recent-events

12 p.m. 1025 Connecticut Ave. N.W. — SETA Foundation discussion “Turkey’s Mediterranean Policy,” with Burhanettin Duran, general coordinator of the SETA Foundation; Cagri Erhan, rector of Altinbas University and member of Turkey’s Presidential Foreign Policy and Security Committee; and Kilic Kanat, research director of the SETA Foundation at Washington D.C. https://setadc.org/events

6 p.m. 4301 Wilson Blvd., Arl. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance discussion with Darren Dick, intelligence director in the Office of the Defense Secretary’s Strategic Capabilities Office. https://www.insaonline.org/event

TUESDAY| JANUARY 7

10:15 a.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. — Atlantic Council discussion with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who is in Washington to meet with President Trump at the White House. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event

12 p.m. 1025 Connecticut Ave. N.W. — SETA Foundation discussion ”The Day after Soleimani: Are the U.S. and Iran Headed to War?” with Luke Coffey, director, Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy; Kilic B. Kanat, research director, SETA Foundation D.C.; Trita Parsi, executive vice president, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft; Mark Perry, independent author and journalist; moderated by Kadir Ustun, executive director, SETA Foundation D.C. https://www.eventbrite.com

2 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — Hudson Institute discussion “Updating U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation,” with former Western Army of Japan Commander Lt. Gen. Koichiro Bansho, senior adviser at the Marubeni Corporation; former Japanese Minister of Defense Satoshi Morimoto; Sheila Smith, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations; Sugio Takahashi, chief of the National Institute for Defense Studies’ Policy Simulation Division; retired Army Lt. Gen. and former White House National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster, Japan chair at Hudson; and Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events

WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 8

10:30 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research book discussion on “Seven Pillars: What Really Causes Instability in the Middle East?” with co-author Michael Rubin, resident scholar at AEI; co-author Brian Katulis, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress; A. Kadir Yildirim, fellow at the Rice University Baker Institute for Public Policy; and Carol Giacomo, editorial writer at the New York Times. http://www.aei.org

2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies forum “Strategic Japan: Shaping the Rules Based Order in the Reiwa Era.” https://www.csis.org/events

7 p.m. 5015 Connecticut Ave. N.W. — Politics and Prose book discussion on “The Age of Illusions: How America Squandered Its Cold War Victory,” with author Andrew Bacevich, professor emeritus of history and international relations at Boston University. https://www.politics-prose.com/event

THURSDAY | JANUARY 9

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion “Examining NASA’s Role in U.S. Foreign Policy, with NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine; and Todd Harrison, director of the CSIS Aerospace Security Project. https://www.csis.org/events

11 a.m. 7777 Arundel Mills Blvd., Hanover, Md. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association discussion, with Dave Frederick, deputy director of the National Security Agency’s Cybersecurity Directorate. https://events.r20.constantcontact.com/register

2 p.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. — Atlantic Council discussion “U.S.-Iran Tensions Rising with Iraq in the Middle,” with Abbas Kadhim, director of the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative; Barbara Slavin, director of the Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative; William Wechsler, director of the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center; and Thomas Warrick, nonresident senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event

5 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “2020 Challenges Ahead,” with Kathleen Hicks, director of the CSIS International Security Program; Stephanie Segal, chair in political economy at CSIS; Sarah Ladislaw, director of the CSIS Energy and National Security Program; Beverly Kirk, director of the CSIS Smart Women, Smart Power Initiative; and Bob Schieffer, former host of CBS News’ “Face the Nation.” https://www.csis.org/events

FRIDAY | JANUARY 10

8:30 a.m. 300 First St. S.E. — Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Space Power to the Warfighter” seminar, with Air Force Maj. Gen. John Shaw, combined force space component commander of U.S. Space Command and commander of 14th Air Force. http://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/events

9 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Brookings Institution discussion “The Army’s Strategy in the Indo-Pacific,” with Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy; and Michael O’Hanlon, senior foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/events