Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a battle for a key demographic that has been safely in the camp of the Democrats for more than a decade: Latinos.

The bloc, which is one of the fastest-growing voting demographics in the United States, has moved in favor of Republicans in recent cycles, with the economy its chief concern — an issue Trump has made a cornerstone of his campaign.

Democrats have won the lion’s share of Latino votes in every presidential election going back to Jimmy Carter, who won 82% of the vote in 1976. This has fluctuated over time, with Republicans seeing their highest vote share, at 44%, in 2004 during then-President George W. Bush’s reelection campaign. 

Bush has been the only Republican nominee to break past the 40% threshold among Latinos in modern history. Now Trump could be on track to earn just below that, with some polling putting him exactly at the 40% benchmark. The 40% threshold for a Republican nominee is largely considered the mark of victory for the party when courting Latino voters, whereas Democrats have seen their high points with the demographic reach into the 70% range.

But with more than 36 million Latino voters eligible to vote in 2024, an increase from 32.3 million in 2020, the demographic’s shift is undeniable.