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President Donald Trump should replicate his strategy for ending the Israel–Hamas conflict to end the war in Ukraine.
Following Russia’s unprovoked full-scale invasion in February 2022, the war in Ukraine has raged for more than three and a half years. Hundreds of thousands have been killed on both sides, with Russian combat deaths now between 200,000 and 300,000. The conflict remains an essential stalemate with Russian forces making only meager territorial gains. And while Russia retains a clear advantage in terms of military power and materiel, Ukraine’s defensive posture is supported by increasingly effective strikes on Russian energy and logistics arteries. From an outside perspective, the appeal of peace should be obvious.
Not so in the minds of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The overarching challenge?
Putin refuses to accept that any peace deal should see Ukraine retain all the territory currently under its control and receive meaningful security guarantees to prevent a future Russian invasion. Instead, Putin continues to make maximalist demands that would entail the effective neutering of Ukraine as a sovereign democratic state. Putin also demands Ukraine’s dislocation from Western means of deterring a future Russian attack five, ten, or fifteen years down the road. Albeit to a much lesser degree, Zelensky also sometimes complicates peace efforts. He does so by making his own infeasible demands, such as by suggesting that Ukraine will not have to make any painful concessions.
Trump must alter the calculations of both these leaders. That brings us to the president’s recent diplomatic success in the Middle East.
PHASE TWO OF ISRAEL-HAMAS DEAL REQUIRES TRUMP’S PATIENT FORTITUDE
Trump’s historic success in bringing about the Israel-Hamas ceasefire didn’t come by chance. It took Trump taking personal ownership of efforts to end the conflict. Trump then pressured the aggressor in that conflict, Hamas, to release its remaining Israeli hostages. But he also introduced calculated pressure on Israel to make its own concessions.
The results have been hugely beneficial: freedom for long-suffering hostages, the suspension of a bloody war, and the prospect of a more enduring and mutually prosperous peace. While successfully implementing phase two of Trump’s agreement will be fraught with challenges, there is hope. As the Washington Examiner editorialized this week, Trump is rightly supporting Israeli retaliation against Hamas attacks while warning Hamas that his patience with its antics is growing thin. But Trump is also pressuring Israel to avoid a return to major combat operations.
This approach has three key benefits. First, it preserves Israel’s right to defend itself against terrorist attacks. Second, it retains Trump’s credibility with America’s Arab allies. Those partners received Trump’s pledge that he would do everything feasible to maintain the ceasefire if they increased pressure on Hamas to release the hostages. By showing that his word here is true, Trump earns the leverage to push these allies to do more to disarm Hamas if progress remains fleeting. Third, Trump uses his unmatched political capital to create a bubble of limited time in which phase two negotiations might advance. As he continues prioritizing progress toward implementing phase two of the agreement, a point underlined by his dispatch of Vice President JD Vance to Israel this week, Trump lets every actor know that his determination remains strong. For a president prone to distraction, understanding Trump’s continued attention carries important weight.
Trump should now apply a similar approach toward ending the war in Ukraine.
The first step is for Trump to recognize that, like Hamas with former president Joe Biden, Putin is playing him. To his credit, Trump has suspended plans for new talks with Putin in Hungary. The Trump administration has apparently realized that Putin remains unwilling to make serious concessions. Yet, the fact that Trump only last week celebrated the prospect of such talks as a major development proves something: Putin has repeatedly manipulated Trump.
The Russian leader has taken advantage of Trump’s belief that foreign policy is essentially a continuation of commerce via other means. In so doing, Putin has successfully deflected Trump’s demands that he make concessions to end the war. This textbook KGB-manipulation strategy, one Putin was inculcated with during his study at the former Soviet spy service’s Red Banner Institute in 1984, uses Trump’s ego as a lever with which to avoid actually making concessions. No foreign intelligence service has ever reveled in manipulating rhetoric against reality as much as the KGB. No modern leader has done it so well with American presidents as Putin.
Similarly, consider how Hamas avoided surrendering its hostages until Trump made clear both to the terrorist group and to America’s Arab allies that the game was up. He staked his personal capital and America’s political capital on a binary choice between the hostages being freed or devastating regional consequences following. Trump also pressured Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to a deal in which Hamas’s disarmament would be left to the phase two negotiations. Trump is now using pressure on both sides to give those second steps a chance at success.
Replicating this strategy, Trump should focus on getting Russia to agree to an immediate thirty-day ceasefire. He should demand that European nations join secondary sanctions on countries that import Russian energy supplies above certain levels, accounting for the EU’s continued importation of some Russian energy supplies. Trump should make clear that America cannot be expected to robustly counter Russia if Europe is unwilling to do the same.
But there is a recipe for success here: Trump’s tariffs on Indian imports of Russian oil are beginning to bear fruit. Trump should then give Putin one week to agree to a ceasefire or warn him that if he does not, he will introduce new sanctions on Russia’s central bank and will demand the transfer of all seized Russian assets to Ukraine.
If Putin does not agree to these terms, Trump and America’s European allies should move to impose maximum pressure on Russia’s economy. They could also increase the provision of weapons to Ukraine, including a limited number of Tomahawk missiles. Trump is correct in saying that the U.S. also needs these weapons. Trump can also make clear to Putin, as he has already to a degree, that future threats of Russian nuclear blackmail won’t move him.
If Putin agrees to a ceasefire, Trump can enter a phase two negotiating stance with both nations. A phase two agreement could focus on freezing the current lines of territorial control and providing de facto, if not de jure, recognition of Russian control over occupied Ukrainian territory. In return, Russia would agree to reparations to Ukraine, either directly or indirectly via seized Russian assets. Ukraine would understandably despise these concessions. Still, Trump should make clear that this is the deal to be made.
To compensate for Ukraine’s sacrifice, Trump could enforce Putin’s acceptance of the deployment of a European-led assurance force to Ukraine. This force would assure Ukraine that what happened in 2014 and 2022, where Russia invaded its territory after promising never to do so, won’t happen again. Trump should not deploy U.S. troops to Ukraine but should clarify that any Russian attacks on European peacekeepers will lead to a U.S. military intervention against Russia. While some sanctions relief for Russia could be frontloaded, key elements could also be tethered to Putin’s verified compliance with the agreement.
PEER-REVIEWED STUDIES SUGGEST UFOS PHOTOGRAPHED IN ORBIT PRIOR TO SPACE AGE
This strategy could work for the same reasons that Trump’s strategy regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict is working, namely, by leveraging U.S. allies alongside Trump’s clarity of purpose in getting results. American power is not infinite, but it is immense.
Faced with this comprehensive new pressure, Russia and, to a lesser degree, Ukraine can be cajoled toward meaningful peace. Only a lunatic could say that Trump wouldn’t then deserve the Nobel Peace Prize.
