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Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), an early front-runner for the 2028 Democratic nomination, may have dominated national headlines this year, but insiders say Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) could be the one with staying power.
Over the past several weeks, Shapiro, who is rumored to be eyeing a White House bid, has surged into the spotlight, first by pushing back on former Vice President Kamala Harris’s new book, then by strongly weighing in on the political violence spreading across the country. He has also taken President Donald Trump to task over divisive policies and a sluggish economy while meticulously building a national profile based on results and electability.
‘His time to run’
“Now is certainly his time to run,” political strategist Kaivan Shroff told the Washington Examiner. “In a time of such uncertainty, I think most candidates with a high profile will err on the side of shooting their shot.”
Shapiro, who won his 2022 gubernatorial campaign by double digits, has become Pennsylvania’s most popular politician by insisting that the government can still deliver for the people. He has a record that backs it up, including everything from cutting bipartisan deals to decreasing homelessness to reopening a collapsed stretch of highway in just 12 days.
“That is the currency that matters in a splintered electorate, and it is why his strength in Pennsylvania is no fluke — it’s a sign,” California-based political expert Jamie E. Wright told the Washington Examiner. “For someone who’s looking at 2028, this is when you start to try to write the national narrative.”
Her advice to Shapiro is to resist the theatrics that some Democratic rivals have embraced and avoid using controversy as political currency. “In a party seeking a steady hand and a unifying voice, Shapiro is no longer an underdog,” Wright said, cautioning that he occupies a lane that “will not remain open indefinitely.”
Political strategist Michael Fahey agreed, stressing that Shapiro must carefully time his rise on the national stage.
“If you start too early, you’re putting yourself in the front lines for constant scrutiny, but wait too long, and you risk not gaining enough momentum to get over the finish line,” he told the Washington Examiner. “The window for 2028 is slowly but surely opening. In no time, exploratory committees will start looking into donors and approval. From where I’m sitting, Josh Shapiro seems to be making all the right moves without fully declaring his intention, which is brilliant positioning.”
As Shapiro navigates the crucial months ahead, Democratic strategists such as Nick E. Smith say he should be laser-focused on “burnishing his credentials as an executive who delivers results” and craft a rollout strategy that doesn’t rely on “tearing down former Vice President Kamala Harris or Gov. Newsom.”
“This is the moment for him to be disciplined and organized,” Smith told the Washington Examiner. “He has to prove he’s a charismatic fighter. He hasn’t shown that yet, but he’s got to do it.”
Shroff also believes Shapiro could use a little fine-tuning in his people skills. “Shapiro has certainly benefited from 2028 speculation over the past several months, but I think his biggest challenge is how he comes across,” he said. “He has a strong record to run on, but from the [former President Barack] Obama-sounding voice to the jabs at Harris, I’m not sure he delivers in terms of charisma and likability. His content, sports posts, and efforts to win over folks on personality feel like just that, an effort.”
Fahey countered that Shapiro’s brand of centrism has been resonating across party lines and outweighs the negatives, giving him the edge over his competitors. “What makes Shapiro interesting for 2028 is that he’s threading a needle few Democrats could ever manage: he’s progressive enough for the base while genuinely connecting with working-class voters who’ve drifted Republican,” he said. “And to me, there’s no better geographical space to be doing this than in Pennsylvania.”
Pennsylvania is a must-win for Democrats in 2028
The critical swing state is a near necessity for Democrats if they hope to win in 2028. It has the largest electoral prize among the key battleground states, and the last three presidential elections have been decided there by very tight margins. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 and 2024, while former President Joe Biden won in 2020. Shapiro had been floated as a possible running mate for Harris in 2024, but she ultimately went with Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN). Harris’s 107-day sprint to the White House ended in disaster for Democrats, an outcome the party is eager to avoid repeating.
Currently, the Democratic field lacks a clear front-runner, a reality that cuts both ways for Shapiro. It gives him some breathing room to refine his approach, but it also means he’s competing against rivals with far greater name recognition who are already signaling their intentions.
Newsom, who is termed out of office next year but recently notched a major redistricting victory, where he name-checked Trump frequently, told CBS News that he’s weighing a presidential bid. “I’d be lying otherwise,” he said. “I’d just be lying, and I can’t do that.”
Sen. Cory Booker(D-NJ) also suggested a White House run may be in his future, telling Fox News, “Of course I’m thinking about it. I haven’t ruled it out.”
Other Democrats who’ve indicated they’re considering a run include Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, and Hawaii Gov. Josh Green. Harris, who became the party’s 2024 nominee after Biden stepped aside, has not ruled out seeking the nomination for a third time.
2026 gubernatorial race
Before Shapiro starts rolling out his plans for the White House, he will have to win reelection next year. The governor, whose last election loss was in the 11th grade, hit an enviable 60% job approval in October, his highest rating ever, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters in Pennsylvania. Shapiro, who has not yet declared if he is running again, will likely face Republican challenger and staunch Trump supporter Stacy Garrity, Pennsylvania’s current state treasurer.
Garrity, a two-term incumbent, slammed Shapiro in her campaign kickoff video, claiming he was more invested in getting into the White House than in the daily problems facing Pennsylvanians.
“While Josh Shapiro has been spending his time running for president and fundraising in California and other liberal states, raising money from far-left mega donors like [Michael] Bloomberg and [George] Soros, critical problems in Pennsylvania have been ignored,” the narrator in the spot said.
It’s an accusation Shapiro’s supporters are quick to push back on. Since being elected governor, Shapiro has worked to build a brand around helping people who are often overlooked or marginalized. One of his first acts was to drop the state’s college-degree requirement for nearly all public-sector jobs. He also doubled funding for vocational training programs, expanded grants to help farmers, and worked with conservative lawmakers to end the state’s Sunday hunting ban.
Ashleigh Ewald, a Gen Z content creator for Harris’s 2024 campaign, told the Washington Examiner that Shapiro’s rise nationally “makes a lot of sense” from what she’s been seeing locally, saying that Shapiro’s appeal isn’t about celebrity or performative politics but instead focused on delivering results in real time.
“Democrats were often afraid to be direct, afraid to offend, and afraid to counter Republican narratives with equal force,” she said. “Some activists argue the party should move further left, but from my experience talking with rural voters, working-class voters, and especially Gen Z voters outside major metro areas, the winning strategy isn’t ideological escalation — it’s clarity and competence. People are struggling with inflation, cuts to support programs like [the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program], and rising costs. Voters want leaders who talk plainly and act decisively on economic issues.”
Getting involved in Pennsylvania’s Democratic Party
Shapiro spent a chunk of the year upping his involvement in the Keystone State’s Democratic Party. In the past, the governor has avoided getting pulled into the inner workings of the state organization, which has struggled to raise money and been dogged by internal complaints of incompetence.
Shapiro helped remove the sitting state committee chairman and backed a close ally to replace him. He also installed his longtime aide, Larry Hailsham Jr., as the party’s new executive director.
“I think he feels that he has an obligation to help Democrats get the majority back in the House,” Larry Ceisler, a Philadelphia-based public affairs executive who’s known Shapiro for decades, told Axios. “If that helps him politically, that’s great too.”
Political strategist Mike Nellis told the Washington Examiner he’s eager to see how things shake out in the primary with the East Coast governor.
“I think Shapiro has a great chance to be the Democratic nominee,” he said. “He’s done an incredible job in the state of Pennsylvania. To me, the profile of a Democrat who can do really well in the general election in 2028 is someone with a proven record of bringing people together, a proven record of getting stuff done, and someone who understands what most Americans are going through right now.”
Ewald went a step further, saying Democrats should take lessons from Shapiro. “If Democrats are looking for a model for 2028, Shapiro’s style could be a blueprint,” she said. “Whether or not he runs, he represents the direction many voters, including many Gen Z voters, actually want the party to move.”
