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History teaches us that the 2026 midterm elections are unlikely to prove successful for Republicans. The opposition almost always performs well in the cycle following a presidential election, thanks to an angrier, more motivated base and because swing voters tend to like checks and balances. This dynamic is even more potent when the president’s team controls all of Washington, as Republicans do now. The deck truly gets stacked under these circumstances when the public is also broadly dissatisfied with the chief executive and the direction of the country.
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