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The war in Iran is highly likely to last at least until early April and probably longer. President Donald Trump appears to have decided that an immediate ceasefire would come at too high a price. Instead, Trump and Israel are focused on further degrading Iran’s military power, eliminating upper regime ranks, and defeating Iranian efforts to shut down the Strait of Hormuz.
This is a poorly conceived war. While it is taking heavy losses, the Iranian regime is maintaining its grip on power and denying the United States and Israel a decisive victory. Still, Trump is rightly skeptical of an immediate peace deal.
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Any military campaign must be sustained until Iran’s new ultra-hardline supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is eliminated and Iranian forces around the Strait of Hormuz are neutered. Absent these specific effects, the reemergence of Iran’s major threats will only be slightly delayed following any peace agreement. Failure would also suggest to China that Trump lacks the mettle to withstand even a slightly difficult war. It is imperative that Chinese President Xi Jinping not adopt that understanding as he contemplates when to move on Taiwan.
The Iranian hard-liner elite, concentrated in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, senses that they have the initiative. Although they continue to suffer grave losses to their nuclear, missile, military, and leadership structures, the regime is heartened by its endurance. There has been no sign of a popular uprising against the regime, for example. And although at a declining rate, Iranian drones also continue to strike targets across the Middle East.
Iranian forces also continue to have a significant impact on U.S. naval efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The regime clearly believes that its closure of this foremost energy chokepoint will lead American allies to pressure Trump into ending this war. Or that rising gas prices will see Trump abandon the war in fear of Republicans being routed in the November midterm congressional elections.
But Trump pushes on.
The security situation after this war is, predictably, far from guaranteed to be favorable to that which preceded it. But Trump deserves credit for balancing extrication from this war alongside longer-term U.S. interests. In that regard, there are three indications that Trump will continue the war into April.
First, continued Israeli decapitation strikes indicate that the U.S. and Israel clearly intend to eliminate as many of Iran’s top-ranking officials as possible.
Israel would not be carrying out these attacks without American approval. Trump’s admonition of Israel on Wednesday evening for attacking Iran’s Pars gas field, and his associated pledge that Israel will not carry out a similar attack, indicate his supreme command in this war. In turn, the continued killing of officials such as Iran’s intelligence chief and Ali Larijani, a possible replacement for Mojtaba Khamenei, indicates the Trump administration does not yet believe Iran is ready to reach an agreeable compromise. Trump wants a Venezuela-style resolution here in which a more practically minded leader takes over and then negotiates new nuclear and perhaps also ballistic missile agreements. If he believed that regime dynamics were shifting in favor of someone who might provide that leadership, the targeted killings would surely be declining in scale. After all, the most immediate effect of these strikes is not to encourage conciliation, but rather to harden regime resolve.
Second, there’s the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit’s movement from the Pacific to the Persian Gulf. Alongside other reinforcing ground combat units, this deployment indicates that the Pentagon is preparing for an amphibious assault on Kharg Island and, though far less likely, Qeshm Island.
Kharg is Iran’s irreplaceable energy export terminal. Qeshm hosts key units tasked with targeting Hormuz-bound maritime traffic. Without Kharg, the regime would lose its already heavily restricted ability to sell oil and generate foreign capital, resulting in an end to the regime’s ability to purchase key imports.
The 31st MEU will not arrive until early next week at the earliest, however. The force will then spend several days developing its intelligence and other pre-action preparations. Other forces, such as the 1st Battalion, 75th Ranger Regiment, might also be expected to raise their readiness or forward deploy prior to any Kharg operation. Yes, Trump may be deploying this MEU partly to gain diplomatic leverage over Iran. That said, simply moving the 31st MEU raises “boots on the ground” political complexities that Trump might otherwise wish to avoid in an election year.
Third, Trump’s rhetoric about the war has shifted noticeably.
One week ago, the president was pledging that the war was nearly over and that there was “practically nothing left to target.” By contrast, Trump has been noticeably more cautious this week. Asked by PBS when the war might end, Trump responded, “I never want to say that because if I’m two days late, you’ll criticize me.” Trump added on Tuesday, “We’re not ready to leave yet.”
Though it is a tangential observation, Trump also appears more comfortable with how the war is progressing than he did last week. But again, Trump knows this war is politically risky within the context of the midterm elections and inside elements of his own MAGA base. His narrative shaping suggests a desire to prepare Americans for more combat to come.
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Ultimately, Trump will decide how and when this war ends.
His objectives are narrower than those of Israel, which, counter to U.S. interests, would have little issue with state failure or civil war-related chaos in Iran. But all the indications are that Trump will continue this campaign for at least a few more weeks.
