On Friday, the Interior Department’s Bureau of Land Management was set to hold an oil and gas lease sale bid opening for tracts of land in the Coastal Plain of the wildlife refuge, also known as the 1002 area. The area stretches across 1.56 million acres, and at least 400,000 acres were to be made available.

The Trump administration has looked to Alaska as an avenue for achieving Trump’s energy dominance and trade agendas, increasing production of oil and gas as well as exports of those petroleum products to Asian allies. And over the last year and a half, the administration has used every tool available to expand fossil fuel production in the state.

In March, the administration held another lease sale on the other side of the North Slope borough for the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska, better known as NPR-A. The auction drew hundreds of bids and generated nearly $250 billion. 

While this was widely considered a major signal that the industry is interested in investing in northern Alaska, it has yet to be seen if large oil and gas companies such as ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, commonly referred to as “oil majors,” are willing to step into the untouched wildlife refuge.

An untouched refuge

Unlike the NPR-A, which first saw drilling and exploration activities in the 1940s, ANWR has only been available to the oil and gas industry for less than 10 years. 

Congress first authorized drilling in the region in 2017 through the Republican Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, though little action has been taken since. 

Trump approved nine lease sales in the refuge during his first administration, seven of which were suspended by his successor, former President Joe Biden. The remaining two were later canceled by bidding companies.

The Biden administration, which was required under the 2017 law to hold another lease sale, further sought to prevent fossil fuel development by imposing strict leasing requirements and blocking drilling on 1.2 million acres of the Coastal Plain.

When Biden’s Bureau of Land Management held a lease sale for the region in January 2025, the auction failed to receive any bids. 

The Democratic administration argued it was evidence of the industry losing interest in drilling in the wildlife refuge, but state officials claimed the auction requirements purposefully restricted oil and gas development.

Just before the auction took place, the state filed a lawsuit against the administration, claiming the available acreage was the minimum required under the 2017 law. State officials argued that, combined with existing restrictions on surface use, construction, and occupancy, the available acreage would have been “impossible or impracticable” to develop on. 

The Trump administration’s deregulatory actions aimed at reversing the Biden protections have been praised by the industry and advocates for increased energy development in the state. Yet they don’t guarantee that companies will invest to the extent the Trump team desires.

“Just because the lease sale happens doesn’t mean any development happens,” Philip Wight, an associate professor and energy and environmental historian at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, told the Washington Examiner.

Historically, drilling in Alaska has been far more expensive and difficult than in areas in the Lower 48, such as the Permian Basin in West Texas and parts of New Mexico.

An ExxonMobil spokesperson told the Washington Examiner the differences primarily lie in Alaska’s remote location, harsher climate, more limited infrastructure, longer timelines, and the need for specialized engineering. In the Permian Basin, on the other hand, there is shorter and more flexible development, the spokesperson said. 

“It is tremendously expensive to operate in the Arctic,” Wight said, explaining that everything developers use during their operations needs to be shipped up, and in some cases the whole road.

Given the Arctic climate, producers are only able to operate certain times of year, typically during the winter months, when the ground is solid, protecting fragile ecosystems and allowing for easier transportation. And due to rising temperatures brought about by climate change, that window is getting shorter, Wight said. 

Not only are developers thinking of climate-related challenges, but they also have to consider factors such as polar bears and costs associated with flying workers in and out due to the lack of permanent settlements. 

Even though many environmental protections have been lifted, producers also face the risk of legal challenges from green organizations, conservation activists, and other native communities in northern Alaska. 

Rosemary Ahtuangaruk, the former mayor of Nuiqsut in the NPR-A, has long rallied against oil and gas development in the North Slope, saying the ice roads created for such projects separate caribou herds, threatening the survival of young calves. 

The other established village located in ANWR, the Arctic Village, has also vehemently opposed fossil fuel development. Residents of the village, which is found at the very south of the refuge, have also argued oil and gas projects would threaten the migration patterns of caribou. This community heavily depends on caribou as part of its way of life, as its remote location is lacking in moose or salmon.

“None of these challenges are insurmountable. I think the industry over the past 50 years has demonstrated that,” Wight said.

However, he noted it does force developers to consider whether it is worth investing billions to develop new oil fields when there are proven resources available just a few hundred miles away to the west.

Economic opportunities

Kaktovik is the only village that sits in the Coastal Plain of ANWR, more than 600 miles north of Anchorage and roughly 90 miles west of the Canadian border. 

There is no main road connecting the remote village to the rest of the state, forcing its less than 300 residents to travel to and from the village by small plane or ship. 

Given its location, the village could end up seeing new drilling projects less than 50 miles away. And for most living in the outpost, they’re excited. 

Kaktovik, like other cities and villages located on the North Slope, relies heavily on tax revenue generated by resource development projects such as oil and gas drilling. More than 95% of the North Slope Borough’s budget comes from this revenue. 

Native leaders have said the revenue has allowed smaller villages to update and maintain modern sewer systems, build schools, and lengthen their average life expectancy. 

In Kaktovik, there is the hope that increased revenue from new oil and gas projects could help the village reduce its cost of living by using the funds to build a road connecting it to the rest of Alaska. 

As of last month, a carton of milk was selling for $23.60 a gallon in Kaktovik, according to data compiled by the Voice of the Arctic Inupiat that was obtained by the Washington Examiner. 

Gasoline, the price of which is set on the North Slope once or twice a year, was also selling for $7.50 a gallon in Kaktovik in May.  

“Now we’re not trying to get rich off this, we’re just trying to have the ability to make sure that we’re able to take care of our families and the future of the land and resources that we have been for generations, for millennia,” Charles Lampe, who is Inupiaq and was born and raised in Kaktovik, told the Washington Examiner. 

Nathan Gordon Jr., the mayor of Kaktovik, said increased tax revenue from oil and gas projects would primarily go toward upgrading the village’s existing infrastructure, such as its health clinic and police station.

“Improving the health and safety of our community is the main reason I’m in this position,” Gordon said.

Based on the tracts made available in Friday’s auction, the closest potential exploration and drilling projects could be around 30 miles away. The closest development to the village currently is around Point Thomson along the Beaufort Sea, roughly 50 to 60 miles away. 

While village leaders expect development to come closer to Kaktovik, it may not be for years if the lease sale is successful. 

“[One] thing that I think is a misconception also about the amount of land that’s up for the lease sale, they think just because the whole area is up for lease — that the whole area is going to be developed, or there’s going to be roads put in anywhere — that that’s going to disturb the wildlife,” Lampe said of critics. “And that’s not true at all.” 

Lampe defended the Iupiaq community in Kaktovik’s support for increased development, saying there is nothing they would do to try and endanger their land or animals. 

The community, however, he said, has to secure resources to provide for future generations. 

“There isn’t anyone else on this Earth that can tell the Inupiat of Kaktovik or any indigenous community anywhere how to take care of their own lands, because that’s what we’ve been doing for millennia,” he said. 

Furthering Trump’s agenda

Increasing oil and gas production in Alaska, whether it be in ANWR or elsewhere, is a crucial pillar of the Trump administration’s energy dominance agenda.

In addition to simply increasing domestic supply of oil and gas, Trump has sought to expand exports of energy from the U.S. abroad. Given its geographic location and resources, Alaska could be the solution to hit many of these goals.

Late last year, the United States and Japan signed a trade and investment agreement that included a pledge from Tokyo to invest $550 billion in U.S. sectors, including energy infrastructure, critical minerals mining, and liquefied natural gas. Private gas and energy firms in Japan have also signed a letter of intent signifying that they will buy millions of tons of LNG from a long-desired pipeline that would stretch from the North Slope to the south of Alaska.

The Trump administration is working alongside state officials to accelerate the development of the LNG pipeline, which would be able to transport any gas extracted from regions such as ANWR.

“We’re doing exactly what we’re supposed to do,” Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R-AK) previously told the Washington Examiner. “We are providing energy opportunities for our country, our state, and our Asian allies. … Our place on the globe is unlike any other. We’re nine hours from every industrialized place in the Northern Hemisphere, on this planet … so our place on the globe, our resource, just like Seward had intended, is coming to fruition as a result of the Trump administration.”

Remaining risk 

In the late 1960s, massive oil reserves were found in Prudhoe Bay, just west of the wildlife refuge. The oil field was originally estimated to have around 9.6 billion total recoverable reserves. In large part thanks to technological advancements, the industry has been able to extract more than 13 million barrels worth since it was discovered, making Prudhoe Bay home to the largest oil field in North America. 

This discovery, combined with the construction of the 800-mile Trans-Alaska Pipeline System, sparked rapid interest in whether neighboring ANWR was also rich in oil. In the 1980s, Chevron and BP drilled the one and only exploratory well in the Coastal Plain, in an effort to determine what resources lie beneath the surface. 

The results of the well were kept secret for decades, though a 2019 investigation by the New York Times revealed the companies likely discovered the well was dry, meaning little to no oil. At the time, one BP executive recalled to the outlet that during a deposition about the findings, he said “there was never any evidence at all, at that stage, that there was anything material within the refuge.” 

One dry well does not guarantee that a basin is lacking in petroleum resources. In fact, a seismic study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey estimated there could be anywhere between 5.7 billion barrels and 16 billion barrels in the Coastal Plain. 

The study, however, was conducted in 1998. 

Lampe has advocated additional seismic studies to be conducted in the region that could give a “clear understanding” of whether or not crude resources are there in reasonable quantities.  

“That would give us so much more data on exactly what is available,” he said. 

Gordon told the Washington Examiner that, toward the end of the first Trump administration, Kaktovik was a part of an application to conduct more seismic testing. That project, however, was shut down under Biden.

Depending on the outcome of Friday’s auction, Gordon hopes successful bidders will be able to move forward with seismic testing as soon as the coming winter season.

Not knowing how much oil can be recovered from ANWR poses a great challenge for oil majors and other developers looking to put investments in projects with lifespans of 20 to 30 years. 

In many cases, pursuing leases in an area such as the NPR-A can be a safer bet, as some of these oil fields are already developed, Wight said. 

“There are hundreds of billions of barrels on the North Slope,” he said. “The only question is, which of those barrels are the most economic to produce if you’re an oil company?” 

Not only do these firms need to consider risks regarding supply, but they also need to think about economic risks associated with limited drilling times, higher production costs, and environmental pushback.

It is unlikely the industry will see a repeat of the January 2025 auction that ended up with zero bids. 

Wight told the Washington Examiner he anticipates the state-owned Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority to be the highest bidder. Wight also said that while he wouldn’t be surprised by increased interest from smaller producers, he would be if that came from majors such as ConocoPhillips. 

ConocoPhillips declined to comment ahead of the auction. 

FIRST TRUMP OIL AND GAS LEASE SALE FOR ALASKA’S NORTH SLOPE DRAWS ‘HISTORIC’ BIDDING

Even if there are a small number of bids, several advocates for increased fossil fuel development within the native community already view the auction as a success. 

“We’ve been fighting for this for the last 40 years to get [ANWR] open,” said Nagruk Harcharek, president and CEO of the Voice of the Arctic Inupiat. “So as far as I’m concerned, it has already been a success. Anything moving forward is hopefully going to be that cherry on top.”