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President Donald Trump seems to want two incompatible things: unequivocal victory over Iran and avoiding even a marginal number of combat deaths. As regrettable as that choice is, he will need to soon face up to the fact that to achieve the former, he must incur the latter.
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The president started the war under the apparent belief that, with Israeli intelligence and assistance, the Iranian regime could be quickly toppled without significant American effort. The assassination of much of Iran’s military and clerical leadership on the war’s first day initially promised that desire could be fulfilled. But, predictably, the regime’s more brutal revolutionary elements gained the upper hand within Tehran. That group, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was never going to give up power or their longstanding dream of dominating the Middle East so easily.
Since then, the president has oscillated between war, bluster, and negotiation. Iran’s navy and air force have been mostly destroyed, and its other military capabilities have been massively degraded. Yet that has only pushed the Guard to up the ante by trying to cut off the world from the Middle East’s oil and gas.
The Iranian position has been essentially the same no matter what levers Trump uses. They will not give up their nuclear material or their nuclear weapons program — which they deny having, to virtually no one’s belief. They will not forfeit their ability to disrupt shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz, even continuing to insist they will charge tolls for the privilege of passing by. Iran has even frequently broken the purported ceasefire by attacking ships trying to pass the Strait on the side policed by Oman, a move that only makes sense if it believes America and Trump will back down rather than incur any significant casualties.
It is to Trump’s credit that he has resumed the war rather than knuckle under to Iranian chutzpah. The problem is that air power has limits, as the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Daniel Caine, acknowledged recently. Air power can kill and destroy, but it cannot occupy territory. That, it seems, is what will be necessary to remove Iran’s threat to the Strait and, with that, remove their last serious leverage against Trump.
Trump seems to be reconciling himself to that. He has said that he is thinking about authorizing a “massive attack” on Iran soon. That could mean simply an intensified version of the air war he has already been waging for months. Or it could mean ground troops will be sent in select strategic locations to force Iran’s hand.
That won’t mean a full invasion of Iran on the scale of the two wars with Iraq. America does not have that level of ground forces in the region, nor does it appear likely that Saudi Arabia or Kuwait will allow those forces to be based in their territory. But the U.S. does not need that level of force to take the conflict to new heights.
America needs simply to occupy the region around Iran’s key port on the Strait, Bandar Abbas, to dramatically reduce its ability to interdict Strait traffic. That could be accomplished with a much smaller force, depending on how much Iranian defenses are degraded by the ongoing air bombardment. The Marine Expeditionary Unit stationed in the region could be used to seize the city, with reinforcements flown in from the continental United States to expand and entrench American control.
Trump could also explore whether Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island, could be seized. Virtually all of Iran’s oil exports are processed through Kharg, and Trump has spoken for decades about how taking it would bring the mullahs to their knees. His military high command will surely tell him if that can be done, perhaps by using the 101st Airborne Division, which is intended to launch substantial air assault operations.
Either attack would lead to American boots on the ground and combat deaths. Trump will also be viewed as having violated an implicit pledge not to initiate new ground wars should he order this. It’s not a stretch to say that his legacy, and American global power, would rest on this effort’s success.
The problem is that both are already hanging in the balance due to the war’s current status. Iranian resistance is already leading the regime to up its demands, potentially leaving it in a stronger position regionally and globally than before Trump’s assault. Trump and America would suffer greatly if Iran is perceived accurately as having won a war with the world’s greatest superpower.
Wars are only won by making an enemy incapable of resistance. A weak regime may end resistance after relatively minor losses because it is not committed to its own survival or is willing to give up the contested region. A fanatical regime like Iran’s is not such a regime.
TRUMP TOLD ME IRAN WOULD USE A NUKE. I SHOULD HAVE ASKED HIM WHY
America often ends up in forever wars because its leaders are unwilling to make the sacrifices or take the risks needed to win. Trump seems to be realizing this simple truth. If he does, then expect the war to get much hotter quickly.
Elite media may take him to task at first for expanding the current war. But as he knows better than anyone else, there is no arguing with victory. For his sake and, more importantly, for the free world’s, he really has only one choice: Just win, baby.
