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Secretary of State Marco Rubio has seen his presidential prospects blossom since joining the Trump administration. It is driven almost entirely by Rubio’s competence in his position, as he understands America’s enemies and America’s power in a way that Democrats, and even some of his fellow Republicans, do not.
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Emerson’s polling of the 2028 GOP presidential primary has shown a marked shift in Republican sentiment. Vice President JD Vance, the heir apparent in the GOP, sat at 52% in August 2025, while Rubio was the top polling alternative at a meager 9%, showing that a future primary would be nothing more than a formality on the road to Vance’s coronation. By February of this year, Emerson’s poll showed Vance leading Rubio in a hypothetical race 52%-30%. By May, the shift was undeniable; Vance was down to 36%, with Rubio right behind at 35%.
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What makes Rubio’s rise so interesting is that his only role in the administration is in foreign policy. There are areas where Rubio’s foreign policy focus bleeds into other issues (say, immigration, with Rubio leading the charge to deport terrorist supporter Mahmoud Khalil), but his popularity surge is almost entirely because of Rubio’s performance on foreign policy issues.
There are several reasons why this is the case. For one, Rubio understands that American diplomacy should be backed by American might. Take Venezuela, where socialist dictator Nicholas Maduro was removed from power and captured by American forces earlier this year. As the Trump administration ramped up operations against Venezuela’s cooperation with narcoterrorists, Rubio warned the Maduro regime that the status quo was unacceptable and the United States would “change the dynamic.”
Maduro did not heed that warning, and he now sits in a prison in New York. The new Venezuelan government is headed by a more accommodating President Delcy Rodriguez, painting a rosier future for U.S.-Venezuelan relations, but Rubio made sure the new Venezuelan government understood how American diplomacy works: “We are prepared to use force to ensure maximum cooperation if other methods fail.”
Compare that to how Rubio’s predecessors handled their negotiations with hostile foreign regimes. Under the doormat diplomacy of the Biden administration, pushed by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, you would never know that the United States was the greatest military power in the world. When the Taliban violated agreements made with the U.S., Blinken did not promise to “change the dynamic” or that “we are prepared to use force to ensure maximum cooperation.”
Instead, Blinken was “deeply concerned” by the Taliban’s actions. The Blinken-led State Department’s way of ensuring “maximum cooperation?” Urging the Taliban to uphold its promises and to hold their own members accountable.
Rubio’s understanding that diplomacy is only as good as the military force that is willing to back it separates him from the weak-willed Biden administration, which allowed the Taliban to walk all over it as Biden and Blinken tried to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan. What also sets Rubio apart is his understanding that American enemies are truly our enemies and our allies are our allies, and all should be treated as such. That quality doesn’t just separate him from Democrats, either.
Israel is a litmus test of moral clarity, and it is a test that the Democratic Party’s foreign policy figures have consistently failed. Biden, Blinken, and company treated Israel more harshly than Hamas, demanding Israel surrender and cease fighting while promising to flood Gaza with aid no matter how many times Hamas rejected ceasefire proposals.
While Biden officials were eager to promise Hamas terrorists their own state, Rubio made it clear that promising to reward terrorists for their terrorism “makes Hamas feel more emboldened” and sabotages any actual attempts to negotiate. It begins the negotiating process from the position that Israel is somehow in the wrong and Hamas, the genocidal, antisemitic, anti-American terrorist group, is somehow the aggrieved party.
This is where Rubio’s differences with Vance come into play, driven by the one foreign policy event of the Trump administration that Rubio was not as publicly involved in: negotiations with Iran. Iran is a genocidal, anti-American terrorist regime, a consistent bad actor on the global stage for decades. Iran has been killing Americans for over 40 years, destabilizing the Middle East and chanting “Death to America” all the while.
This is the kind of regime where negotiations would require a promise that, say, “we are prepared to use force to ensure maximum cooperation if other methods fail.” And yet it was clear that the deal with Iran was Vance’s baby, not Rubio’s. The deal loosened up billions in sanctions relief and unfrozen assets for Iran, which went right back to acting as it always had, restricting movement in the Strait of Hormuz and launching attacks against its neighbors.
Iran is an existential enemy of America and would never honor its promises. The Iranian government is an anti-American death cult. Outside of oil, its biggest export is violence. Iran is the only party undermining any sort of peace process in the Middle East is Iran.
Where was Vance’s wrath focused after the regime violated the agreement? Pro-Israel influencers on social media. In an interview with podcaster Joe Rogan, Vance channeled his ire toward those he contends are part of an “extremely well-funded campaign to try to derail the negotiation and try to derail the deal.”
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Vance’s contention that the true obstacle to a deal and negotiating with Iran is that Israel pays people on social media to criticize him is silly. It is exactly the kind of thing you would expect from Antony Blinken. The only one truly derailing negotiations and deals with Iran is Iran, a regime that wants to kill as many Americans as possible, including Trump himself.
Rubio understands this. The Democratic Party as currently constructed does not, and it isn’t clear Vance does either. Rubio’s unapologetic support for American allies and his willingness to back diplomacy with the threat of American force is why a Rubio 2028 campaign has suddenly become a real possibility.
