Washington Examiner / Magazine
October 2, 2024 Issue
October 2, 2024 Print Edition
Cover Story
Contested election: How a close race with dueling polls creates risk of surprises, delays, and doubts
Before President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid in July, there was a broad consensus about where the 2024 race for the White House was headed. Former President Donald Trump was going to win and Biden was about to lose, with the only remaining questions involving the margin of victory and how many downballot Democrats the incumbent was going to drag down in defeat with him. Even then, there were still occasional reputable public polls that showed Biden with a fighting chance. An NPR-Marist survey released after the fateful June 27 debate actually showed the soon-to-be defenestrated Democrat leading by 2 percentage points nationally. That was an outlier, but Fox News and NBC News polls that came out around the same time gave Trump leads of 1 and 2 points, respectively, well within the margin of error.  (Illustration by Dean MacAdam for the Washington Examiner) Other polls, including Democratic internals, showed Biden not only losing but jeopardizing his party’s hold on Virginia, New Hampshire, Minnesota, New Mexico, Colorado, and New Jersey while losing the popular vote nationally. That is a bigger collapse of the blue wall that Hillary Clinton experienced in 2016, when Trump was elected the first time. Biden still maintains he could have won, most recently in an appearance on The View, but few Democrats believed that. But he bowed to pressure from his own party and dropped out weeks before the Democratic...

Stories that matter—told with clarity and conviction.

Your Land

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Business

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Washington Briefing

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Stories that matter—told with clarity and conviction.