At first glance, 2020 Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden seems well positioned should the Nov. 3 election against President Trump come down to Pennsylvania.
Biden averages a 5 percentage point lead on Trump in Pennsylvania, according to RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight. And just this week, two polls fielded among likely voters in the state found the two-term vice president challenger with a 9-point advantage on the incumbent.
Biden, for his part, projected confidence Wednesday during a whistle-stop train tour of eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania. The daylong swing targeted disaffected former President Barack Obama Democrats who supported Trump in 2016.
“We’re picking up an awful lot of the folks who used to be Democrats. They’re coming back home,” Biden told reporters in Johnstown. “Even if we just cut the margins it makes a gigantic difference. A gigantic difference.”
But a closer look at the polls reveals the race is still tight 30-odd days before the deadline for voters to cast their ballots.
Biden has majority support in Pennsylvania with 54% of the vote to Trump’s 45%, according to ABC News and the Washington Post this week. Only 1% had no opinion. And a day earlier, The New York Times and Siena College found the Democratic nominee had 49% of the vote to the Republican’s 40%. Another 8% were undecided.
Those polls suggest Biden’s pulling away from Trump, but the surveys’ margins of error mean the contest is still too close to call. ABC News and the Washington Post‘s findings have a margin of error of plus or minus 5 points, so Trump could be ahead 50% to 49%. The New York Times and Siena College’s results have a margin of error of 4.5 points, so Trump could be in front, 45% to 44%.
Berwood Yost, director of Franklin and Marshall College’s Center for Opinion Research, said “fancy statistical models” weren’t necessary to realize Trump could carry Pennsylvania again. Four years ago, he won the state over 2016 Democratic standard-bearer Hillary Clinton by 0.72%, 48.17% to 47.46%, or 44,292 votes.
“I’d rather be in Biden’s shoes than President Trump’s shoes,” he said. “But because of the characteristics of its population, particularly the number of white voters, the number of white working class, it is expected Pennsylvania will be close.”
For Yost, the difference between 2016 and now could be attributed to Biden because he’s “not as polarizing” as Clinton. And Biden simply tamping down Trump enthusiasm in rural counties could have broader ramifications on Election Day.
“That likeability and being perceived as more moderate, I think that potentially helps him as long as the activists in the party come out to vote, which they didn’t necessarily do for Hillary Clinton,” he said. “I think they might because of their dislike for Trump.”
Yost advised Biden to focus on healthcare and race relations to counter Trump’s message on the economy. That tactic worked for Democrats in 2018, though Trump wasn’t on the ballot.
Pennsylvania Republicans have narrowed the voter registration gap in the state by being aggressive and visiting residents door to door, despite the coronavirus pandemic. Democrats, in comparison, have mostly stuck to virtual organizing. Democrats still hold a 750,000-voter edge, even though GOP registration has surged in the west.
Former Republican Pennsylvania Rep. Phil English said GOP efforts extended beyond voter registration to turnout in a state that appreciates “hands on,” “tactile” politics.
“The Democrats are also energized, particularly in the southeastern part of the state. The question becomes, is anything going to be changing those dynamics?” he said.
English cited Trump’s Supreme Court pick Amy Coney Barrett as a galvanizing force for Trump, given the number of Catholics in Pennsylvania and her appeal among women.
“If the Democrats mishandle this process, if they go rogue, I think there could be a backlash, which would have an impact on places like suburban Philadelphia,” he said of the state’s Democratic stronghold.
He added, “I think COVID is a net negative for Trump, the economy is a net plus, the Supreme Court is a question mark. And I think some combination of these issues will gel in the next couple of weeks, even though people have already started to vote.”
Richard Stafford, a Carnegie Mellon policy professor, agreed Trump’s constituency was more active, but thought COVID-19 was less of a threat to the president.
“Our pandemic anxiety is actually lower than the average of several other states,” he said, referring to Florida and Texas. “Our unemployment rate has decreased, though I worry that it’s temporary.”
Stafford believed a New York Times report that Trump paid no federal income tax for 10 of the last 15 years may be more damaging because it “flips character into a much more focused issue for people.”
“It hits people in the pocketbook so to speak. The pocketbook is always important,” he said.
