With the November elections in just under 100 days, one narrative that has emerged in this cycle is the rise of generally inexperienced insurgent candidates who are toppling long-standing members of Congress and other offices on both sides of the political aisle.
Democrat Jamaal Bowman made national news while knocking out a 15-term incumbent in the 16th District of New York, for instance. This trend has seemingly gained momentum nationally in places such as Missouri, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Washington, D.C. In fact, Donald Trump’s electoral victory in 2016 could be viewed as part of this narrative, taking out a host of experienced challengers in the GOP and eventually winning the White House. So could that of neophyte New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez taking down a deeply entrenched incumbent of her own party. But although some might view the lack of experience as a refreshing asset, the data suggest that inexperience is not as great a virtue as some believe.
Thanks to a new national survey from the American Enterprise Institute, it is clear that being an outsider when it comes to serving in Congress is not the dominant preference in the American electorate. Specifically, the survey asks would you prefer to elect a representative to Congress who has experience in politics or is new to politics, and the responses show a decidedly mixed view on experience with a plurality of Americans valuing experience in politics. Thirty-seven percent of Americans state that they would like to elect a representative to Congress that has experience in politics while another 26% would prefer someone who is basically new to politics. In contrast, 35% of the public simply has no opinion on this issue at this point, and while there are these real differences in electoral preference, it is clear that there is no dominant thinking nationally at this point.
Going further, although it may initially appear that left-leaning, often urban areas would prefer to elect inexperienced representatives to Capitol Hill based on chatter in the press, that is not the case. Only 18% of liberals want someone new to politics to serve as their representative in Congress compared to 24% of moderates and a much higher 33% of conservatives. In reality, 50% of liberals want someone with experience in D.C., compared to a much lower 30% of conservatives and 35% of moderates. The picture is anything but a clear preference for those on the Left or Right, but those on the Left clearly value a track record despite popular narratives that dominate the public narrative.
There are some differences with race and ethnicity in terms of experience, but a preference for inexperience is never dominant. White, non-Hispanic identifiers are evenly split among no opinion, experience, and something new entirely. Those who are black and non-Hispanic are not; a clear majority of 54% want someone with experience and a plurality of those who are Hispanic and Asian, both 43%, want experience as well.
Age could also be a factor here. One might expect that millennials and those in Generation Z would be eager to oust entrenched incumbents, but this is not true. The data reveal that only 19% of those in Gen Z want to be represented by someone with no experience compared to 38% who value prior experience and 42% who have no opinion on this at all. Forty percent of their Generation X parents value experience, but, in contrast, these parents are a bit more open to inexperience at 27%.
Baby boomers actually value experience a bit less at 37% and are then split with 32% preferring someone who is new to politics and another 30% have no opinion. There are some generational differences, but it is not the case that younger Americans crave inexperience and new candidates, they are the least likely cohort to value someone who is new to politics. So while Ocasio-Cortez and others capture quite a bit of attention, they do not represent a larger trend among young people of wanting outsiders in Congress.
A clear relationship with expertise does emerge when educational level is considered. Those with more formal education strongly want their representatives in Congress to have experience in politics. Whereas 33% of those with a high school diploma or less value experience, that figure increased to 41% for those with a college degree and 47% with post-graduate degrees.
As a professor, I try to teach my students that it is critical to collect data and look at trends even when they seem to go against narratives and compelling stories such as those upstart candidates taking down entrenched incumbents. We have new empirical data, which shows that Americans value expertise in their members of Congress and as such, the many narratives about inexperienced insurgent candidates being highly desired by the electorate are overblown despite the amount of noise that such races and stories generate.
Americans still value experience over naïveté in their representatives, but there is also a fairly large “no opinion” segment, open to anything should the particular race prove salient. The tales of outsider insurgents such as Trump or Ocasio-Cortez or culturally important films such as Mr. Smith Goes to Washington constitute more of an outsider myth. These are not the sort of Congressional candidates that the electorate actually wants to send to Washington.
Samuel J. Abrams is professor of politics at Sarah Lawrence College and a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.
