2026 midterm elections live updates: Latest news, results, and analysis

Bill Essayli, the first assistant U.S. attorney for California’s Central District, suggested Thursday that a minimum of 20,000 noncitizens in California were sent mail-in ballots for the midterm elections.

Essayli said federal employees at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services and Homeland Security Investigations personally reviewed every name on a 20,000-person list to confirm that they were not U.S. citizens, in comments to Fox News Digital. He said there is evidence that those people were sent mail-in ballots ahead of November.

Essayli added that he expects thousands more names to be added to the list in the coming days.

Federal investigators reviewed the list of names after the Department of Justice sued the state last week for not meeting a federal demand to review a password-protected drive containing about 20,000 names the Trump administration warned were “likely” noncitizens registered to vote.

Top Democrats sued the Trump administration on Tuesday to block the federal effort to target noncitizens on voter rolls. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and other officials warned that lists such as the one in California “have crumbled upon the barest inspection.”

Republicans are out to strong starts in early and absentee vote totals in more than a dozen House seats President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024, potentially casting doubt on Democrats’ ability to flip deep-red terrain.

According to a GOP analysis, Republicans hold early vote leads in districts such as Arizona’s 2nd, Arkansas’s 2nd, Colorado’s 3rd, Indiana’s 5th, and South Carolina’s 1st districts.

Republicans are also over-performing their 2022 early vote margins in four competitive districts in Pennsylvania, considered the epicenter of the battlefield and crucial seats for Republicans to hold.

Democrats in recent weeks have begun spending in deep-red territory, a sign of their growing confidence as Republicans face a difficult political environment.

However, Republicans in those districts hold serious cash-on-hand advantages over their opponents. For example, Rep. French Hill (R-AR) has $1.6 million in the bank, compared to Democratic opponent Chris Jones’s $280,000.

Rep. Greg Murphy (R-NC) has a $2.3 million cash lead over his opponent, who has just $81,000 in the bank.

Flipping these long-shot seats, even in difficult political cycles, has proven a tall order in recent years. In 2018, considered the last wave year when Democrats flipped 40 House districts, the party won five districts that Trump carried by double digits, amounting to less than 3% of all those seats.

Arab Americans appear to be swinging back to the Democratic Party after Trump managed to capitalize on the voting bloc’s dissatisfaction with the Left in the 2024 elections, shifting many of them red.

Their tilt back toward the blue side could cause particular issues for Republicans running in Michigan, where GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers is embroiled in one of the most competitive races nationwide against Democrat Abdul el Sayed. The battleground state holds the highest concentration of Arab Americans in the country.

Among Arab American registered voters, 58% support Democrats for Congress this year, while 34% support Republicans, despite a far larger portion of the demographic backing the GOP in 2024, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll. The same poll reported that 41% of the demographic backed Democrat Kamala Harris for president two years ago, while 39% backed Trump.

BROWNSVILLE, Texas — Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton rallied Thursday in the southernmost part of the Lone Star State as he vies to win Hispanic support in his toss-up Senate matchup.

The event, attended by roughly 50 people at Palenque Grill, opened with a prayer, followed by the Pledge of Allegiance and the Texas Pledge.

“Lord, cause the media to have the divine revelation of truth and to speak that,” pastor Brad Burkes prayed at the event’s outset.

“Lord, bless and protect Ken Paxton and each of our candidates and each of our voters and each of our families in the name of Jesus Christ,” he concluded.

Over half the crowd raised their hands when asked if they’d already voted. Early voting opened in Texas on Monday, and the state smashed its previous first-day record.

Just ahead of Paxton’s entrance, his supporters danced to President Donald Trump’s famous entry song, “Y.M.C.A.” by Village People.

Paxton promised to bring down costs, touting his record as attorney general.

“We will work to bring down costs across the border on every front,” Paxton said. “I will fight to make your life better, change Washington, and hold bad actors accountable, just like I did as attorney general of Texas.”

Paxton then went on to slam his Democratic opponent, state Rep. James Talarico, as the polls remain tight. The Texas Republican pleaded with the crowd to increase turnout by taking their friends and family to vote.

“I’m not exaggerating when I said if we lose Texas, we lose America,” he said.

Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) is campaigning for reelection with New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, moving their relationship forward after Albany initially held the socialist mayor at arm’s length last year.

As Republican Bruce Blakeman looks to oust Hochul from the governor’s mansion, Mamdani and Hochul are set to rally supporters in Brooklyn on Friday and Sunday, according to Politico.

The development comes after Hochul, known as more of an Old Guard member of the Democratic Party, waited until weeks before last year’s mayoral election to back Mamdani for the office. In the months since, she has cast herself as the moderate buffer to his socialist vision for New York, while rejecting an “enemy” role for the mayor.

The pair’s relationship progressed in early February, when Mamdani endorsed Hochul’s bid for reelection. In April, the two moved closer when Hochul unveiled a proposal for a new tax on residents who own second homes in New York City that are worth $5 million or more, after previously rejecting Mamdani’s efforts to hike taxes on the rich.

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) recruited former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg to help him campaign for reelection in Georgia on Saturday afternoon, as the incumbent lawmaker looks to fend off a competitive challenge from Republican nominee Mike Collins.

Ossoff and Buttigieg, both floated as possible presidential contenders in 2028, are scheduled to make a joint appearance in Atlanta over the weekend.

Buttigieg is known as a more centrist politician, making him a viable surrogate for Ossoff in the swing state. The former transportation secretary’s profile has risen in recent months as he has signaled he is open to making a second presidential run after a failed bid in the 2020 election.

Ossoff has been described by controversial socialist media personality Hasan Piker as his “dark-horse pick” for 2028.

The betting markets have Ossoff and Buttigieg coming in second and sixth, respectively, in the next Democratic battle for the presidential nomination. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) is in first place, according to Polymarket.

Texas appears to have made voter registration data errors, an issue that could make it more difficult to track early results or predict outcomes in the midterm elections.

In areas such as Tarrant County, the third most populous in Texas, county data on new voter registrations differ significantly from state data. Texas said voter registrations are down in Tarrant County compared to the last midterm elections in 2022. But the county says registrations are up by nearly 10%. County officials told the Texas Tribune that their data are accurate, adding that the state’s information is flawed because Texas is in the throes of implementing a new voter registration system. The Texas secretary of state said it is looking into the matter.

The development comes as Tarrant County is known as a battleground area.

Republicans carried it by roughly 16 percentage points in the 2012 presidential election. The GOP won it by over 8 points in the 2016 election. In 2020, Republicans lost Tarrant County by just 0.02%. But Trump pulled it back in the GOP’s favor in 2024, winning the county by over 5 points.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Thursday shifted the Ohio governor’s race further in the Democratic Party’s favor, signaling that Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy faces growing challenges in his campaign against Amy Acton.

The major election forecaster said the race now leans Democrat, after previously rating it a toss-up. The change comes after the Cook Political Report over the summer changed its forecast for the governor’s race from lean Republican to a toss-up.

The development this week follows some fallout Ramaswamy’s campaign appeared to experience over his move to air a negative ad against Acton, featuring her estranged mother calling her daughter a troubled liar unfit for Ohio’s highest office. Critics called it “gutter politics,” though Trump and Vance have been steadfast in standing by Ramaswamy.

In addition to changing its ratings for the Ohio governor’s race, Sabato’s Crystal Ball also shifted multiple other competitive races in Democrats’ favor, tilting gubernatorial races in Michigan, Oklahoma, and Alabama away from Republicans.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is set to appear in Georgia on Friday in a last-ditch effort to rally the state behind gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson, who holds a narrow lead over Democratic rival Keisha Lance Bottoms ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

The pair’s rally in Henry County comes as Jackson has voiced alarm that Republican voters could believe the swing state is redder than it actually is, and stay home instead of going to the polls.

“I’m concerned,” he said during a campaign event Tuesday in Calhoun. “I am concerned that rural Georgia still thinks we’re red and therefore they look at somebody like myself and my opponent and just say, ‘Well, there’s no comparison.’”

Over 18 million voters have cast early ballots so far in the 2026 midterm elections, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

In South Carolina, the first day of the early voting window saw more than double the turnout of the 2022 midterm election, with over 191,000 ballots being cast through Tuesday.

In some states, the trend could be concerning for Republicans. In states such as Kansas and Nebraska, Democrats are showing surprisingly strong early participation. In Georgia, where 190,000 Georgians who have voted early this year sat out the 2022 midterm elections, the number of ballots cast jumped 18% in 27 counties that voted for then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

In North Carolina, registered Democrats have cast more than twice as many early ballots as registered Republicans, according to figures from the University of Florida Election Lab.

But a red wave is expected on Nov. 3, or in the days immediately preceding it, experts say, as Republicans are known to favor casting ballots on Election Day. There also remains a strong element of uncertainty in states such as North Carolina, where unaffiliated voting has surged compared to 2022.

Thursday is shaping up to be a major campaign day, as both parties battle to boost voter turnout for their side, just under two weeks from the midterm elections.

President Donald Trump is holding a rally in Sioux City, Iowa, on Thursday evening to stump for Senate nominee Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA), who is facing Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in the highly competitive race to succeed outgoing Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA).

Vice President JD Vance is traveling to North Platte, Nebraska, in an effort to boost Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE).

On the Democratic side. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) will rally blue voters in Portland, Maine behind Senate nominee Troy Jackson, who is challenging longtime incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME).

Former Vice President Kamala Harris is headed to Mississippi to appear alongside Democrat Scott Colom in his race against Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (D-MS) in the red southern state. Trump will also appear in Mississippi on Monday to support Hyde-Smith.

For at least a month, the president has been peppering both executive actions and promises of cash payouts into his midterm campaign schedule and social media posts. The president plans to make one of these announcements at every rally between now and Nov. 3, a senior White House official said Tuesday.

Some voters remain skeptical about the motive behind Trump’s blitz of financial announcements. Voters in North Carolina told the Washington Examiner that the state will need billions to recover fully from Hurricane Helene in 2024. Still, other voters expressed appreciation for the deluge of White House assistance.

Here’s everything that the president and his top aides are promising and doling out to voters in the lead-up to Election Day.

Disaster relief and recovery

• Iowa: $5 million in disaster relief funds following recent storms (Truth Social)
• Kentucky: $9.1 million in new disaster relief funds (Truth Social)
• North Carolina: $858 million in Transportation Department disaster relief funds to aid in the rebuilding effort following 2024’s Hurricane Helene
• Wisconsin: $17.9 million in new disaster relief funds (Truth Social)

Energy, fuel, and agricultural costs

• Alaska: Commitment from Taiwan to purchase 30% of natural gas produced by Alaska pipeline project
• Kansas: $8 billion Agriculture Department program to offset elevated diesel costs during harvest season. Make E15 blended ethanol fuel available year-round if Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) wins reelection
• Nebraska: Signed an executive order expanding availability and deferring taxes on red dye diesel fuel
• Texas: Invoked the Defense Production Act to expand the oil refinery in Tyler

Defense, military, and space

• Launch of a new Pentagon submarine component repair center in Cleveland
• Kentucky: $100 million Pentagon investment in Anthea’s Kentucky manufacturing facility if Republicans defend both congressional majorities successfully
• Ohio: Consideration of Ohio to house the Space Force Academy if Republicans successfully defend both congressional majorities

Financial relief and healthcare benefits

• National:
  • $5,000 dividend to every U.S. adult if Republicans maintain both congressional majorities
  • $500 refunds to Obamacare enrollees in 30 states
  • 90 one-time payments to 20 million Medicare enrollees

Other state-specific promises

• Alaska:
  • $162 million potential Federal Communications Commission investment in expanding high-speed internet coverage
  • Pardons for two truckers indicted by the Biden administration for improvements made to their own vehicles

Click here to read more.

A major polling scandal in which a fake firm fabricated results in key races rocked the political world just two weeks before the midterm elections, raising questions about the validity of a polling industry already under constant scrutiny.

Right now, polling for this year’s midterm elections suggests Democrats are on the precipice of a blue wave. They’re polling well across the board and are competitive in traditionally red states such as Kansas and Texas. Many Republicans are skeptical of the available data.

But both Democratic and Republican pollsters who spoke to the Washington Examiner contend that public opinion research remains a trustworthy tool, though it’s an “imprecise tool,” as veteran Democratic pollster and Zenith Research founder Adam Carlson puts it.

“A lot of times [people say] ‘this poll missed by like 10 points,’ and it was fielded a month before the election. A lot of things happen in the last month of the election,” said Carlson, pointing to the $80 million Michael Bloomberg invested in the midterm elections this week.

Brent Buchanan, founder and CEO of Cygnal, told the Washington Examiner that in private polling, “there’s not a lot of error because we wouldn’t get hired again.”

Read more about how polls work and if you should trust them.

Shortly before the evening wrapped up, boxing legend Evander Holyfield made an appearance at Trump’s rally, telling supporters, “I’m so happy for him to be our president.”

Holyfield, who is known as the only four-time world heavyweight champion in history, took the stage at Trump’s invitation.

“I’m thankful to be here, and I thank Donald Trump. I had a great relationship with him in boxing, and every time I fought, I fought to win, and he gave me the opportunity,” Holyfield said.

Trump called Holyfield “a champ.”

“He would win and win and win. He won, he won all the time. He was just a fantastic fighter and a great champion and a great, a great guy,” the president said.

Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC) celebrated Trump as one of her late brother’s “dearest friends” after the president invited her onstage at the rally in Pendleton.

Darline Graham is running against Democrat Annie Andrews to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham in the upper chamber after the longtime South Carolina senator suddenly died due to heart problems.

During remarks onstage Wednesday evening, Darline Graham thanked Trump for coming to the state as she led the crowd in chants of “USA.”

“I am so honored to have your endorsement, and I’ve mentioned this to you before. You are one of Lindsey’s dearest friends. You will always be part of the Graham family,” she told the president. “I want you to know that.”

“Do we love President Trump in the Upstate? Is this Trump country?” Darline asked the crowd. “He has made our country so much better. Our borders are secure. Isn’t that great? Yes. More people are working than ever before. Our country is safer and greater than ever before.”