2026 midterm elections live updates: Latest news, results, and analysis

A major polling scandal in which a fake firm fabricated results in key races rocked the political world just two weeks before the midterm elections, raising questions about the validity of a polling industry already under constant scrutiny.

Right now, polling for this year’s midterm elections suggests Democrats are on the precipice of a blue wave. They’re polling well across the board and are competitive in traditionally red states such as Kansas and Texas. Many Republicans are skeptical of the available data.

But both Democratic and Republican pollsters who spoke to the Washington Examiner contend that public opinion research remains a trustworthy tool, though it’s an “imprecise tool,” as veteran Democratic pollster and Zenith Research founder Adam Carlson puts it.

“A lot of times [people say] ‘this poll missed by like 10 points,’ and it was fielded a month before the election. A lot of things happen in the last month of the election,” said Carlson, pointing to the $80 million Michael Bloomberg invested in the midterm elections this week.

Brent Buchanan, founder and CEO of Cygnal, told the Washington Examiner that in private polling, “there’s not a lot of error because we wouldn’t get hired again.”

Read more about how polls work and if you should trust them.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is set to appear in Georgia on Friday in a last-ditch effort to rally the state behind gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson, who holds a narrow lead over Democratic rival Keisha Lance Bottoms ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

The pair’s rally in Henry County comes as Jackson has voiced alarm that Republican voters could believe the swing state is redder than it actually is, and stay home instead of going to the polls.

“I’m concerned,” he said during a campaign event Tuesday in Calhoun. “I am concerned that rural Georgia still thinks we’re red and therefore they look at somebody like myself and my opponent and just say, ‘Well, there’s no comparison.’”

Over 18 million voters have cast early ballots so far in the 2026 midterm elections, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

In South Carolina, the first day of the early voting window saw more than double the turnout of the 2022 midterm election, with over 191,000 ballots being cast through Tuesday.

In some states, the trend could be concerning for Republicans. In states such as Kansas and Nebraska, Democrats are showing surprisingly strong early participation. In Georgia, where 190,000 Georgians who have voted early this year sat out the 2022 midterm elections, the number of ballots cast jumped 18% in 27 counties that voted for then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

In North Carolina, registered Democrats have cast more than twice as many early ballots as registered Republicans, according to figures from the University of Florida Election Lab.

But a red wave is expected on Nov. 3, or in the days immediately preceding it, experts say, as Republicans are known to favor casting ballots on Election Day. There also remains a strong element of uncertainty in states such as North Carolina, where unaffiliated voting has surged compared to 2022.

Thursday is shaping up to be a major campaign day, as both parties battle to boost voter turnout for their side, just under two weeks from the midterm elections.

President Donald Trump is holding a rally in Sioux City, Iowa, on Thursday evening to stump for Senate nominee Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA), who is facing Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in the highly competitive race to succeed outgoing Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA).

Vice President JD Vance is traveling to North Platte, Nebraska, in an effort to boost Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE).

On the Democratic side. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) will rally blue voters in Portland, Maine behind Senate nominee Troy Jackson, who is challenging longtime incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME).

Former Vice President Kamala Harris is headed to Mississippi to appear alongside Democrat Scott Colom in his race against Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (D-MS) in the red southern state. Trump will also appear in Mississippi on Monday to support Hyde-Smith.

For at least a month, the president has been peppering both executive actions and promises of cash payouts into his midterm campaign schedule and social media posts. The president plans to make one of these announcements at every rally between now and Nov. 3, a senior White House official said Tuesday.

Some voters remain skeptical about the motive behind Trump’s blitz of financial announcements. Voters in North Carolina told the Washington Examiner that the state will need billions to recover fully from Hurricane Helene in 2024. Still, other voters expressed appreciation for the deluge of White House assistance.

Here’s everything that the president and his top aides are promising and doling out to voters in the lead-up to Election Day.

Disaster relief and recovery

• Iowa: $5 million in disaster relief funds following recent storms (Truth Social)
• Kentucky: $9.1 million in new disaster relief funds (Truth Social)
• North Carolina: $858 million in Transportation Department disaster relief funds to aid in the rebuilding effort following 2024’s Hurricane Helene
• Wisconsin: $17.9 million in new disaster relief funds (Truth Social)

Energy, fuel, and agricultural costs

• Alaska: Commitment from Taiwan to purchase 30% of natural gas produced by Alaska pipeline project
• Kansas: $8 billion Agriculture Department program to offset elevated diesel costs during harvest season. Make E15 blended ethanol fuel available year-round if Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) wins reelection
• Nebraska: Signed an executive order expanding availability and deferring taxes on red dye diesel fuel
• Texas: Invoked the Defense Production Act to expand the oil refinery in Tyler

Defense, military, and space

• Launch of a new Pentagon submarine component repair center in Cleveland
• Kentucky: $100 million Pentagon investment in Anthea’s Kentucky manufacturing facility if Republicans defend both congressional majorities successfully
• Ohio: Consideration of Ohio to house the Space Force Academy if Republicans successfully defend both congressional majorities

Financial relief and healthcare benefits

• National:
  • $5,000 dividend to every U.S. adult if Republicans maintain both congressional majorities
  • $500 refunds to Obamacare enrollees in 30 states
  • 90 one-time payments to 20 million Medicare enrollees

Other state-specific promises

• Alaska:
  • $162 million potential Federal Communications Commission investment in expanding high-speed internet coverage
  • Pardons for two truckers indicted by the Biden administration for improvements made to their own vehicles

Click here to read more.

Shortly before the evening wrapped up, boxing legend Evander Holyfield made an appearance at Trump’s rally, telling supporters, “I’m so happy for him to be our president.”

Holyfield, who is known as the only four-time world heavyweight champion in history, took the stage at Trump’s invitation.

“I’m thankful to be here, and I thank Donald Trump. I had a great relationship with him in boxing, and every time I fought, I fought to win, and he gave me the opportunity,” Holyfield said.

Trump called Holyfield “a champ.”

“He would win and win and win. He won, he won all the time. He was just a fantastic fighter and a great champion and a great, a great guy,” the president said.

Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC) celebrated Trump as one of her late brother’s “dearest friends” after the president invited her onstage at the rally in Pendleton.

Darline Graham is running against Democrat Annie Andrews to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham in the upper chamber after the longtime South Carolina senator suddenly died due to heart problems.

During remarks onstage Wednesday evening, Darline Graham thanked Trump for coming to the state as she led the crowd in chants of “USA.”

“I am so honored to have your endorsement, and I’ve mentioned this to you before. You are one of Lindsey’s dearest friends. You will always be part of the Graham family,” she told the president. “I want you to know that.”

“Do we love President Trump in the Upstate? Is this Trump country?” Darline asked the crowd. “He has made our country so much better. Our borders are secure. Isn’t that great? Yes. More people are working than ever before. Our country is safer and greater than ever before.”

The president referenced the protests and riots sweeping France, promising that he would never let such violence take over the United States.

Trump was detailing his work to bring down drug prices at the Clemson rally when he riffed on the issues facing Paris, asking supporters, “What the hell happened to France?”

“We had to talk very tough to countries because … they weren’t exactly thrilled when I said you’re going to have to cut your price,” Trump said. “The president of France, who right now has bigger problems. Right now, he’s got bigger problems, I think, than drug prices.”

Trump suggested that the “idiots” who heckle his rallies want the same type of riots to sweep the U.S.

“This is what they want to see for our country. We’re not going to let that happen in our country,” he pledged.

Michigan Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers turned Democrat Abdul el Sayed’s answer about bipartisanship into an attack on the Democratic nominee’s policy agenda during their second and final debate Wednesday night.

Asked to name one policy proposed by the opposing party that he could support, el Sayed emphasized the importance of finding common ground and discussed areas such as tariffs and housing.

Rogers countered by arguing that el Sayed’s proposals would ultimately leave Michigan residents with less money and fewer choices.

“Putting money in your pockets,” Rogers said. “It’s a great slogan. There’s nothing behind it. Matter of fact, when his new Democrat socialist-aligned policies are engaged, money in your pocket — you’ll be lucky to have a damn pair of pants when you’re done.”

Rogers also went after el Sayed’s support for “Medicare for all,” arguing that the Democrat has not explained how much the proposal would cost taxpayers or what it would mean for people with private health insurance.

“These aren’t real solutions,” Rogers said. “These are solutions that are going to make your life more miserable, and it’s going to take away your choices and health.”

Trump advised rally attendees to demand that data centers disburse benefits to locals during remarks touting artificial intelligence, arguing they could be “so popular” because they are “good for everybody.”

“Ask for money. Henry told them that they have to pay the people $10,000, $15,000,” the president said, referring to Gov. Henry McMaster (R-SC). “They got plenty of money, and all of a sudden, you’re going to see data centers are going to be so popular.”

“They had one in Louisiana, and the people didn’t like it until they announced that they’re going to pay the teachers $50,000 apiece to take care of education,” Trump continued. “Then they had another one in another state, and they decided to give $10,000 each to every person, every citizen of that area. … They didn’t like it. All of a sudden, they said, ‘We love it very much. Can you bring some more?'”

Trump praised a rally attendee for targeting a protester who disrupted the rally, calling it an “incredible” act.

Multiple demonstrators heckled the president during his Clemson rally before being escorted off the premises by police. The president said one of them was “whacked” by a supporter before being removed.

“Who’s the guy that threw the punch?” Trump asked the crowd. “I watched that. I saw that. That was incredible.”

“He got whacked,” the president said of the protester. “He started, you know that screech, whatever the hell they do, whatever they practice, and as he’s in the process of the screech, he got whacked.”

Democratic Michigan Senate nominee Abdul el Sayed turned his final debate against Republican Mike Rogers into a game of “MAGA bingo,” accusing his opponent of relying on political buzzwords to distract voters from President Donald Trump’s policies and their impact on household costs.

During the first half of Wednesday night’s televised debate, el Sayed repeatedly warned viewers to listen for familiar MAGA talking points, arguing that Rogers stands firmly behind Trump on issues ranging from immigration to the economy.

“You’re going to hear a form of MAGA bingo because the thing about MAGA is, when they are talking, they are trying to distract you,” el Sayed said. He urged viewers to play along at home, adding that when Republicans use those buzzwords, “they’re also trying to pick your pocket.”

Rogers countered by attacking el Sayed’s progressive positions, including his support for abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The Republican accused el Sayed of backing policies that have allowed “tens of millions of people” to cross the southern border.

The candidates also clashed over ideology. In his opening statement, Rogers tried to tie el Sayed to the Democratic Socialists of America, saying his opponent aligned with the group and was “married” to a socialist agenda.

Later in the debate, Rogers responded to el Sayed’s repeated reference to Trump.

“He wants to make this about Donald Trump. I mean, the the bingo game ought to be how many times can he put the word Trump in any answer. … It’s ridiculous,” said Rogers.

Wednesday’s debate marked the second and final televised faceoff between the candidates before Michigan voters head to the polls Nov. 3.

The contest is drawing enormous national attention and spending, with advertising in the open Senate race expected to exceed $300 million by Election Day. Rogers, a former seven-term congressman, is seeking to defeat el Sayed, a progressive Democrat from Ann Arbor, in a race that could help determine control of the Senate.

Trump kicked off his rally at Clemson University in South Carolina on Wednesday evening to roars from crowds of supporters, only to be heckled by multiple protesters who were swiftly escorted from the room by police.

Seconds after he took the stage, security seized a male protester who interrupted the start of the president’s remarks in South Carolina, which are aimed at boosting Sen. Darline Graham’s (R-SC) bid for a full term in the upper chamber. Shortly after, police escorted another protester from the rally, before a third incident took place.

“Paid protesters — it’s unbelievable, unbelievable. They’ll do whatever they can to win,” Trump told attendees before cracking a joke about the demonstrators. “They get $250 for that, and they screw up their lives. They go home, and mom slaps them around. ‘I voted for that man. Don’t you ever do that again, son. I still love you, son.'”

The president praised police for their swift response, saying it was “beautiful to watch.”

“These people don’t play games. That guy, he, he was in the process of shouting, and they nabbed him, and they ripped him. They ripped him away,” Trump said. “That was beautiful to watch. That’s why you have great law enforcement.”

Expect tonight’s second and final Michigan Senate debate to be even more combative than the first.

University of Michigan public policy lecturer Rusty Hills told the Washington Examiner that Democratic nominee Abdul el Sayed and Republican nominee Mike Rogers will likely come prepared to sharpen the attacks that worked in their first face-to-face clash — and ditch those that didn’t.

“This is like Joe Frazier and Muhammad Ali,” Hills said. “This is just a 12-round knockdown dragout fight.”

Hills said he expects the candidates to spend less time on policy than in the first debate, as both campaigns focus on the issues and attacks their polling and analysis show are resonating with voters.

One possible flash point: foreign policy.

During the first debate, moderator Rick Albin repeatedly pressed el Sayed on whether Iran or Israel posed a greater threat to the United States. Hills said Rogers could seize on that exchange if the candidates return to foreign policy tonight.

“If we can’t distinguish between friend and foe, you know we’ve got a problem in the U.S. Senate,” Hills said.

Hills said the candidates may never get there, however, predicting the debate is more likely to remain focused on issues such as gas and grocery prices.

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) on Wednesday faulted President Donald Trump for the tight South Carolina Senate race, claiming the dynamic would have been different if the president backed him over Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC).

Norman, who fell to Graham in the primary runoff after Trump endorsed her, told Kelly Nash that Trump played a significant role in the race that “was just not right,” saying the president wrongly swayed voters’ opinions. He was asked about a write-in campaign that began after his runoff loss, but declined to endorse the initiative.

“I would be guilty of what Donald Trump’s doing — forcing, using my whatever influence I’ve got to say ‘vote this way or that way,'” Norman said of aiding the write-in campaign. “My message: Vote for conscience and let the chips fall where they may. They should have — this race shouldn’t even be close, and it wouldn’t be if I [had won the primary] race.”

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