2026 midterm elections live updates: Latest news, results, and analysis

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul el Sayed is scaling back his expectation that he’d beat Republican Mike Rogers by 7 points in the general election, leaving his margin prediction more open-ended.

In an interview with Politico, el Sayed was asked if he still believes he will win by 7 points next week, as he had told the outlet earlier this month.

“We’ll see,” el Sayed said.

According to an average of polls by RealClearPolitics, el Sayed holds a slight lead over Rogers, roughly 2.5 percentage points. Prediction market Kalshi says el Sayed is likely to beat Rogers, with the Democratic candidate’s chance of winning standing at 69%.

The battle for el Sayed rests in swaying voters who sided with his more moderate primary competitor, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI). But powerful Democrats have lent their campaign strength over the last week, including former President Barack Obama and Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI).

President Donald Trump demanded last-minute changes to the ballot for Alaska‘s U.S. Senate seat after a bombshell report that Democrats recruited candidates with the same name as the Republican incumbent.

“It has just been determined that the Democrats in Alaska illegally searched for, and recruited, a man named Dan Sullivan to run against our distinguished Republican Senator, Dan Sullivan, in order to defraud, confuse, and obfuscate the Election, thereby taking votes away from the REAL Senator, Dan Sullivan,” Trump wrote on Wednesday. “The New York Times reports that, ‘Democrats have insisted they have nothing to do with the other Dan Sullivan on Alaska’s Senate ballot. But aides with the Mary Peltola campaign and DSCC were part of a monthslong secret plan to recruit him to run — as well as other candidates.'”

In a lengthy social media post, Trump contended that the Democrats’ “false statements were made under oath in Federal Court.”

“Therefore, they perjured themselves, and should be liable for very serious consequences,” he wrote. “Mary Peltola should suffer the Legal and Political consequences for what she has done, A FRAUD ON THE AMERICAN PUBLIC, and Dan Sullivan should be allowed to run without either Mary Peltola or FAKE Dan Sullivan on the Ballot.”

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YouTuber Ms. Rachel, or Rachel Griffin Accurso, whose content is oriented toward children, posted a video on Wednesday voicing her support for Maine Democratic Senate nominee Troy Jackson.

The content creator praised Jackson’s opposition to sending aid to Israel. Accurso has been highly critical of Israel’s role in the war in Gaza and has advocated Palestinian children.

“Troy doesn’t want us sending billions of dollars for weapons that kill and hurt children in Gaza,” she said. “He cares about using our tax dollars to help people in Maine thrive. Maine, I love you so much. I love Mainers; they’re so awesome. Let’s join together and elect Troy.”

Accurso, who is from Maine, also framed Jackson as a champion for children and families while dragging incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) for putting financial interests before Mainers.

“He got kids free lunch at school. He got paid family leave. He’s for affordable childcare,” Accurso said. “Susan Collins cares about billionaires. Troy cares about people.”

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) on Wednesday said he is weighing a presidential bid in 2028, but clarified that the final decision will not be made until after the midterm elections.

Kelly was asked about his potential presidential ambitions while stumping for Maine Democratic Senate nominee Troy Jackson and said he would need to talk to his “boss,” meaning his wife, about launching a 2028 campaign.

“I’m considering it,” he said. “I’ll make a decision after this election sometime. You know, rather at the appropriate time, big decision.”

He went on to put into perspective how he views the weight of launching a nationwide campaign, emphasizing the United States’s leading role in global stability.

“This is 350 million people around the world, by the way,” Kelly said, referring to the U.S. population. “It’s important that the United States maintains its position of leadership in the world. It’s not only for the benefit of us. I think it’s for the benefit of everybody. Without us, there’s, you know, ultimately [the] possibility of chaos and instability.”

Kelly is one of many Democrats in the field weighing a potential 2028 presidential bid, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA).

An advertisement aired by Ohio Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy featuring Democrat Amy Acton’s estranged mother has harmed his campaign, an internal Republican poll found.

According to a private GOP poll obtained by Axios, Acton was leading Ramaswamy by 8 points, a significant jump from her 1- to 2-point lead before the ad dropped. A memo sent with the polls concluded the video “is having a significant effect on the gubernatorial race,” the outlet reported.

Additionally, the poll found that those who had seen, read, or heard about the video were more likely to vote for Acton by a 2-to-1 ratio.

Ramaswamy released the ad earlier this month, and it featured Acton’s estranged mother, Donna Arthur. Acton has said her mother remained married to her stepfather, who she says sexually abused her as a child, and fled the state with him to evade charges.

The video was immediately met with backlash, but Ramaswamy’s campaign followed through with releasing the ad, spending $4 million to air it across Ohio.

Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa released an ad on Wednesday depicting a video game in which Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) puts up Flock cameras, followed by Hinojosa shooting them down.

“In Greg Abbott’s Texas, we’re all sitting ducks. Ten thousand cameras tracking your every move,” the narrator says in the ad. “This ain’t some quack talk conspiracy. It’s foul play by big government. And Abbott wants more.”

“Texas, let’s get our freedoms back,” the ad concludes.

Hinojosa has made opposition to Flock’s automated license plate readers a large part of her gubernatorial campaign. The cameras have faced significant backlash, as many communities view them as surveillance technology that infringes on their privacy.

Abbott, however, has taken action against Flock. In September, Abbott halted the issuance of permits for new ALPR cameras along state highways. Prior to the pause, the governor ordered state agencies to stop all funding for the cameras, though his office emphasized that nearly all Flock cameras in the state are purchased by cities through federal funding.

The Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC is launching a $1.2 million ad buy in Mississippi days before the state’s Senate election, going all in on the messaging against Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith’s (R-MS) quote suggesting Mississippians choose another protein.

Hyde-Smith’s Democratic challenger, Scott Colom, has hit the Republican hard on her quote from an interview in which she told constituents that there are many other proteins to choose from if people are worried about the high price of beef. Colom has picked up the slogan “pick another senator” in response to the quote.

On Wednesday, the super PAC stood firm on its main attack line against Hyde-Smith, with an ad that features a voice at a fast-food drive-thru telling a customer who wants a burger to choose again.

“It’s real expensive right now, but the senator’s got a suggestion: ‘You know you have so many proteins to choose from,'” the ad says.

Polling in the race puts Hyde-Smith ahead, with the Cook Political Report deeming it “likely Republican.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) predicted that if Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul el Sayed wins next week, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) will be the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee.

“I told you, the eyes of the country are on Michigan,” Cruz said while stumping for Republican Mike Rogers. “I believe if el Sayed wins, the Democrat nominee for president in 2028 will be AOC.”

Cruz explained that his prediction is based on the idea that el Sayed, a progressive Democrat, winning a statewide election would be viewed as a sign of success for the left-wing flank of the party.

“Look, in the primary, the No. 1 argument against AOC is she’s too extreme to win the general,” Cruz said. “If el Sayed wins, they’ll say, ‘Nope. You can nominate a complete moonbat, and a swing state like Michigan will vote for her.'”

The senator, who has also floated the possibility of running in 2028, also warned against viewing an Ocasio-Cortez candidacy as a win for the GOP.

“I just want to warn you: we’re a divided country,” he said. “How many people on Sept. 11, 2001, could possibly imagine that Zohran Mamdani would be the mayor of New York City? Look, if AOC is the nominee, she could win.”

Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) is aiming to boost his bipartisan appeal ahead of Election Day in Arizona, touting cross-party endorsements from Democrats and support from local leaders seven days before voters cast their ballots.

“Our campaign is supported by local leaders from across AZ06 — county supervisors, mayors and council members. Independents. Republicans. And Democrats,” Ciscomani wrote on X.

CANDIDATES IN PURPLE STATES TOUT CROSS-PARTY ENDORSEMENTS IN APPEAL TO MARGINAL VOTERS

The incumbent Republican is facing a challenge in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District from Democrat Marine veteran JoAnna Mendoza, who has received a large push in support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The Cook Political Report shifted the race in October to “leans Democrat.”

Ciscomani, who is also endorsed by national Republicans including President Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), also rebuked a Trump rally in October, telling the Arizona Republic that he had prior plans.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio will join President Donald Trump in Ohio on Wednesday, marking the second day in a row the Cabinet official will rally with the commander in chief ahead of the midterm elections.

Rubio appeared with Trump twice on Tuesday as the president held back-to-back rallies in Texas. The secretary of state will now travel with Trump again to Chillicothe, Ohio, according to Bloomberg. The president has visited Ohio twice this month.

Rubio’s stage presence in Texas was brief, and it was not immediately clear whether he would be handling other business while in the Buckeye State. He has largely steered clear of the midterm elections in the past several months.

The secretary of state’s showing his face on the campaign trail is notable, as he is floated as one of the Republican Party’s top picks for the 2028 presidential nomination. Vice President JD Vance has also been considered a likely 2028 nominee, but Trump has not indicated his preference, only noting that he “likes” both officials.

The Washington Examiner reached out to the State Department for confirmation.

Georgia’s Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson is spending big in his own race, investing over $200 million of his personal funds into his campaign.

Jackson, the billionaire founder of Jackson Healthcare, self-funded his February campaign launch and has since heavily invested his own money. Jackson reached the nine-digit figure after he gave $92.5 million since the previous funding reports in August, and gave $4.5 million within the last week after the Oct. 20 deadline, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Jackson has a massive fundraising advantage over Democratic candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, who raised $23.2 million in the latest reporting period since August, $69.3 million less than Jackson, per the outlet.

The race is listed as a toss-up by Cook Political Report, with Jackson leading within the margin of error according to RealClearPolitics’s average of the election’s polls.

With just six days before Election Day, over 35 million voters have cast their ballots either by mail or in-person early voting.

According to NBC News, 47% of votes counted thus far were cast by registered Democrats. Republicans trail at 35%, while third-party voters have cast 18% of early votes.

In battleground states, the margins are somewhat closer, as Republicans have cast 39% of early and mail-in votes counted while Democrats remain at 47%. The states included as battlegrounds in the dataset are Maine, New Hampshire, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio, Kansas, North Carolina, Arkansas, Georgia, and Texas.

While approximately 35.4 million votes have been counted so far, 16.8 million were sent by mail, and 18.5 million were cast in person.

Texas leads in the number of early votes cast, as 5.2 million voters have submitted their ballots in the highly contested Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. In the same period during the 2022 midterm elections, only 3.4 million votes had been counted.

Democrats have gained ground in two gubernatorial races as the nonpartisan political analysis firm Cook Political Report shifted the Nebraska and Kansas races in the party’s favor.

According to CPR, the party is slated to win two chief executive seats currently held by Republicans. The partisan split in governors’ mansions is 26-24, with the GOP in the lead, but a particularly bad election could see the party lose as many as four seats.

On the chopping block are Iowa, Alaska, and Ohio, with Georgia also seeing the possibility of going for Democrats.

The pollster shifted the Nebraska governor’s race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” and the Kansas race was moved from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.”

The GOP appears to have lost some of its edge in Kansas, as CPR shifted the race in favor of Democrat Cindy Holscher as she takes on Republican nominee Ty Masterson, who has the backing of President Donald Trump. The pollster said the reason for the shift in part has to do with the state’s competitive Senate race growing closer in recent weeks.

“Republicans still feel optimistic about flipping this race, and it remains their best takeover opportunity, but the volatility of the contest merits it being in a more competitive column,” CPR said.

In the Cornhusker State, Gov. Jim Pillen (R-NE) is facing Democratic challenger Lynne Walz, as well as two other candidates from the state’s America First Party and the Legal Marijuana Now party.

“The crowded ballot and Pillen’s unpopularity create enough uncertainty that we are moving it into a more competitive category,” CPR said in its analysis.

Should Democrats win between two and four governorships in the midterm elections, it will mark the first time the party holds more chief executives than the GOP since 2010.

Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) hit the campaign trail in Georgia this week to stump for Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) in his reelection campaign against Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA).

“GEORGIA is fired up to reelect Jon Ossoff!” Spanberger wrote on X with images of herself at his campaign event.

Ossoff is leading Collins in the polls, with the race ranked “likely Democrat” by election forecaster Cook Political Report. Spanberger’s visit comes just ahead of Ossoff’s rally with former President Barack Obama and Georgia’s Democratic gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms.

Bottoms is locked in a toss-up race against Republican Rick Jackson and just received a $5 million funding boost from the Democratic Governors’ Association.

By all accounts, Tennessee state Rep. Justin Pearson’s bid to succeed retiring Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN) is a long shot. But with just one week until Election Day, Democrats are eyeing the seat as early voting in the gerrymandered district significantly outpaces 2022 levels and the race’s only campaign poll shows Pearson within striking distance.

In Shelby County, which contains the Memphis part of the district, there has been a 60% increase in ballots cast at this point in 2022, according to Tennessee’s secretary of state’s office. Early voting is lagging behind 2018 totals, however, by almost 8 points.

The turnout surge comes amid a broader nationwide battle over race and redistricting, following an April Supreme Court ruling that struck down a Louisiana congressional map drawn to create a second majority-black district. In May, the Tennessee Republican legislature, led by Gov. Bill Lee (R-TN), moved to pass a new congressional map of its own.

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