White House officials will travel to London in January to begin trade talks with the new government of Boris Johnson but amid growing signs that U.K. leaders are putting a free trade agreement with Washington on the back burner.
President Trump and his ally Johnson have both talked up the benefits of a quick deal removing restrictions on trade once Britain withdraws from the European Union. Johnson secured a large majority in last week’s election, paving the way for Brexit next month.
However, two senior Conservative figures said political calculations meant British officials had begun reducing expectations for a quick U.S. agreement so they could focus instead on deals with smaller partners.
“The latest I am hearing is that the U.S. will take a lower priority because it’s one of the most unpopular ones,” said a senior Conservative strategist. “The feeling in government is that they want to get some quick wins.”
The president and prime minister spoke by telephone Monday.
“The two leaders reaffirmed their commitment to further strengthening cooperation on a range of issues, including the negotiation of a United States-United Kingdom free trade agreement,” according to a White House readout of the call.
Larry Kudlow, Trump’s chief economic adviser, announced this week that he would be traveling to London next month.
“We look forward to a trade deal with Prime Minister Boris Johnson … we have all along — the president has said this — and we’ll probably get started very soon,” he told reporters in the White House briefing room.
He said he would be traveling with National Security Council official Matt Pottinger in early January to discuss a range of issues, including trade. He did not offer a specific timeline other than to say he hoped a deal could be reached “as soon as possible.”
Johnson has said he would love to conclude a deal within a year, opening the United States to everything from British pork pies to train carriages, but he has also warned of the difficulties.
“There are massive opportunities for U.K. companies to open up, to prize open the American market,” he said in August. “We intend to seize those opportunities, but they are going to require our American friends to compromise and to open up their approach, because currently there are too many restrictions.”
However, the issue was used by opposition parties to attack Johnson during the election amid claims that British consumers would be forced to accept lower food safety standards in the event of a deal with Washington.
That, plus the complexity of negotiating a deal with Britain’s largest single-nation trading party, also means Johnson’s team at No. 10 is looking at other trade deals first, according to the strategist.
That would suggest officials are focused first on members of Britain’s former empire, such as Australia.
In addition, officials are wondering whether they would be able to reach a deal with Washington as Trump ramps up his reelection campaign next year. Worse, they fear wasting time on negotiations if Trump loses and a Democrat takes power, he added. “They would give it less of a priority,” he said.
A senior Conservative Member of Parliament said there is a growing realization of the political costs of a free trade deal with the U.S.
“The scale of America’s vast arable farms means they are virtually producing wheat for nothing,” he said. “How are British farmers going to compete with that?”
