It’s not over yet, but President Trump is off to a terrible start in the presidential campaign. In matchups with Joe Biden, Trump has been sinking. By this time, mid-June, we often have a good idea of who has the better chance of winning in November. It’s not Trump.
Whatever “acting presidentially” consists of, Trump hasn’t found it. His stunt of standing in front of St. John’s Episcopal Church while holding a Bible reminded no one of George Washington. And Trump’s insinuations about MSNBC political yakker Joe Scarborough and the 75-year-old man who was knocked over by police in Buffalo, New York, didn’t work either.
On the two big national issues of 2020, the president has not shined. True, the media coverage of his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and the protests and demonstrations following the death of George Floyd has been biased as usual. Even so, he was less than impressive.
Nor has he come to grips with one of his biggest problems: talking too loosely and haughtily in public. This allows the press to play up his impolitic comments and treat his policy successes as secondary. The Washington Post lives on Trump’s faux pas.
So why does the president still have a serious shot at reelection? Two reasons. One is the largely untapped issue of Democratic state and local officials’ inability to deal with violence and unrest. One can imagine Trump arguing that by tolerating bad behavior, they actually cause it.
The other reason is that Biden has kept a low profile in the campaign — and would like to continue doing so. He’s not a natural leader, and his views are a reflection of what he’s been told by brainier Democrats such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren. is
It’s not a coincidence that the most violent demonstrations and mayhem have occurred in states and cities controlled by Democratic governors and mayors: Minnesota, Seattle, New York, Illinois — to cite only a few. As the saying goes, there are no coincidences in politics.
Big cities tend to attract young people, those with liberal and left-wing political views, and the poor. As a result, it’s not a surprise that politicians who share some or all of this hard-left thinking balk at cracking down on violent protesters and are likely to win elective offices.
That was the case in Minneapolis. Jacob Frey, a 38-year-old lawyer, was elected mayor in 2017. After Floyd was killed in police custody on May 25, Frey declined to order law enforcement to use stronger interventions against gathering crowds. That’s the formula for heading off riots. Likewise, absent overwhelming force, bands of looters ransacked stores in Manhattan with little interference and started fires.
On May 31, in Chicago, 18 people were murdered in 24 hours, the city’s most violent day in at least 60 years. Then, in Seattle, the combined forces of antifa and Black Lives Matter routed police, took over a seven-block area, and declared it an “autonomous zone.”
Trump has scarcely touched on these riot-damaged cities, but he’d be wise to start mentioning their Democratic overseers. He hasn’t talked up (in public, anyway) his desire to win black voters. He has a compelling talking point: The increases in black people’s earnings in his three years as president have more than doubled the gains from Barack Obama’s eight years.
Spending and taxes also await the president’s attention. The House passed a $3 trillion bill, nearly a third of it earmarked for state and local governments, and Democrats desperately want their share. They’d use it for normal spending — effectively dunning taxpayers in other states. The bill would also provide a huge tax break for the rich, which Democrats see as a payoff to the party’s wealthy donors.
And what about Biden? There’s still speculation in political circles regarding whether he might be replaced as the presidential choice. It’s probably idle chatter, but it reflects real worries about his ability as a candidate in a strenuous race against Trump.
Biden, 77, is a halting and forgetful speaker. If the usual three nationally televised debates occur, Trump would no doubt try to rattle Biden and pressure him into making mistakes — on his agenda of tax hikes, for instance.
But Biden has something Trump lacks: geniality. He’s very friendly and likable. This has been a source of his success in national politics going back to his election as senator at age 30.
One more thing. The 2020 campaign is the fastest moving ever. Issues change overnight. Small matters, if relentlessly pushed by the press, can linger for days. The question is whether Biden can keep up. Everyone knows Trump can.
Fred Barnes is a Washington Examiner senior columnist.
