President Trump’s campaign has reached a critical moment. Focusing on himself alone as the most important factor in his bid for reelection no longer works. It’s unlikely to deliver a come-from-behind victory even over a candidate as weak as Joe Biden. To pull off an upset as he did in 2016, Trump needs an issue.
As luck would have it, one has been sitting in plain view. It’s the economy. And it is more than just an issue. It’s a narrative to be repeated in every Trump speech, interview, and especially in the scheduled debate with Biden on Oct. 22.
Gallup found that 56% of registered voters believe they are better off now than they were four years ago when Trump’s presidency began. This compares with 45% who said their lives had improved during Barack Obama’s first term and 47% who said their lives had gotten better in George W. Bush’s first four years in the White House.
What caused the jump in satisfied Americans under Trump? Here’s what the Trump economy produced: a dramatic surge that created record-low unemployment, especially among blacks, higher incomes, and a whopping boost in the stock market.
The pandemic caused a deep recession this year that brought with it a political opportunity for Trump. He now has a dominant issue. He can spell out how he aims to spur the economy to record growth and jobs and prosperity a second time.
A late leap forward in a presidential race in which he trails Biden by 10 percentage points in credible polls won’t emerge on its own. In his rallies, the economic narrative needs to be the focus for 30 to 45 minutes, maybe more, to buttress his promise of an American revival.
Fortunately for Trump, the economy is an issue he understands well. That’s why his sweeping tax cuts of 2017, his encouragement of the Federal Reserve’s emphasis on low interest rates, and his deregulation of government rules have worked so well.
This sudden shift in the campaign will be difficult for Biden to handle. He’s already on his second economic agenda. The first included overturning all of Trump’s tax cuts and embracing most of Elizabeth Warren’s spending plans and some (if not all) of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s schemes to overhaul the lifestyle of most of the public.
More recently, Biden has declared that his tax increases won’t hit those earning $400,000 or less in annual income. But he has serious explaining to do to make his current stance as a centrist believable. And left-wing Democrats, who love big tax hikes, will have to be assuaged.
That’s not Biden’s only trouble. Karl Rove, the Wall Street Journal columnist and political sage, has noted the many policies on which Biden has backtracked as he abandoned leftist positions he had endorsed in the Democratic primaries.
Trump has a problem, too, one he’s declined to confront throughout his presidency. It’s his personality. Trump is not “presidential” and doesn’t try to be. He flips expectations: He’s pleasant in private, awful in public. This costs him politically. My guess is he’s driving away several million potential Trump voters. If the election gets close, he’ll need them.
Having observed presidents up close since Gerald Ford, I have an idea where Trump goes wrong. He violates Richard Nixon’s rule against “shooting down” — that is, by attacking the “little people.” He insults foreign leaders, needlessly alienating them. He lacks control over what he says in tweets, press conferences, and informal situations. Silence in his case would, more often than not, be golden.
But, at long last, he appears to be getting a bit more presidential. He smiles, laughs, tells jokes, and is willing to put on a MAGA hat at rallies with friendly crowds. He loses nothing by looking happy and could gain votes the more he does.
Trump looks bad when he boasts about his triumphs as president. Nobody likes a braggart. But the elite media’s practice of refusing to acknowledge his multiple successes has given the president a legitimate grievance against them. Three new Supreme Court justices in four years? The Left opposes them, but in truth, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett are impressive and as open-minded as Ruth Bader Ginsburg and the other liberal justices have ever been. Treating the Trump nominees largely as targets for investigative reporting reflects nasty bias and unprofessional journalism.
If Trump wins a second term, I’ll be as shocked as I was four years ago. And just as glad.
Fred Barnes is a Washington Examiner senior columnist.
