Democrats live in fear of Donald Trump. They’re afraid he will be the Republican presidential nominee in 2024. Worse yet, they fear he’ll win back the White House. Not only that, they see him as a threat to dominate national politics over the next four years like he did as president.
As Democrats have said over and over, what’s important about convicting Trump for trying to stir an “insurrection” on Jan. 6 is that it would allow them to take the big next step: They could bar him from running for president again. That’s their goal.
Yes, I’m exaggerating a bit here. Democrats are more than a little paranoid when it comes to Trump. Their loathing of him has caused them to see Trump the person as evil and to forget about the conservative policies that bolstered his presidency.
The truth is, Democrats and their allies in the media worry too much about a Trump revival. The outcome of the 2024 election is unknowable. So are the identities of the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees. At this point, I’m persuaded the odds are against Trump’s winning a second four-year term in the White House.
There are plenty of reasons for this, starting with Trump’s age. In 2024, he’ll be 78. He’s likely to have lost a step, and his mental acuity may slip a bit. Aging does that. Trump might continue to be as vigorous at 78 as he is at 74. But chances are he won’t be. He’s famous for getting by on very little sleep. By 2024, he may need more.
Let’s look at the last 78-year-old who won the presidency, Joe Biden. He wasn’t known for his vigor, that’s for sure. Nor was he a smooth speaker. Biden seemed forgetful at times, stumbled in finishing sentences, mispronounced names, and so on. He was viewed as likable but not articulate.
So how did he win? Simple: His opponent ran a worse campaign. Biden easily beat Trump, who never spelled out what he would do in a new term. Trump also lost badly in the suburbs and among independents, once Republican strongholds. He also performed poorly in the debates, interrupting and shouting in hopes of rattling Biden.
There’s another reason Trump may have trouble in 2024. The mood and issues of politics may have changed, perhaps dramatically. Trump may find this to be familiar. He benefited from this in 2016, when Hillary Clinton was his Democratic foe. She never adjusted to the shift in the lay of the political land. Trump did.
He appealed to working-class voters. They had gradually drifted over several decades from voting for Democratic candidates to an increasing willingness to back Republicans. And Trump cleverly took advantage of this. He spoke at outdoor rallies that drew enthusiastic crowds of lower-middle-class voters. Hillary relied heavily on TV ads and liberal voters.
If Trump runs in 2024, he’s likely to discover he’s the old man of the candidate class. His rivals will be in their 40s or 50s, and even at their age, have more political experience than Trump. They include senators such as Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Marco Rubio of Florida, and Tim Scott of South Carolina. The question is whether Trump could keep up.
His set of issues may still be relevant but seem less timely — immigration, China, infrastructure, oil. In 2016, Trump’s bluster and quick-wittedness allowed him to stand out in debates without focusing on specifics of issues. Those skills may not do the trick in 2024. Trump refuses to be a detail guy, but this may do more harm than good.
Then are the matters that killed his reelection bid in 2020. His often crude style drove away voters in prosperous suburbs and among finicky conservatives. If he has a plan to attract those groups again, he hasn’t let on.
It may be close to impossible to get their votes. What he plans to do after the impeachment ordeal ends won’t mollify them. His first order of business, aides have said, is to crack down on disloyal Republicans. I suspect it’s a larger group than Trump imagines.
Democrats haven’t caught on. Their actions against Trump only strengthen his hold on Republicans. But they have their reasons. “Nothing unites their party like hating Trump,” says Michael Goodwin of the New York Post. “It’s the glue that holds them together and prevents the factions from breaking into civil war.”
Fred Barnes is a Washington Examiner senior columnist.
