Until his misguided response to the pandemic and the protests and riots following the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, President Trump had at least a 50-50 chance of winning reelection.
But by pushing himself front and center in 2020 with defenses of his decision-making, unflagging self-promotion, and his idle thoughts, Trump undercut his prospects for a second term. Winning on Nov. 3 will require an impressive comeback.
Democrats, with Joe Biden as their presidential candidate, hadn’t expected to be in such a strong position with the election just over four months away. Trump, for all his bluster, had united Republicans and solidified a working-class base.
This had seemed nearly impossible when Trump took office. He was an outsider, untutored in the presidency, lacking a clear set of political principles, and suspected by Democrats of having gotten Russian help in winning the 2016 election.
Republicans were worried about the ideological direction he would take in the White House. To their pleasant surprise, he emerged as a conservative. And this, more than anything else, brought the party together behind Trump. He cut taxes, nominated two conservatives to the Supreme Court, and adopted the anti-abortion position he had spurned years earlier as a Democrat. Nor did he follow an isolationist foreign policy as had been feared.
His behavior was hardly “presidential.” Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans focused on his fits of anger, exaggerations, untruths, penchant for stirring bitter controversies, and unnecessary disputes with foreign leaders, among others.
Democrats failed at fighting Trump. They did themselves no favor by vowing to reject compromise with the president to be the resistance. The effect was to further strengthen Trump in his own party. Nasty opposition by the elite press had similar effects.
Perhaps Democrats couldn’t help themselves from trying character assassination against Trump’s two Supreme Court nominees. When they failed, Trump got the credit. He filled all 53 vacancies on the 12 federal appeals court, a record for a president’s first term.
Trump had one more triumph. Democrats and the media created a “narrative” about collusion between Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin in the 2016 election. A special prosecutor with a huge and predominantly anti-Trump staff investigated the case. Alas, there was no collusion: Trump had won again, embarrassing Democrats and shaming the press.
By 2020, Trump began to act as if success was his Godly inheritance. Yes, Democrats had regained the House in the 2018 midterm election. This was normal. The “out” party usually wins the first midterm for a new president.
When word spread about the COVID-19 virus, a cocky Trump was quick to insist that it posed little danger. He was what’s known as “winging it” on this. His optimism was make-believe. In fact, he barely had a clue.
As the virus worsened, the president and two medical experts held daily briefings. Then Trump began to stay after the experts departed to respond to questions. He was over his head. And it showed. Hostile reporters prevailed.
Once the pandemic began to wane, Trump faced a tough choice. There was plenty of evidence the time had come to reopen the economy. It had been closed down to keep people from mingling, thus spreading the virus.
Besides, the jobless rate was soaring to record highs. Trump opted to free the economy from restraints, and this appeared to work — at first. Then with the rate of infection climbing, states imposed new rules. Polls, reflecting the views of the press and Democrats, showed most people favored a new clampdown.
A second crisis of demonstrations alongside riots and violence erupted in dozens of cities. A radical group known as Black Lives Matter, which calls for emptying prisons and firing police, insisted “systemic” racism and anti-black police were oppressing black people. Democrats and the media agreed.
What was Trump to do? He didn’t have a plan or a high-toned speech to deliver. He tried a stunt. He walked to nearby St. John’s Episcopal Church, which had been firebombed earlier, and held up a Bible. The media sneered at the president. Their news judgment was that protesters who had been pushed aside to let Trump through were the story. Weeks later, the Washington Post was still covering that story.
Two big events in 2020, both at Trump’s expense, and an economy he had driven to new heights, now sidelined by a contagious disease. Trump has a big job on his hands.
Fred Barnes is a Washington Examiner senior columnist.
