One of the puzzles of today’s politics is why Republicans are willing and eager to stick with President Trump. It isn’t a puzzle to everyone, but anti-Trump Republicans have trouble understanding the phenomenon. At every opportunity, they remind Republicans of Trump’s latest outrage or indiscretion as if it is grounds for breaking with him.
Republicans were told recently they should react to Trump’s Ukraine fiasco as their predecessors did to the revelation in August 1974 of the so-called smoking gun tape that led GOP leaders in Congress to abandon President Richard Nixon, prompting him to resign. And a historian noted that those who repudiated Nixon, embracing principle over party, are remembered more favorably than those who didn’t. These examples had no noticeable effect on the Republican masses.
Democrats and some liberal columnists have their own explanation for the refusal of most Republicans to take a hike from Trump: They’re cowards, afraid of being pilloried by the Trump gang.
All this fuss misses the obvious motivation for loyalty to Trump. Republicans have stayed with him because he’s committed to moving the country in a conservative direction. There’s no GOP alternative at the moment. The Democrats are left-wing activists. Even as an imperfect conservative, Trump wins them over by default.
The 2020 election will, broadly speaking, be like the 2016 race, a conservative against a liberal. Whoever wins the Democratic nomination is bound to be even farther left than Hillary Clinton. Joe Biden started as an exception, but he’s moved closer to the other candidates. He’s at least as liberal as Clinton.
In 2016, the most salient ideological issue was who would pick the Supreme Court justice to fill Antonin Scalia’s conservative seat. This allowed an unknown number of Republicans wary of Trump — probably millions of them — to vote for him. Letting Clinton fill the seat was seen as unacceptable.
This issue will arise again in 2020. It’s still a major reason for Republican loyalty because it identifies Trump as a conservative. He’s put two conservatives on the court and is ready to choose another for the next vacancy. If his Democratic opponent promises to nominate a moderate or an “independent,” no one would believe it, particularly if it’s Elizabeth Warren.
The president’s Republican critics have never let up on the character issue. It has the virtue of being credible. But does bad character explain his decision to stop protecting pro-American Kurds in Syria, as one conservative writer contended? Even if true, that notion isn’t likely to cause many (if any) Republicans to turn against Trump.
Nor is a partisan impeachment by Democrats. The analogy between the Ukrainian mess and Watergate is, to put it mildly, strained. But Trump does have a problem that must be dealt with effectively or he won’t have a second term.
That problem is unpresidential behavior. It’s responsible both for the furor of Democrats and the alienation of soft Republicans and independents. It spurs high voter turnout by Democrats and low turnout, or worse, among Republicans.
What’s worse than Republicans not voting? It’s when millions who normally vote Republican express their displeasure with Trump’s boorish conduct by voting for Democratic candidates. This occurred in the midterm election in 2018 and again on Nov. 5 in the suburbs of Virginia and Pennsylvania.
Trump upsets middle-class, college-educated, and especially female voters. They dominate the suburban electorate. In 2016, without their votes, Trump wouldn’t be president. And he needs them again in 2020.
But his advisers appear to be inclined to wait until a few months before Election Day before pressuring him to clean up his act. It’s similar to the decision made by manager A.J. Hinch of the Houston Astros in the seventh inning of Game 7 of the World Series. His best pitcher, Gerrit Cole, was available, but he brought in a reliever who gave up a home run that lost the game and the series. Why not Cole? Hinch was saving him for later, to protect the Astros’ lead in the ninth inning.
Trump’s advisers are making the same mistake. Or it might be that Trump is to blame. Surely, it’s dawned on him that he has to act more appropriately, even pretending to be courteous and self-deprecating. But he’s put off when the new conduct begins. Sorry, sir, but the time for change is now. The ninth inning has begun.
The idea that Trump is addicted to being rough, crude, and crass and can’t change is untrue. He changed in the final weeks of the 2016 campaign, particularly after the leak of the Access Hollywood tape. He stopped ad-libbing and cut back on tweets.
The task of winning back lost voters will take longer than it did the last time. His image is toxic and deeply embedded in the public’s mind.
By starting his clean-up effort now, he can win reelection. Delay is death.
Fred Barnes is a Washington Examiner senior columnist.
