Mike Bloomberg bombed in his debut at a Democratic presidential debate. Rep. James Clyburn, the highest-ranking African American in Congress, urged South Carolina voters to back Joe Biden in their presidential primary. Biden won in a 48% blowout. Two rivals, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Biden. He was triumphant on Super Tuesday, winning 10 primaries to four for Bernie Sanders. Bloomberg won in American Samoa, quit the race, and now backs Biden.
Together, these events have catapulted Biden from an also-ran to the front-runner for the Democratic nomination. But if only one of the events hadn’t occurred, the string of connections would have been snapped, and Biden’s candidacy would be dead. A strong debate performance by Bloomberg, for example, would have elevated him as a serious challenger capable of draining votes from Biden on Super Tuesday. No Clyburn intervention, no Biden landslide. And so on.
There’s an old baseball saying that it’s better to be lucky than good. And Biden is the luckiest presidential candidate ever (at least in my memory). But to capture his party’s nomination and defeat President Trump, he’ll have to be a better candidate than he’s ever been before. He’ll have to be very good at running for president.
He’s run for president twice before, but his campaigns in 1988 and 2008 were embarrassing failures. In 1988, he was exposed for plagiarizing the life story of British politician Neil Kinnock and exaggerating his record in law school. He was forced to drop out. Two decades later, he stirred so little support that he withdrew after getting less than 1% in the Iowa caucuses. It appeared he hadn’t learned much about running for president.
But as luck would have it, he wound up in the White House anyway as Barack Obama’s vice president for eight years. However, his most notable advice to Obama was not to proceed with the killing of Osama bin Laden, who had ordered the 9/11 attacks.
Biden is anything but a polished debater. The media have been known to give him credit for doing well if his performance is merely gaffe-free. In 2012, when he debated Rep. Paul Ryan, then GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney’s running mate, he concentrated on trying to rattle his foe rather than argue about issues. Neither the moderator nor the press objected to his disruptive tactic either.
But gaffes remain a problem for Biden. When speaking off the cuff, he is undisciplined. He recalled recently that South African officials had arrested him when he tried to visit Nelson Mandela. It wasn’t true, but it was difficult to tell if Biden had exaggerated something that had occurred in South Africa or if he was simply confused.
After his Super Tuesday sweep, Biden delivered an enthusiastic speech. He could have injected a serious point or two about his candidacy, as Obama would have. But he didn’t. He offered a stream of applause lines. It was a wasted moment.
Biden faces a daunting task: combat with Trump. Democratic voters flocked to him because they believe he stands a better chance of ousting Trump than Sanders does. I suspect the voters are right. At least Biden doesn’t have the stigma of “socialist” attached to him.
Trump was an extraordinary candidate in 2016. He won the nomination while spending very little and hiring no GOP consultants. He is a great campaigner. His rallies still work. His base loves them. Biden doesn’t really have a loyal base behind him, only a loosely knit party.
And Trump has improved noticeably as a candidate and debater. In 2016, he lost the first debate with Hillary Clinton, did better in the second, and won the third. He’s also ruthless and poised to attack Biden about anything: wearing a too-short tie, for instance. Biden cannot afford to make mistakes with Trump around.
But Biden has one thing Trump cannot match. He is very likable. This is important. Voters are attracted to candidates they like. This trait made it easier for primary voters to grab on to Biden after his big win in South Carolina. He’s likable and can beat Trump. What more could a Democratic voter ask for? I barely know Biden, yet he’s always been friendly whenever I’ve run into him. I can’t help but like him. On the other hand, I know Trump voters who don’t like the man, but vote for him.
Another baseball saying is that you make your own luck. Sounds hard but not impossible.
