Trump's path to reelection is narrow but exists

There are no such polls, at least public ones. But the effect of leaving out three big states points to how close the presidential contest has become. The betting odds, with Biden leading 52.1% to 47.5%, suggest the same thing.

An imaginary poll isn’t predictive, but it is suggestive. And in this case, its message may be realistic. It implies the most viable path to a Trump victory is through a majority in the Electoral College, just as it was in 2016. Besides, his lack of popularity in California, New York, and Illinois makes winning the popular vote near to impossible.

The election’s outcome, however, remains a matter of guesswork. Trump has trailed Biden in polls for months. And he has a series of difficult political tasks ahead of him.

The first of three debates with Biden is scheduled for Sept. 29. Trump is not a good debater. He doesn’t like to practice or study the weaknesses of an opponent. The result four years ago: He lost two of the debates with Hillary Clinton and wasn’t a commanding presence in the third.

In a televised appearance last week on ABC, Trump showed what happens when he misunderstands a major issue — in this case, healthcare. He was interrupted by ABC anchor George Stephanopoulos, who took him to the cleaners on the issue.

There’s a question as to whether Biden will pull out of the debates. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has urged him to, saying Trump is too unpleasant and insulting to deal with. She hasn’t spoken to the president in nearly a year.

But dropping out, even with the COVID-19 pandemic as an excuse, may be too politically risky in a tight race. But Biden, though a stumbling speaker and facing the pressure of a 90-minute confrontation with Trump, is an experienced debater with a clever streak. He could fool Trump.

Another important date for Trump is Oct. 2, when the monthly economic report is released. “The Atlanta Fed’s GDP NOW estimate has the economy in the third quarter at nearly 31 percent,” the Wall Street Journal reported. Trump needs to talk intelligently about the good news.

Then there are two sets of states his campaign is focused on. There’s Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan — the “battleground states.” Winning narrowly in all six delivered the presidency to him in 2016. Now, he needs a repeat, but Michigan is a very long shot.

States in the second group — New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada — are personal picks of Trump in which he’s an underdog. Nonetheless, he devoted two rallies to Nevada, which has been trending left for two decades.

Least of all in Trump’s mind are two changes in his style. He does eight or nine events a day, too many. He flubs some as a result, notably the ABC appearance. A wise strategist wants the president to look at old tapes of Reagan, who did one or two daily. Aides think Reagan is the only former Republican president Trump admires and thus might learn from.

All of these state and style matters are peanuts next to what Trump needs the most — a big picture issue. It’s out there: the attack on America by the political Left, BLM, rioters, useless mayors, half the Democrats, and most of the intellectual class. It towers over his clash with Biden and the mundane matters of the campaign. But Trump hasn’t succeeded in bringing it to life and elevating the threat to America above all else.

This is what Reagan knew how to do. He concentrated on defeating communism, reviving our economy, and stirring the American spirit — nothing more. Trump has time to capture today’s biggest issue, saving America. If he does, he and his allies can stop dreaming about polls that lead beyond the Electoral College and a second term.

Fred Barnes is a Washington Examiner senior columnist.