Senate, House, and governor’s races dominate the political headlines ahead of the Nov. 8 midterm elections. But they’re hardly the only choices of consequence voters will make, with scores of initiatives and referendums up for consideration.
Voters in 35 states will decide on a total of 129 ballot measures. Some are routine and technical in nature. Many of the 2022 ballot measures, though, are focused on hotly debated political topics, with considerable overlap on high-profile candidate races. Here are two of the most active 2022 ballot measures and referendum topics.
Abortion
An early sign that the Supreme Court’s June 24 abortion decision on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization would drive voter turnout was the Aug. 2 defeat of a state ballot initiative that would have removed the right to an abortion from the Kansas Constitution. It also was the first vote on the topic since the Supreme Court overturned its 1973 Roe vs. Wade decision, effectively sending the issue back to the states to decide.
Kansas voters defeated the ballot initiative by nearly 20 percentage points, a notable margin in a state that has strong links to the anti-abortion movement. In the Nov. 8 midterm elections, similar proposals will be before voters in a pair of deeply blue states, California and Vermont, as well as Michigan, a premier political battleground.
California’s Proposition 1 says the state cannot “deny or interfere with an individual’s reproductive freedom in their most intimate decisions,” including whether to have an abortion or use contraceptives. Under existing California law, abortion is legal up to fetal viability, as well as after viability, if it is needed to protect the mother’s life or health. A 2002 law, the Reproductive Privacy Act, added language to state statutes to indicate there is a “fundamental right to choose to bear a child or to choose and to obtain an abortion.”
California, the nation’s most populous state, is strongly Democratic. In 2020, President Joe Biden beat former President Donald Trump there by an almost 2-to-1 margin. All of this suggests this fall’s abortion ballot proposition is on its way to passage.
The situation is similar across the country in Vermont, which has the nation’s second-smallest population. The Vermont Right to Personal Reproductive Autonomy Amendment would add language to the state’s constitution that would declare that “an individual’s right to personal reproductive autonomy is central to the liberty and dignity to determine one’s own life course.”
The proposal would effectively bolster a 2019 state law that “recognizes the fundamental right of every individual who becomes pregnant to choose to carry a pregnancy to term, to give birth to a child, or to have an abortion.” Vermont is strongly Democratic, and in 2020, Biden crushed Trump there 66% to 31%. So, the abortion ballot measure stands a good chance of passage.
It will be a tougher slog for abortion rights supporters in Michigan. The Wolverine State’s Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative would put on the books a “right to make and effectuate decisions about all matters relating to pregnancy, including but not limited to prenatal care, childbirth, postpartum care, contraception, sterilization, abortion care, miscarriage management, and infertility care.”
Currently, in Michigan, abortion is legal prior to fetal viability. After viability, an abortion can only be performed to preserve the life of the mother.
Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has said that because Roe v. Wade was overturned, Act 328 of 1931 of Michigan’s penal code, which bans abortion at the state level, could become enforceable. On Sept. 7, Michigan Court of Claims Judge Elizabeth Gleicher ruled the 1931 law unconstitutional.
The legal maneuvering sets up a pitched fall campaign on the voter initiative, with overtones for Whitmer’s reelection bid and several other high-profile races. That includes the state attorney general and secretary of state, along with a Democratic push to win control of one or both chambers in Michigan’s legislature.
Abortion ballot proposals go both ways in 2022, though, with proposals by opponents of the procedure getting votes this fall in a pair of states.
In Kentucky, voters on Nov. 8 will consider Amendment 2, which would put into law the notion that nothing in the state constitution creates a right to abortion or requires government funding for abortions.
The Kentucky measure is like the Kansas proposal that lost on Aug. 2. Four other states have constitutional amendments declaring that their constitutions do not secure or protect a right to abortion or require the funding of abortion.
Kentucky is a heavily Republican state, where in 2020 Trump beat Biden 62% to 36%. But the Kansas ballot measure, coupled with a string of House special elections in which Democrats increased their vote share, cautions against outright predictions of passage for the abortion ballot measure.
The same goes for Montana, where Trump beat Biden in 2020 57% to 41%. Voters statewide will consider Montana LR-131, the Medical Care Requirements for Born-Alive Infants Measure.
The proposal classifies an infant born alive as “a legal person for all purposes under the laws of the state … entitled to the protections of the laws, including the right to appropriate and reasonable medical care and treatment.”
It also would require medical care for infants who are born alive after a cesarean section, an attempted abortion, an induced labor, or some other method. The ballot measure would stipulate that a healthcare provider who “purposely, knowingly, or negligently violates” the policy by not giving medical care would be convicted of a felony, with its maximum sentence consisting of 20 years’ imprisonment and/or a fine of $50,000. Healthcare providers who are aware of such violations would also be required to notify law enforcement.
Changing state government
Arizona is effectively the center of the American political universe this fall. Trump-endorsed candidates face well-funded Democratic rivals for governor, attorney general, and secretary of state. And Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is trying to win a full, six-year term after coming to office in a 2020 special election.
Grand Canyon State voters, though, also have 10 ballot measures to consider, several of which would make major structural changes to state government.
Take Proposition 131, which would create the office of Arizona lieutenant governor. Arizona is one of five states without a lieutenant governor, and if the proposal becomes law, state legislators would decide on the office’s duties and powers.
It’s not an academic discussion in Arizona, where five of the past nine governors became the state’s chief executive when they were secretary of state or attorney general. Openings came through a governor’s death, impeachment and conviction, resignation, or accepting a job in the federal government. However, the proposal may be an uphill climb politically. Arizona voters in 1994 and 2010 rejected ballot measures to create the position of lieutenant governor.
Another three Arizona ballot measures take aim at the initiative and referendum process itself. Their overarching goal is to make it tougher for Arizona voters to pass state constitutional amendments by referendum, which Republicans say has been a backdoor way to sneak through liberal policy initiatives.
Proposition 128 would allow lawmakers to amend or repeal referendums if any section is struck down by Arizona’s Supreme Court or the U.S. Supreme Court. State lawmakers currently face strict limits on amending or repealing voter-approved laws.
Proposition 129 would require any voter-initiated referendum to be about a “single subject.” It’s an important distinction because supreme courts in other states have used this sort of requirement to block ballot measures.
And Proposition 130 would require any initiative that would approve a new tax pass with 60% of the vote instead of a bare majority.
These ballot propositions have support from conservatives unhappy with various voter-approved measures in recent years. Since 2016, voters have used ballot initiatives to, among other things, raise the Arizona minimum wage, legalize marijuana in the state (though it remains illegal at the federal level), increase taxes on the wealthy, raise teacher salaries, and require employers to provide sick time to their employees.
The chances for passage of one, some, or all of these ballot measures are uncertain. The races for Senate, governor, attorney general, secretary of state, along with several House seats and a bunch of legislative contests, are highly competitive. That reflects Arizona’s purple-state status after decades as a Republican redoubt. In 2020, Biden joined President Bill Clinton in 1996 as the only Democratic nominees to win Arizona since 1952. Arizona also has two Democratic senators for the first time since the early 1950s, and its House delegation has five Democrats and four Republicans.
Moreover, voters in far more conservative states than Arizona of late have not reacted kindly to efforts aimed at restricting ballot initiatives. On June 7, South Dakota primary voters rejected a ballot measure requiring any future ballot initiatives to increase taxes, or spend more than $10 million in five years, to pass with the support of at least 60% of the voters. The measure was aimed at thwarting a proposal to expand Medicaid eligibility that voters will consider in November.
