All it would take is a tweet.
President Trump’s intense popularity in Alabama is likely to help Republicans reclaim a Senate seat they lost in 2017. Still, a last-minute social media endorsement by the president could make or break the chances for Republicans vying for a spot on November’s ballot.
Trump has not endorsed any GOP Senate candidate in the Alabama race.
The president has been sharply critical of Jeff Sessions, his former embattled attorney general. Sessions is running to reclaim the Senate seat he held for two decades in Alabama before becoming Trump’s top law enforcement officer and earning his enmity by recusing himself from the Russia investigation.
Sessions will face off against a slew of Republican competitors in the March 3 primary, but his most formidable challengers are former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville and Rep. Bradley Byrne.
The winner is poised to defeat incumbent Doug Jones, a Democrat who won the seat by 1.5 percentage points in a special election.
The latest poll shows Sessions barely leading Tuberville, 31% to 29%, while Byrne registers a more distant third with 17%.
“The thing that would turn this race on its head is a tweet from Trump, and nobody knows if that is going to happen,” Jessica Taylor, an editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Washington Examiner.
While serving as Trump’s first attorney general, Sessions recused himself from oversight of what became a two-year investigation into whether the president’s 2016 campaign colluded with the Russians.
Sessions’s recusal infuriated Trump, and he frequently tweeted his disapproval.
Sessions resigned from the post in November 2018 and now faces some backlash on the campaign trail in Alabama from GOP voters who are angry he did nothing to stop the investigation, which Trump has described as a “hoax” and “witch hunt.”
Trump frequently used Twitter to ridicule Sessions during his tenure running the Justice Department.
“If all of the Russian meddling took place during the Obama Administration, right up to January 20th, why aren’t they the subject of the investigation?” Trump tweeted on Feb. 21, 2018. “Why didn’t Obama do something about the meddling? Why aren’t Dem crimes under investigation? Ask Jeff Sessions!”
Trump won Alabama by 28 points in 2016 and remains very popular in the state, polling shows.
Trump tweeting in favor of Tuberville or Sessions could push either of them over the 50% mark. Doing so eliminates a runoff election that would take place at the end of March.
“I think that the president will have a lot to do with what happens, but if the president does not weigh in, it will be an interesting four-week runoff,” Angi Horn Stalnaker, a Montgomery-based political strategist, told the Washington Examiner.
Sessions and his top GOP competitors are all running pro-Trump campaigns, and Sessions can tout his early endorsement of Trump’s 2016 campaign, as well as his continued loyalty to the president and his agenda.
Tuberville, however, has cast himself as a Trump-like outsider, “a politician’s worst nightmare,” who also enjoys name recognition thanks to the popularity of the Auburn football program.
Byrne, 65, is hammering Sessions for his troubled relationship with the president and touts a “97% pro-Trump voting record.” He released a new campaign ad last week attacking Sessions for his recusal from the Russia investigation.
“He let the president down, and got fired,” an actor proclaims about Sessions. “And Hillary still ain’t in jail,” another actor chimes in, referring to the “Lock her up” chants at Trump rallies.
Strategists believe Tuberville poses the biggest threat to Sessions.
“If it comes to a runoff between Tuberville and Sessions, I really think Sessions could be in trouble here,” Taylor told the Washington Examiner.
Especially if Trump suddenly decides to weigh in.
Sen. Richard Shelby, an Alabama Republican who chairs the powerful Appropriations Committee and frequently communicates with Trump, endorsed Sessions and wants Trump to stay out of the race.
Trump frequently ignores the advice of his GOP allies, however, and it may be difficult for the president to resist endorsing Tuberville, a two-time Southeastern Conference Coach of the Year who led his team to an SEC championship in 2004.
Tuberville’s first statewide radio advertisement, released in late January, declared, “God sent us Donald Trump because God knew we were in trouble.”
Trump also loves college football.
“It’s not hard to imagine him waking up one morning and deciding to tweet for Tuberville,” Taylor said. “And that would seal the race.”
