Twenty years ago the guy in charge of picking up the beer and pizza for the Prosperity Caucus—a group of socially awkward hill staffers, economists, and various D.C. denizens interested in issues related to growth and prosperity—decided to go back home and run for Congress. It was an unexpected move and one that was dissonant for a largely intellectual group whose monthly meetings typically revolve around an academic talking about his recent research.
The group’s first brush with electoral politics worked out pretty well: He won his race for Congress, moved up the greasy ladder and is now speaker of the House. Paul Ryan’s political-action committee is named after the Prosperity Caucus, in homage to his roots with the group.
A few months, ago, the guy currently tasked with making the group’s beer runs decided that he, too, felt compelled to run for political office.
Ryan’s beer-and-pizza successor hopes to keep up the Caucus’s undefeated streak. His name is Adam Roosevelt, a 25-year old veteran with a small business focused on cybersecurity.
Late in 2016 Roosevelt declared his candidacy for the 49th district, which includes the nearby D.C. suburbs, in the Virginia House of Delegates, which is currently held by the minority whip, a Democrat. Roosevelt, a Republican, knows he has an uphill race: 68 percent of the district voted for Hillary Clinton, but he remains sanguine about his chances.
For starters, he thinks that he will be able to count on the support of a strong and politically active small business community in his Arlington district as well as the veterans, and active military who live in the community.
He has also been indefatigably working the district, knocking on doors and meeting voters to hear what they want their state government to do—and not do. And he’s received a generally good reception thus far.
Roosevelt is a limited government Republican who—naturally, given his affiliation with the Prosperity Caucus—wants the federal and Virginia government to make growth a higher priority, but he is not a doctrinaire Republican by any means.
For instance, he has told his supporters he is a firm believer in mass transit for heavily urban areas like northern Virginia, and wants to see the state do more to ensure the continued health of Metro, albeit in a more cost-efficient way than the agency currently seems to be addressing its issues.
One wild card in the campaign is whether any proportion of the district’s African-American population will cross over from the Democratic party to vote for the African-American Roosevelt. If he does substantially better than the 5-10 ten the typical Republican receives this race will become a contest. It’s a tough nut to crack, of course, but there are signs that he is making inroads.
The wild card, of course, will be Donald Trump, whose polarizing nature will undoubtedly affect turnout on both sides. Roosevelt has steered clear of national issues, keeping his focus on the state and his Arlington District, but it’s beyond his power to neutralize the Trump factor.
If Roosevelt manages to win he will immediately become a darling of the Northern Virginia GOP and an inevitable candidate for Congress in the near future.
If he loses, his future in politics is still bright: Besides being a preternaturally gifted politician, the redistricting after the 2020 census could potentially present him with a district that is friendlier than his current one. And a decent performance in 2017 will give the Virginia’s GOP the motivation to help him out in the next electoral map, assuming they have a say in the mapmaking.
The GOP hasn’t done a great job recruiting minority candidates and thus far neither the state nor national party has gone out of its way to help him in any way.
But if Roosevelt demonstrates a modicum of success, that will hopefully change.
Ike Brannon is president of Capital Policy Analytics and is also affiliated with the Prosperity Caucus.
