DURING THE 1980S, RONALD Reagan got on famously with then Japanese prime minister Yasuhiro Nakasone. Their personal comity, dubbed the “Ron-Yasu” friendship, boosted American interests on a slew of Cold War and trade issues. And, at the time, U.S.-Japan ties reached historic postwar heights.
Nakasone was a maverick, fond of the bold stroke at home and abroad. So is Japan’s current prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi. His boldest stroke–supporting President Bush on the Iraq war–reflects a deeper pro-Americanism. Last Thursday, Tokyo extended its Iraq mission for another 12 months. The decision came as no surprise to anyone who’s been watching U.S.-Japan relations since Koizumi took office in April 2001. Indeed, the Bush-Koizumi bond may well eclipse “Ron-Yasu”–if it hasn’t already.
From day one, Bush embraced Koizumi as a vital partner. The U.S.-Japan alliance, of course, has fortified American security policy in East Asia for over 50 years. But Bush’s rapport with Koizumi went further than most. “I was with President Bush at Camp David when he first met with Koizumi,” says Howard Baker, the U.S. ambassador to Japan. “Almost instantly I could see that they got along well, and that they liked each other.” Baker, the ex-senator who served as Reagan’s chief of staff from 1987 to 1988, agrees with the parallels to Ron-Yasu. “There are a handful of ‘special relationships,'” he says. “Clearly the Bush-Koizumi relationship is one of them.”
Clearly indeed. Koizumi likes to brag they’re on a first-name basis: “George” and “Jun.” On a personal level, the two may seem an odd couple. Koizumi, 62, is a divorced bachelor who vows he’ll never remarry. He’s known for his spiffy clothes, flowing movie-star hair, and magnetic élan. Oh, and he loves heavy metal music, and three years ago released a CD collection of his favorite Elvis Presley tunes. (He shares a birthday with the King, January 8.) In August 2003, the PM sang an Elvis duet with actor Tom Cruise, who was in Tokyo for the premiere of The Last Samurai. Stack all that next to the Bush persona–family man, evangelical Christian, rugged Texan, Hollywood bête noire–and you have an unusual pairing.
But politically, “George-Jun” is a natural fit. Koizumi backers in Japan often compare their man to President Reagan and Lady Thatcher. That may be a stretch. Yet by any standard, Koizumi is a conservative. He’s pro-military, pro-business, pro-free trade, anti-regulation, and “diehard pro-American” (as he once put it). He supports a robust foreign policy. Like Bush, he is also an ambitious reformer. He hopes to privatize Japan’s postal service. He’s tried to revamp its banking and pension systems. And, much to Chinese and North Korean ire, Koizumi wants to amend Japan’s pacifist constitution.
Until recently, talk of constitutional revision was strictly taboo. Article 9 of Japan’s 1947 constitution renounces the “use of force as means of settling international disputes,” and bars Tokyo from keeping “land, sea, and air forces.” The Self-Defense Forces (SDF) function as Japan’s de facto military. Following a 1992 law change, which enabled the SDF to go abroad under tightly drawn conditions, Japan sent peacekeepers to Cambodia, Mozambique, Kenya/Rwanda, the Golan Heights, and East Timor. Koizumi now seeks to formally legitimize the SDF in the constitution. Last week, his ruling coalition approved a new national defense outline. Among other things, it eases self-imposed limits on arms exports, calls for deployment of missile defense, and gives the SDF greater flexibility to venture overseas.
This fits within Koizumi’s broader strategy of making Japan a global player. To that end, the prime minister is willing to take risks–as he did in Afghanistan and Iraq. After 9/11, he pushed through an antiterror law that allowed Japan to give logistical and noncombat aid to Operation Enduring Freedom. Tokyo dispatched a flotilla of SDF naval vessels to the Indian Ocean, which mainly provided refueling assistance to allied forces. Then last winter, in his most controversial move, Koizumi sent more than 500 troops to help rebuild Iraq. “The U.S. is Japan’s only ally,” he declared. “Japan must also be a trustworthy ally to the U.S.” For the past year, the SDF has done humanitarian work in the relatively quiet southern city of Samawa, under the protection of Dutch soldiers. Koizumi faced a major test in April, when, in two separate incidents, insurgents took five Japanese civilians hostage and demanded Tokyo withdraw all its troops. Koizumi didn’t flinch, and the five hostages were soon released.
Another test came in late October. Insurgents kidnapped a Japanese tourist in Iraq and threatened to behead him if Tokyo didn’t pull out within 48 hours. Koizumi refused to “bow to terrorism.” Even after the captive, 24-year-old Shosei Koda, was brutally killed, a Kyodo News poll found that over 58 percent of Japanese approved of Koizumi’s handling of the crisis. However, some 63 percent felt the SDF’s Iraq mission should not be extended past its mid-December deadline. Thus, with his choice to prolong that mission, Koizumi bucked public opinion.
Naturally, many of Koizumi’s domestic opponents say he is too pro-Bush. In October, they chided him for publicly favoring Bush’s reelection. They claim the U.S.-Japan alliance is now a one-way street. These charges, if understandable, aren’t wholly fair. Japan desires a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council. Bush supports that goal, and his blessing is crucial. In addition, on most issues Bush and Koizumi find their interests in relative harmony. On North Korea, both endorse a hard-line approach to Kim Jong Il and promote the six-party talks, though Koizumi faces the extra concern of accounting for Japanese abductees. Likewise, both are wary of China’s missile buildup along the Taiwan Straits.
Or take missile defense. Tokyo plans to develop it jointly with the United States. “We are going to deploy missile defense in a few years’ time,” affirms a high-ranking Japanese embassy official. Only three countries are so committed: Japan, the United States, and Israel. The roots of U.S.-Japan dialogue on antimissile technology trace back to the 1980s, but North Korea’s avowal of an active nuclear program in October 2002 triggered a renewed push by Tokyo to build a system.
To be sure, snafus could always arise in U.S.-Japan relations. For one thing, the Liberal Democratic party (LDP), which has ruled Japan virtually without pause since 1955, fared poorly in upper-house elections last July. And the pacifist, Buddhist-backed New Komeito party, the LDP’s coalition partner, may not go for Koizumi’s military reforms or constitutional change. It’s possible, though not likely, that New Komeito could defect and join with the opposition Democratic party of Japan. As of now, Koizumi’s term ends in September 2006. He has pledged not to seek another.
Also, Ambassador Baker and Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage–Bush’s point men on Japan diplomacy–will leave their posts early next year. According to news leaks, Bush will tap Tom Schieffer, a Texas friend, for the ambassador’s job. But some say Schieffer, now U.S. ambassador to Australia, lacks the proper background with Tokyo. Other potential monkey wrenches in U.S.-Japan affairs include fresh trouble in North Korea, mounting violence in Iraq, a breakdown of Japan-China ties, and tension over U.S. bases on Okinawa.
A final note about President Bush and Japan. Bush regularly cites the “transformational power of liberty” as the north star of his foreign policy. By planting the institutions of freedom, he argues, America can convert autocratic societies into friendly democracies. The experience of postwar Japan is a prime demonstration of this theory. Bush knows it. Indeed, the Japanese example became a staple of his stump speeches in the 2004 campaign. Not so long ago, Bush would say, Japan was our enemy. My dad fought the Japanese in World War II. But after the war, Harry Truman believed liberty could turn an enemy into an ally. It worked in Japan–and it will in Iraq. And someday, an American president will meet with a democratic Iraqi leader the way I now meet with Prime Minister Koizumi.
Bush knows this spiel by heart. He gave an off-the-cuff rendition of it at his November 12 press conference with Britain’s Tony Blair. More than any personal chemistry between leaders, it is this historical link between nations that explains the president’s emphasis on the George-Jun alliance: Bush considers Japan a living rebuke to critics of his pro-democracy strategy in the Middle East.
Duncan Currie is an editorial assistant at The Weekly Standard.
