BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, the former Israeli prime minister, insists President Bush is the best friend Israel ever had in the White House. And in case anyone thought he’d foolishly gotten carried away the first time he said it–while addressing the pro-Israel rally on the Capitol grounds–he repeated it at a gathering in Washington of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, and yet again on television. And why not? Bush calls Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon a “man of peace,” says he won’t allow Israel to be “crushed,” and seems to have Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat pegged as a menace to civilization. Nor does the president use code words for moral equivalence between Israel and the Palestinians like “cycle of violence” or euphemisms for American pressure on Israel such as “engagement.” So not surprisingly, Bush “has gained a great deal of support in the Jewish community,” says Malcolm Hoenlein, executive director of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations. That’s putting it mildly. No Republican president in the past half century has been this popular among Jews. And that includes Ronald Reagan, who got 39 percent of the Jewish vote in 1980, and Dwight Eisenhower, who won 40 percent in 1952. The surge of pro-Bush sentiment has thrilled Jewish Republicans to the point of giddiness. Pollster Frank Luntz says, “This is the first time in my lifetime that it’s okay to be a Republican in the synagogue.” Matt Brooks, executive director of the Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC), says it may no longer be true that Jews live like Episcopalians but vote like Puerto Ricans. Brooks believes that since September 11–all the more since Palestinian suicide bombers provoked an Israeli military invasion of the West Bank on March 29–the Jewish community is undergoing “a fundamental shift towards the Republican party.” There’s a ton of anecdotal evidence of Bush’s popularity among Jews. For example, the head of B’nai B’rith International, Richard D. Heideman, told Tom Edsall of the Washington Post he’s always been a Democrat but expects to vote for Bush in 2004. The problem is there’s no hard data to confirm either a rush of Jews to Bush or a Jewish political realignment. There hasn’t been a national election to test either notion. The RJC took a poll last November that showed Bush beating Al Gore, 42 percent to 39 percent, if the presidential race were re-run. But only 17 percent of Jewish voters in that poll identified themselves as Republicans (54 percent were Democrats). What’s driving Jews to Bush and the GOP, Brooks argues, is “the political equivalent of the perfect storm” since September 11. Bush has emerged as the lone defender of Israel among major world leaders. Meanwhile, Democratic tardiness in defending Israel has drawn a stark contrast with noisy backing by Republicans and conservatives of Israel’s foray into the West Bank. “Did you ever think there’d come a time when Tom DeLay was more pro-Israel than the average rabbi in the average synagogue?” says Luntz. Also, Jewish apprehension about the Christian Right has been trumped by the alliance of religious conservatives and Jews in support of Israel. Two evangelical Christians, Gary Bauer and Janet Parshall, spoke at the pro-Israel rally. And the social issues that cause many Jews to vote Democratic–abortion, guns, school prayer–are dormant at the moment. All this gives Republicans a political opening, but no more than that. Any Jewish drift to Bush and the GOP, says the leader of a national Jewish organization, is “a work in progress. A door’s been opened. People are willing to look at Republicans in a way they haven’t in a generation.” The possibility of Republican gains is not a new phenomenon. Twice before, in 1980 and 1988, there were false starts. Democratic presidential candidates normally get 65 percent to 80 percent of the Jewish vote. But Reagan held Jimmy Carter to 45 percent in 1980 (John Anderson won 15 percent), raising the prospect of a Jewish realignment. In 1984, Reagan dipped to 31 percent as the rise of the Christian Right chilled Jewish voters. Then George H.W. Bush won a surprising 35 percent of the Jewish electorate in 1988, but this fell to 11 percent four years later after Bush turned against the Israeli government. Bob Dole won 16 percent in 1996, Bush 19 percent in 2000. Twice thwarted, a Jewish realignment is not a big worry of Democrats. Nonetheless, Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle overrode White House objections and pushed a mildly pro-Israel resolution through the Senate last week. Democratic strategists concede Bush should do better in 2004, but they believe support for Israel won’t help many Republicans in congressional races. For one thing, there won’t be many cases–maybe none–in which a pro-Israel Republican is running against an anti-Israel Democrat in a state or district with a significant Jewish vote. For another, Democrats will make sure social issues like abortion are played up. Jewish women are perhaps the most ardently pro-choice of any voting group. The worst-case scenario for Democrats in 2004? The Mideast and the war on terrorism are the dominant issues and Israel-hating Al Sharpton is a major player in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. That’s a formula for the party’s presidential nominee to get less than 50 percent of the Jewish vote. As eager as the Bush White House is to expand the Republican base, it’s done little to woo Jewish voters. Leaders of Jewish organizations were invited to a White House screening in 2001 of “Varian’s War,” a movie directed by Bush supporter Lionel Chetwynd about the escape of Jewish intellectuals from France during World War II. But that’s about it: no Bush appearance before a large Jewish gathering, no series of speeches by administration officials to Jewish groups around the country. This is partly out of fear of being accused of pandering, though Bush’s support for Israel appears heartfelt. And it’s partly because Jews are only 4 percent of the national vote. Even a strong shift in 2004 probably wouldn’t be pivotal in Bush’s reelection, except perhaps in Florida. In 2000, Bush strategists were more interested in attracting the Arab-American vote, and they still seem to be. Nothing is guaranteed in politics, least of all a substantial Jewish vote for Bush in 2004. His hold on Jewish voters is fragile. If the president were to turn sharply in his Middle East policy and exert prolonged pressure on Israel for concessions to Yasser Arafat and the Palestinians, he’d suffer the fate of his father. And now that he’s caught up in peace negotiations, nearly everyone–the media, Europeans, Arab leaders, his own secretary of state, Colin Powell–will demand that he do exactly that. It will take a strong man, with a genuine love for Israel as a democracy and strategic ally, to resist. Fred Barnes is executive editor of The Weekly Standard.
