On Saturday morning, ESPN College GameDay host Rece Davis speculated about which conferences might not get a team into the College Football Playoff (CFP), saying, “I think the Big Ten is in a little bit of trouble if they don’t have an undefeated champion, or even if Wisconsin is the undefeated champion.” Hours later, Ohio State’s 1-point, come-from-behind win in the Horseshoe over previously unbeaten Penn State ensured exactly that: The Big Ten won’t have an undefeated champion not named Wisconsin.
But is the Big Ten really in danger of not getting a team into the playoff, even if the eventual Big Ten champion wins out from here? Not at all.
In truth, this statement by the usually reliable Davis is part of a phenomenon that’s as predictable at this point in the college football season as the turning of the leaves: commentators grossly underestimating the likelihood that the top teams will lose going forward, and therefore badly overestimating the credentials teams will need in order to be invited onto the sport’s biggest stage.
The usual pattern is that, as October gives way to November, highly ranked teams start falling like dominoes. There were 5 unbeaten teams at this point last season, but by the end of the regular season only 2 remained. Two years ago, there were 11 unbeaten teams at this point, but by the end of the regular season only 1 remained. The year before that, there were 3 unbeaten teams at this point but only 1 by the end of the regular season. So of the 19 teams that have been unbeaten at this point over the past three seasons, only 4 of them—that’s 21 percent—have finished the regular season unblemished.
As of right now there are five unbeaten teams remaining. The most likely scenario is that by the time the conference championship games conclude around the stroke of midnight that welcomes in December 3, only one of those five teams will remain perfect.
As for one-loss teams: in each of the past three years there have been between three and five such teams at the end of the regular season from the power-5 conferences (the Pac-12, Big Ten, SEC, ACC, and Big 12).
In short, any undefeated team from a power-5 conference is going to make the playoff. Since 1998, the number of undefeated teams at the end of the regular season from what we now call power-5 conferences was 2 or less in 18 of the 19 seasons. Every one of those teams made the championship game in the BCS era or the playoff in the CFP era, except for Auburn in 2004.
Meanwhile, 1-loss teams from power-5 conferences, and undefeated teams that aren’t from power-5-conferences (but play respectable schedules), have a good shot of making the playoff. Potentially, a very highly regarded 2-loss team can sneak in.
With all of this in mind, let’s look at the 17 teams still vying for the national championship (the rankings shown are from the Anderson & Hester Rankings, which I co-created and which were part of the BCS throughout its 16-year run), presented by conference:
Big Ten (the #1 conference in the Anderson & Hester Rankings): #4 Wisconsin, #6 Penn State, #9 Ohio State, and #16 Michigan State
If undefeated Wisconsin wins out, the odds of the Badgers making the playoff are better than the odds of the Astros or Dodgers hitting another home run with the slick, juiced baseball they seem to be playing with in this year’s World Series. There is no mathematical way that more than four teams can finish this college football season undefeated, and there is no plausible way that an undefeated Big Ten champion isn’t going to get a playoff invitation.
Ohio State would almost surely also make the playoff by winning out (at Wisconsin’s expense), at which point the Buckeyes would (in this scenario) have posted 11 wins in a row.
Penn State’s best bet is to win out, have Ohio State lose before the Big Ten championship game but beat Wisconsin in that game—and then hope that the subjective, 13-member College Football Playoff Selection Committee follows last year’s precedent in saying that a 1-loss non-champion is preferable to a 2-loss champion of a conference. If the committee reverses field and instead takes the 2-loss champion this time, it will give the appearance of deciding that all Penn State-Ohio State tiebreakers are determined on the basis of which team wears scarlet and gray.
Michigan State is probably the biggest long-shot of the 17 teams still alive to make the playoffs. But if the Spartans were to finish the season by beating Penn State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin (and winning the Big Ten in the process), they would surely get a long look despite their two losses.
Southeastern (the #2 conference): #1 Georgia, #3 Alabama, and #30 Auburn
If Georgia and Alabama play in the SEC Championship Game, the winner will be invited to the playoff—even with a loss.
Auburn, meanwhile, isn’t anywhere near playoff consideration at this point. But imagine if the 2-loss Tigers were to beat Georgia, then Alabama two weeks later, then Georgia again to claim the SEC title. The Tigers would probably make the field, which means that at this point they seem to control their own destiny.
Atlantic Coast: #7 Miami, #8 Clemson, and #19 Virginia Tech
An undefeated Miami would make the playoff field, a 1-loss Clemson would likely make it, and a 1-loss Virginia Tech could possibly make it.
Pac-12: #14 Washington and #22 Stanford
If the Huskies finish with just one loss and have victories over Stanford, Washington State, and the Pac-12 South winner (likely USC or Arizona), they should feel good about their chances of making the playoff field.
Stanford already has two losses versus a pretty tough schedule. But if the Cardinal, featuring Heisman-candidate running back Bryce Love, finishes with consecutive wins over Washington State, Washington, Cal, Notre Dame, and the Pac-12 South winner—giving them (in this scenario) ten consecutive wins overall—they could very well secure one of the four playoff spots in the process.
Big 12: #12 TCU, #13 Oklahoma, and #15 Oklahoma State
Each of these three teams has a loss and a couple of formidable foes ahead, but a 1-loss Big 12 champion—especially one with a win at Ohio State (in Oklahoma’s case)—would be a strong contender to make the field of four.
American Athletic: #2 UCF
The Knights, who won the Fiesta Bowl four seasons ago and finished in the national top-10, are unbeaten to date against an above-average schedule, having won all seven games by double-digits. What’s more, they play in a conference that has been almost as strong as the Big 12 so far in non-conference play. If they go 12-0, they’d be hard to overlook.
Independent: #5 Notre Dame
Also on GameDay, Kirk Herbstreit said, “If Notre Dame is 11-1, they are in the playoff.” That assessment is on the money. The Irish, losers only to Georgia (20-19), have played the nation’s 6th-toughest schedule to date, have pounded Michigan State, USC, and North Carolina State, and will play at Miami and at Stanford before the season is through. If the Irish win out, they’re in.
Needless to say, there’s a lot of football left to be played. Indeed, the 17 viable playoff contenders have 10 games remaining against each other, not even counting conference championship games.
With the exception of Georgia and Alabama, all of these teams have one thing in common: In their quest to make the playoff field, they almost certainly can’t survive another loss.
Anderson is co-creator of the Anderson & Hester College Football Computer Rankings.
