NOW THAT REPUBLICAN VOTERS have said rather emphatically that they want Bob Dole to be their party ‘s nominee, what does the race for the White House look like ? Much is bound to happen between now and November 5 to shape the election. Still, we already know enough to declare a favorite.
A year ago, much of the political community saw the president in deep trouble and a likely loser. Now, it ‘s the Republicans who are thought to be struggling. Every poll shows Clinton besting Dole. Margins vary, but in some recent polls they are large — 17 points in the ABC News/Washington Post survey of March 8-10. Other data, however, point in the opposite direction, and when the whole range of findings is considered, Clinton ‘s electoral prospects have not significantly improved. Despite surface appearances, Dole should be considered the favorite to win the presidency.
I noted in these pages in December that early poll trial heats are simply not to be taken seriously as predictors. The latest findings come during a primary season in which competing Republicans have been beating up on one another, while the president has had a free ride. But the contest is about to enter its second round, where the matchup is Dole vs. Clinton. Lots of evidence from past elections shows how ephemeral trial-heat findings can be, right up to the last six weeks of the campaign. In 1980, an early January Gallup survey had Jimmy Carter leading Ronald Reagan by roughly two to one, and a Harris survey by even more than that. In 1988, a late July Gallup poll put Michael Dukakis ahead of George Bush by 17 percentage points. And in 1992, an end-of-March Gallup survey showed Bush leading Clinton by 18 points. I’m not finding fault with Gallup — other organizations got much the same results. It ‘s just hard to measure a decision before most voters have made up their minds.
What is possible at this stage of a campaign, however, is to explore the election ‘s underlying structure. Whenever an incumbent president is seeking reelection, his standing with voters is critical. The comparative standing of the major parties is another key. And voters “preferences as to policy direction are a third.
Bill Clinton ‘s approval ratings have been relatively low throughout his presidency. In Gallup polls taken from January 1993 through February 1996, an average of 48 percent of adult Americans said they approved of his handling of the presidency. This puts him among the least popular of modern presidents, together with Nixon (48 percent composite approval score), Carter (47 percent), Ford (47 percent), and Truman (42 percent). What ‘s more, Clinton’s ratings are remarkably unvarying. His ratings in individual surveys deviate from his average less than those of any other modern president. Since January 1995, for example, Clinton ‘s lowest approval percentage in a Gallup survey has been 44, his highest 53. At best, he has been unable to raise his support more than a few points above 50 percent.
Other measures show him even weaker. For example, only once in eight soundings since January 1994 has the NBC News/iVall Street Journal poll found a plurality saying that Clinton deserves reelec- tion. Most recently, in mid- January 1996, 41 percent thought he merited reelection, 49 percent that he did not. The character issue has dogged Clinton throughout his presidency. In mid-January, Gallup found just 34 percent saying that the phrase “keeps his promises “applied to Bill Clinton; 61 percent said it didn ‘t apply. Similarly, only 40 percent thought “honest and trustworthy “fit him, and 44 percent thought “shares your values” described him. In a CBS News/New York Times poll taken in mid-January, only 34 percent agreed that Clinton “says what he really believes most of the time,” while 59 percent selected the alternative “he says what he thinks most people want to hear.” No modern president other than Richard Nixon has ranked lower in honesty and trust.
Turning to the parties “comparative standing, the downward blip in Republican approval many survey organizations recorded at the end of 1995 has now largely dissipated. Overall, the GOP ‘s position looks significantly stronger today than it did during the 1980s and early 1990s. We see this in the generic congressional vote question, Which party ‘s candidate would you be inclined to back in your congressional district? Despite the Republicans ” success in presidential elections in the 1980s, Democrats routinely enjoyed a large lead on the congressional vote question-averaging 15 points in Gallup surveys. Just before the 1994 vote, however, Gallup found the Republicans pulling into a dead heat with the Democrats: Forty-six percent on November 2- 6 said they would vote Republican, 46 percent Democratic. In fact, Republican House candidates got 53.4 percent of the two-party popular vote in House races. Subsequent polls show no falling off in Republican strength. In late February of this year, 48 percent said they would vote Democratic (Gallup survey ), 46 percent Republican. A March 8-10 ABC/Post poll showed the Democrats favored by a larger margin — 8 percentage points — but this poll is an outlier, and there is reason to discount it. In late October 1994, just days before the Republicans won the House vote by a 7-point margin, an ABC/Post poll recorded a 7-point Democratic edge.
Finally, and perhaps most important, the realignment of public sentiment that has been occurring since the 1970s on role-of-government questions shows no sign of reversal. When CBS News and the New York Times asked in their late- February 1996 survey, Would you “rather have a smaller government providing fewer services, or a bigger government providing more services,” by two to one (61-30 percent ) the public said less government. Back in April 1976, just 40 percent chose less government. The CBS/Times survey also asked respondents whether they thought that “government should do more to solve national problems” or that “government is doing too many things better left to business and individuals. ” The latter position was picked by roughly two- thirds (60-32 percent). Americans aren’t “anti-government,” but when asked, they say they want government slimmed down and power devolved from Washington to the states.
Bill Clinton now recognizes that the country ‘s philosophic drift is counter to the predominant stance of his party, and he has struggled with considerable skill to accommodate the prevailing national views at least rhetorically. Still, limiting government’s reach is the Republicans’ agenda, not the Democ- rats’.
The GOP may yet muff the opportunity it has been given.
We don ‘t know for sure how soon-to-be presidential nominee Dole will fare down the campaign stretch. A third party or independent candidacy also could siphon off anti-Clinton votes, aiding the president ‘s reelection –, much as Ross Perot ensured his 1992 election. Even with these caveats, however, the structure of this year’s presidential contest favors the Republicans.
Everett Carll Ladd is director of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.
