JOHN MCCAIN needs Republican voters. His ability to attract independents and Democrats produced smashing victories over George W. Bush in New Hampshire and Michigan. But now he faces primaries in which either crossover voters are not allowed or there’s a competing Democratic primary likely to draw away many independents and Democrats. So McCain must appeal to core Republican voters. It won’t be easy. He’s succeeded in the GOP presidential race so far by not sounding or acting like a regular Republican. Now McCain’s maverick ways are a liability rather than an asset. And it’s his un-Republican style, far more than his stands on issues, that has infuriated many GOP voters.
The conventional wisdom is that McCain must only toughen his fuzzier positions, such as his opposition to abortion, and emphasize his conservative stands on others like missile defense, gay rights, and partial privatization of Social Security. But this won’t be sufficient. Nor is McCain’s insistence he’s “a proud Reagan Republican” likely to appease conservatives. Their opposition to McCain isn’t ideological. It’s visceral. And this explains why they preferred Bush, who’s only slightly more conservative than McCain, by roughly two to one in the early primaries.
Part of McCain’s problem with Republicans is the way he has wooed independents and Democrats. He claims he’s doing what Reagan did in attracting the Reagan Democrats. In truth, McCain’s outreach is different and was bound to irritate many Republicans. Reagan’s message was that conservative Democrats and independents shared his views and those of the GOP, and should come on board. McCain’s pitch is to moderate and liberal independents and Democrats. His message is that he doesn’t share the views of the Republican establishment and they should join him in taking over the party.
To make matters worse, McCain uses Democratic arguments against Republicans, or at least against Bush. He and his aides attack Bush’s tax cut as favoring the rich, a tack GOP leaders often condemn as Democratic class warfare. “Sixty percent of the benefits from Bush’s tax cuts go to the wealthiest 10 percent of Americans,” McCain said in January. “I’m not giving tax cuts for the rich.” Rick Davis, McCain’s campaign manager, declared on Fox News Sunday on February 20 that Bush “gives a lot of money to the rich in tax cuts.” Davis was challenged on whether this money was really being “given” or whether people were being allowed to keep more of their own money. He conceded it was “the people’s money.”
Another McCain talking point usually associated with Democrats is the flogging of religious conservatives. The McCain campaign has singled out both Bob Jones University, where Bush spoke in the run-up to the South Carolina primary, and TV evangelists Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell. McCain staffers made phone calls before the Michigan primary linking Bush to the anti-Catholic views of Bob Jones II, the university’s former president. McCain has criticized Robertson and Falwell, both Bush backers, for trafficking in “hate stuff.”
Then there are the pro-lifers whom McCain has antagonized. Except on fetal tissue research, McCain has routinely supported the pro-life position during 17 years in Congress. But he’s made statements as a candidate that leaders of the anti-abortion movement have attacked. Last August, he said he wouldn’t support overturning Roe v. Wade “in the short term or even in the long term.” McCain later said he “misspoke” and now says he wants the 1973 high court ruling that legalized abortion reversed. Doug Johnson of the National Right to Life Committee, however, says McCain couldn’t have just expressed himself awkwardly because he offered a rationale for preserving Roe v. Wade. McCain said overturning it would “force X number of women to [have] illegal and dangerous operations,” a line of reasoning invoked by pro-choicers. NRLC, which opposes McCain’s campaign finance bill, has endorsed Bush.
In fact, the whole thrust of his campaign may hinder McCain in wooing Republican voters. He says the Republican leadership in Congress, along with the rest of Washington, has been captured by special interests. Many GOP voters are critical of congressional Republicans, but not for this reason. They are angry with Republicans on Capitol Hill for not being conservative enough. In any case, McCain’s indictment of Washington is hardly a reprise of Reagan’s. Reagan concentrated his attacks on bureaucrats and Democrats, then in control of the House and Senate.
All this — the Democratic arguments, the zinging of Republicans — leaves McCain in a difficult position. Even if he wins the nomination, he’ll probably have done so with a minority of GOP votes. Just as he’s having trouble winning over Republicans now, he’ll find it hard to unite the party then. And no presidential candidate wins if his party’s base is alienated.
Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD.
