A Fox News poll released on Monday shows Democratic Senate candidate Doug Jones ahead of Republican Roy Moore by 10 points. That’s different from what other polls are showing—the RealClearPolitics average has Moore up by 2.5 points, with polls ranging from Fox’s 10-point lead for Jones to a 9-point lead for Moore according to Emerson.
So is Jones going to win by double digits tomorrow? We don’t yet know.
As I and others have explained, the Alabama Senate special election is hard to poll. Nobody knows exactly who is going to show up to a special Senate election in Alabama with a scandal-ridden Republican candidate. Mark Blumenthal of SurveyMonkey demonstrated this uncertainty by showing that differing estimates of the composition of the electorate led to results ranging from an 8-point lead for Jones to a 9-point margin in Moore’s favor.
When there’s this much uncertainty in exactly where polls are collectively, it’s sometimes instructive to look at how individual polls have moved over time to see which candidate is losing or gaining ground. Fox News had the race tied in October (after Jones and Moore had won their respective primaries), and after the Washington Post published credible allegations that Moore had improper sexual contact with teenage girls while he was in his 30s, Fox News showed Jones ahead by 8 points. Some polls have shown a rebound for Moore after Thanksgiving, but this poll shows a small shift towards Jones since then.
It’s impossible to tell based just on one poll whether Jones or Moore will win or even which candidate is losing or gaining steam. But Fox News has a strong record in public polling, and this solid result for Jones reinforces the view that this race is truly a toss-up.
