I‘M DEAD SERIOUS ABOUT THIS,” says Republican senator John McCain of his threat to attach sweeping campaign-finance reform to nonbudget bills that come to the Senate floor. In the afterglow of the bipartisan balanced-budget agreement, McCain is promising disruption. If he makes good on his threat, he will drag the Senate into trench warfare for the next few months.
Do Senate Republicans — nearly all of whom oppose McCain’s campaign- finance plan — have the stomach to block him even if it takes a filibuster? ” Proudly,” says Mitch McConnell, the GOP’s strongest voice against McCain- style reform. McConnell believes there’s too little money in America’s political campaigns, and he’s certain many of McCain’s proposals — such as placing limits on the political advocacy of interest groups — are unconstitutional.
But even McConnell’s less diehard colleagues seem inclined to hold their ground. He told me, “There’s considerably less queasiness about this issue than I’ve ever seen.” Though most Senate Republicans would rather not have to fight about campaign finance for the rest of the year, they don’t care much for McCain’s proposal and are prepared to do what’s necessary to block its passage.
A useful weathervane is Al D’Amato of New York, engaged in an uphill race for reelection and well known for grabbing any issue he thinks will win him votes. If he thought campaign reform would help him next year, he would be front-and-center with his own proposal. But he is skeptical about the bill McCain has introduced. He doesn’t expect it to pass and doesn’t believe Republicans will be punished for their obstinacy. Another who might be expected to clamor for reform is Paul Coverdell of Georgia, a Republican who was narrowly elected in 1992 and could face a stiff challenge next year. But he dismisses McCain’s proposal as unconstitutional and says “this is not something that’s on everyone’s mind.”
If Coverdell, D’Amato, or any other Republicans get weak-kneed, McConnell will be there with reams of polling data and political experience to steer them back to the reservation. A recent Fox News poll, for example, found that Republicans have a 36-24 edge over Democrats when people are asked which party is “better” on campaign-finance reform. Asked about a potential backlash if the GOP appears to be blocking reform, McConnell notes that the last time Republicans filibustered on campaign finance was five weeks before the 1994 elections. The backlash didn’t materialize then, and McConnell thinks it won’t now.
McConnell would seem to have a formidable foe in McCain, a cheerful, nationally recognized Republican best known for his five years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. So why have only two other Senate Republicans — Fred Thompson of Tennessee and Susan Collins of Maine — signed on to McCain’s effort? The biggest problem is that most Republicans believe the bill is dreadful and violates the First Amendment. And there are other difficulties. Thompson’s hearings on political fund-raising are starting to pay some dividends — i.e., Al Gore’s trouble with the Buddhist temple — and some Republicans believe they’re better off keeping the focus there rather than getting bogged down with new legislation this year. Says a top GOP aide, “We need to remember that this is [the Democrats’] problem, not ours.”
Another challenge for McCain is McConnell. In addition to leading the opposition to restrictions on campaign spending, McConnell chairs the Senate Republican campaign committee, which distributes millions of dollars to Republican candidates. That creates a powerful incentive for senators not to cross him. Whether McConnell would curtail contributions to an ideologically unfriendly candidate remains unknown. But he’s been decidedly cool toward Senate candidate Linda Smith, a House Republican and zealous advocate of McCain-style campaign-finance reform.
A third factor stifling prospects for reform is McCain’s reputation as a grandstander. His scrappiness and his disavowal of order, discipline, and hierarchy would go over well in the House, but in the more genteel Senate such behavior is seen as self-indulgent, adding to his colleagues’ dislike of his distinctly unRepublican proposal.
A final obstacle for McCain is that particular provisions of his bill stir strong feelings among various members of both parties, infinitely complicating compromise. The bill’s treatment of political contributions from compulsory union dues is one example. Senate Republican leader Trent Lott and his Democratic counterpart Tom Daschle have espoused opposite views on this and declared them non-negotiable.
McCain’s cosponsor, Democrat Russ Feingold, says he’s finding support for the proposal “gradually” increasing, with “a sense among Democrats that this may become reality.” For now, though, McCain and Feingold lack the 60 votes needed to stop the inevitable filibuster of their proposal. It took Watergate to generate the last campaign-finance reform, and the McCain bill still looks destined for the failure that has met every subsequent effort in the past 21 years.
Matthew Rees is a staff writer for THE WEEKLY STANDARD.
