Whither the Jessecrats?

This year, Bowles is again the Democratic nominee for Senate. A poll taken in mid-September found him up 10 points on his rival, five-term Republican congressman Richard Burr, but the race is now a dead heat. Both sides believe that Jessecrats are still the vital swing bloc. Whoever wins their support will likely clinch the election.

“We’re campaigning for those voters very hard,” says Burr spokesman Doug Heye. Indeed, Burr scheduled a rally in Goldsboro–prime Jessecrat turf–with Helms himself on October 16. The Bowles camp is making similar bids. “We are definitely trying to reach out to them as best we can,” says Bowles spokesman Carlos Monje.

Jessecrats for the most part are white, low–to middle–income voters living in rural or semi-rural eastern North Carolina. They are culturally conservative, temperamentally populist, and politically moderate. Their ranks consist largely of men, though this is changing. The Jessecrats who turned out for Dole in 2002 were a broader faction than usual.

“We’re not really talking about the old-school Jessecrats,” says John Hood of the Raleigh-based John Locke Foundation. “Jessecrats were thought to be middle-aged or older, male, with red necks, eatin’ barbecue.” The “Elizabeth Dole Democrats,” Hood notes, include these fellows, but also many women. The demographic has become “more female” and “somewhat less hard-edged. But nevertheless, it’s the kind of electorate for whom Bill Clinton is a polarizing figure.”

The ex-president has, indeed, emerged as a campaign factor. Bowles served as Clinton’s chief of staff–a fact Burr hammers home to Tar Heel voters. Why bring up Clinton? First, to connect Bowles with Clinton’s record on a bevy of issues such as health care and taxes. Second, to link him with Clinton’s probity (or lack thereof).

“Clinton is not a popular figure in the state,” says GOP pollster Frank Luntz. “There was ‘Clinton fatigue’ in North Carolina that was greater than [in] other states.” He’s certainly unpopular among Jessecrats. In a pair of TV ads now airing, Burr ties Bowles to Clinton on defense spending and trade.

Trade is a dominant theme in North Carolina and has acute resonance with Jessecrats. Many work in old manufacturing industries, such as textiles and furniture. They have borne the brunt of plant closings and layoffs, with jobs being shipped overseas. “Those people don’t want to hear about free trade,” says North Carolina State University political economist Roland Stephen. “And they are going to punish candidates who are associated with free trade.”

Burr and Bowles, as it happens, are both known as free traders. Each backed NAFTA in 1994. Now they’re both hedging. Bowles says he won’t support new free-trade pacts until existing ones are enforced. Burr admits NAFTA may have hurt North Carolinians.

But Burr has an ace in the hole–China. For Jessecrats, China is the very emblem of free trade gone awry. As Hood puts it, “China is the bugaboo.” In Congress, Burr voted eight times against favored trading status for Beijing. He also worked to block illegal importation of Chinese textiles. During those same years, Bowles endorsed China trade. A new Burr TV ad claims Bowles was in fact “Clinton’s chief negotiator” on U.S.-China deals, though the Bowles camp denies this.

An issue peculiar to North Carolina is the $10.1 billion buyout for tobacco farmers included in the corporate tax bill Congress passed earlier this month. This measure, first pushed in the House, has enormous salience for tobacco-growing Jessecrats. “The buyout is a feather in Burr’s cap,” says Rob Christensen, a political reporter for the Raleigh News and Observer. Iraq is a non-issue, since both candidates were pro-war. Terrorism and taxes have gotten some play. So has health care. The first two help Burr; the latter Bowles.

Socially, one topic trumps all: gay marriage. Burr opposes it, and was a cosponsor of the Federal Marriage Amendment in the House. But he is no vocal culture warrior. He rarely discusses gay marriage on the stump. Bowles is anti-gay marriage but would vote for a constitutional amendment only “as a last resort,” according to a spokesman. Burr has run radio ads on gay marriage in the eastern part of the state. They appear to have given him a boost.

Then there’s the coattail factor. Mike Easley, the state’s popular Democratic governor, is cruising to reelection. This will help Bowles. As the Democratic VP nominee, North Carolina senator John Edwards, whose seat is being contested, could help Bowles. But “Bowles is trying to put as much distance between himself and the national [Democratic] ticket as possible,” says Christensen. He styles himself an independent, “centrist” Democrat. And George W. Bush? “I think Bush helps Burr more than Edwards helps Bowles,” says Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon polling. Bush won North Carolina by 13 points in 2000. He’ll carry it again, if not by as much.

North Carolina is typically a late-decider. Thus the Burr strategy: His campaign held back until after Labor Day, then unleashed a torrent of ads. And they’ve been effective. After trailing for months, Burr has now pulled even. A Rasmussen poll from early October puts Burr in the lead by two points, while a SurveyUSA poll has Bowles leading by one. A Mason-Dixon poll shows Bowles’s negatives up and positives down. Burr’s negatives are up too, but his positives have jumped by 14 points since July.

Frank Luntz cites Burr’s charisma. A former Wake Forest football star, Burr is attractive and well-spoken. “He is the definition of someone who takes lemons and turns them into lemonade,” Luntz says. “He is one of the best five communicators that the Republicans have in Washington.” But Bowles has better name recognition–his father, Hargrove “Skipper” Bowles, was a state legislator–and experience running statewide.

It may come down to the Jessecrats one more time. Though North Carolina is a solid “red” state in presidential voting, its Democrats lead Republicans in voter registration by 13 points. “Burr’s making some inroads,” says Mason-Dixon’s Coker. “He’s getting 17 percent of the Democratic vote.” Will that be enough? Coker is doubtful. Burr “is pulling off some of the Jessecrats,” he says, “but I think he’ll still need to pull more of them to win.”

Duncan Currie is an editorial assistant at The Weekly Standard.