TOM EDSALL OF THE Washington Post has picked eight House districts in the Ohio River Valley — some open seats and some held by embattled incumbents, in Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio — as bellwethers in the 1998 election. These are “ground zero in the battle for control of the House,” says Edsall. Ron Brownstein of the Los Angeles Times is playing up a dozen House Democratic candidates who happen to be social conservatives. Should some capture Republican seats, the thinking goes, then it’ll be a favorable cycle for Democrats. Both the Edsall and Brownstein yardsticks are good ones, but I’ve got another: Michigan and North Carolina. You can calibrate the level of Republican success (or failure) by how things go in those quite different states.
Republicans have a ripe opportunity in both, though not quite as ripe as in 1994, when the GOP gained four seats in North Carolina, one in Michigan. Those pickups were part of a 52-seat Republican gain nationally. This year, there are four possible scenarios. If the GOP adds four more seats in North Carolina and two or three in Michigan, that will indicate another blowout — 25 or 30 seats overall, maybe more. Next scenario: A gain of one or two seats in North Carolina and no more than one in Michigan will translate into a 10-to-15-seat Republican pickup nationwide. Third, if Republicans pick up only the single open seat in North Carolina, that will coincide with a gain of zero to five seats nationally. And, finally, if Republicans win no new seats in either North Carolina or Michigan — the backlash scenario — they’ll hold their own in the House, at best, or lose a handful of seats. My guess is neither blowout nor backlash is likely.
Why North Carolina and Michigan as weather-vanes? North Carolina was the heart of the Republican revolution in 1994 (only Washington state, with five, had more House pickups). And it’s still trending Republican. The open seat of retiring Democrat Bill Hefner is all but certain to fall to Republican Robin Hayes, who announced early and has plenty of money and a weak Democratic opponent. Two others are marginal seats that flip-flopped in 1994 and 1996: Democrat David Price lost the Raleigh seat, then won it back, and Democrat Bill Etheridge grabbed the Durham seat his party had lost two years earlier. A fourth seat, held by black Democrat Mel Watt, is essentially a new district. The old one ran narrowly along I-85 to maintain a black majority (56 percent). But it was tossed out by the federal courts as unconstitutional. Watt’s new district reaches into the Charlotte suburbs and is only one-third black.
If Republicans manage a breakthrough in North Carolina, it will be thanks to President Clinton. Both state legislator Dan Page, who’s challenging Etheridge, and businessman Tom Roberg, Price’s foe, have broadcast anti-Clinton TV ads. Page has an especially receptive audience. Democrats concede the district leans Republican, and they note that former congressman David Funderburk lost to Etheridge in 1996 not because of ideology but because he was involved in a highly publicized traffic accident. A GOP poll in August showed voters prefer a Republican congressman by 45 percent to 35 percent. Not surprisingly, Etheridge voted for the Republican impeachment resolution on October 8.
Price didn’t, and that could cost him. Roberg ran one TV spot demanding Price declare whether he thinks Clinton should resign. Price didn’t respond. Then, after the impeachment vote, Roberg changed the ad to insist that Price end his silence and join in calling on Clinton “to do what’s right” — resign. Also, the National Republican Congressional Committee, in its initial $ 7 million wave of ads on “Republican solutions,” has targeted the Price and Etheridge districts and touted Roberg and Page. And Watt is singled out in another NRCC ad as an opponent of tax cuts. It mentions the “first tax cut in 16 years,” passed in 1997, and shows a picture of Watt with a big “NO” on it. For Watt, 55 percent of the district is new. Still, the odds on beating him or Price are less than 50-50.
In Michigan, Democratic incumbents are stronger, but they’ve got an additional problem: Geoffrey Fieger, the party’s nominee for governor. He’s the lawyer for Dr. Kevorkian, but that’s the least of it. His comments have enraged Catholics, Protestants, and Jews, and only 24 percent of Michigan voters had a favorable opinion of him in a recent poll. He trailed Republican governor John Engler by 67 percent to 20 percent in that survey. Worse, he’s divided Democrats. Democratic House members David Bonior and Debbie Stabenow have endorsed him, Bart Stupak has publicly refused to, Sander Levin and Dale Kildee say they haven’t decided, and Lynn Rivers won’t say. “There is a Fieger effect,” claims GOP congressman Pete Hoekstra. “It put a lot of my Democratic colleagues in a hole they’ve got to dig themselves out of. If they don’t endorse Fieger, it irritates their base. If they do, it energizes the other side.”
Republicans are already energized. Rep. John Linder, the NRCC chairman, talks up the prospects of defeating Levin, whose district is in suburban Detroit. State chair Betsy DeVos says that Bonior, the House Democratic whip, is also beatable. The best GOP shot is probably Stupak, who represents the upper peninsula. He’s pro-life and pro-gun, and thus in sync with his district, but still vulnerable. “Between Clinton at the top and Fieger, Democrats are getting double whammied,” says pollster Gene Ulm. Among voters most interested in the campaign, Republicans have a 17-percentage-point advantage, which suggests a massively depressed Democratic turnout.
Republicans shouldn’t get their hopes too high. A Democratic turnout that’s only moderately weaker is likely. Even taking this into account, Democratic polls show all their Michigan and North Carolina incumbents ahead. And Republicans have been excited about the chances of ousting Levin and Bonior before. In 1996, Engler was convinced GOP challenger Susy Heintz would whip Bonior; she lost 54 percent to 44 percent. On the other hand, October is the month when Republican ads flood the airwaves, trumping the free media. Democrats understandably fear this. A Democratic strategist told me to check back in mid-October, when polls will show the effect of the first wave of GOP ads in Michigan, North Carolina, and elsewhere. Reason enough, I think, to keep an eye on both states.
Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD.
