TEXAS GOVERNOR GEORGE W. BUSH and his aides think there are only two ways he can lose the Republican presidential nomination. One is if Steve Forbes spends millions more than any other candidate and emerges as a serious challenger. The other is if Bush screws up as a candidate. Naturally, Bush is eager to avoid blowing his lead, so he’s decided to prolong his non-candidacy through the summer and put off a formal announcement until the fall. This means he won’t appear with any of his GOP opponents at candidate forums, won’t participate in the Republican presidential straw vote in Ames, Iowa, on August 14, and won’t give speeches outlining his policy positions in detail.
In short, he’s adopted a passive strategy, common among front-runners, that has a certain logic to it. He’s been served well so far by staying aloof from other Republican presidential contenders. “What he’s doing is certainly working,” says House deputy whip Roy Blunt of Missouri, a Bush backer. Bush is ahead of his GOP rivals and likeliest Democratic foe, Vice President Al Gore, by substantial margins in polls. He’s captured the support of much of the party establishment in Washington and across the country. In fact, he’s already consulting with congressional Republicans on, as Blunt puts it, “an election strategy and a governing strategy.” So, since things are going well, why change the game plan?
For one thing, the strategy may be too cute, and voters may resent it. Once the Texas legislature adjourns on May 31, Bush does plan to speak around the country, pursuing what one aide called “a pretty aggressive schedule”: Appear in Iowa on June 12, move on to New Hampshire for two days, and then fly to South Carolina. He’ll also spend time in other states with early primaries or caucuses. Bush will be unmistakably campaigning for the nomination. He may argue otherwise, insisting he’s still exploring whether to run, hasn’t announced, and thus isn’t ready to mix it up with his Republican foes. But that won’t fool anyone, nor will it satisfy the other candidates and the press. And rank-and-file Republicans may take offense that Bush doesn’t participate in candidate forums and the Ames event — that is, the places where they go to see and hear the candidates. The Bush team, however, isn’t too worried, believing that as front-runner, Bush is free to run his campaign in his own time frame and in his own way.
By skipping the Ames straw vote, Bush will avoid a potential bump in the road. He’s avoiding another in Florida, where his brother, Gov. Jeb Bush, has called off the straw vote. (The Republican front-runner four years ago, Bob Dole, spent $ 1 million on Florida’s candidate forum and still barely won.) And Bush has dealt, he hopes, with another pre-Iowa hazard, the Louisiana caucuses in February 2000. He’ll skip them and rely instead on Gov. Mike Foster to insure he gets the bulk of the Louisiana delegates.
In theory, all this makes sense. But by passing on all these contests, Bush does give up something: edge. His campaign may lack the raw, fighting edge that will be indispensable once the key primaries and caucuses begin. He’s been slow in organizing in Iowa, but by participating in the straw vote, he could begin putting together a strong state organization for the caucuses next February. Also, the straw vote, if it goes poorly for Bush, might provide a warning sign. It did for Dole in 1995, when he finished in a near-tie with Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas. Bush, though, has decided there’s nothing to gain by playing in Ames. If he wins, he’ll be faulted for not winning by a big enough margin. If he loses, he’ll be embarrassed.
When Bush speaks outside Texas during June, July, and August, he’ll spell out why he’s (considering) running for president, what his principles and priorities are, and how he judges his own fitness for the presidency. Doesn’t sound too exciting, does it? Specifics? Oh, it’s not time yet, his aides will say, for him to get into detailed proposals or policy statements. Still, serious proposals and policies are what’s expected of serious presidential candidates. My guess is Bush will be zinged harshly for not giving the press, whose favor he craves, what it wants. At best, he’ll deliver serious speeches on foreign and defense policy designed to shore up his lack of experience in those areas.
The biggest problem in Bush’s bid to create a safe environment for his campaign is that he won’t test himself as a candidate and improve where improvement is needed. A lot may be needed. Bush’s three campaigns — for the House in 1978, for governor in 1994 and 1998 — have hardly prepared him for the pressure he’ll face as the front-running GOP presidential candidate. Getting an early taste of it could be helpful. Otherwise, he’ll enter the fray, after finally announcing his candidacy in the fall, with only a few months left before the primaries and caucuses begin. If he stumbles badly, there may not be time to recover.
Bush is where Ronald Reagan was in 1979 and early 1980, a front-runner wary of tangling with his rivals for the nomination. Reagan decided to skip the big televised debate a few weeks before the Iowa caucuses, and he paid for it by losing the caucuses. Yes, Reagan recovered and went on to win the presidency. But George W. Bush is no Reagan. Being seen as the inevitable GOP nominee the year before, as Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush, and Dole were, usually means you win the nomination. It doesn’t guarantee you’ll beat the Democratic nominee to win the White House. Far from it.
Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD.
