I gave Recep Tayyip Erdogan the benefit of the doubt for too long. It is now clear that Turkey’s strongman has little time for the norms of pluralism or multi-party democracy. Like so many caudillos before him, he has managed to act within the letter of the law while disregarding precedent, self-restraint and respect for opponents. Political dissidents have been harassed and jailed, previously independent institutions brought under government control, critical newspapers silenced. Turkey, once an inspiration to reformists throughout the Muslim world, is turning into a tinpot autocracy.
Why didn’t I see it earlier? My reasons are telling. And if you’re a mainstream conservative who started to see a case for Trump after the primaries, you might like to ponder them.
First, I love Turkey. I first traveled there in my early twenties, when I was obsessed by the 1915 Dardanelles campaign. I immediately liked the people — brave, stoical, generous, hospitable and patriotic, if a little inclined to conspiracy theories. I saw Turkey as a model for the region, a successful, Western-oriented Muslim democracy. Because a lot of the hostility to Erdogan came from people who were anti-Turkish, especially in continental Europe, I became more sympathetic to him than I might otherwise have been.
Second, much of the criticism was demonstrably false. Turkey has become a more authoritarian state, but it has not become a theocracy, let alone, as is sometimes alleged, an ally of the Islamic State. On the contrary, it has conducted a fierce military campaign against the desert jihadis who have, in return, carried out repeated acts of terrorism in Turkish towns.
Third, the censure was unbalanced. In their determination to paint Turkey as some sort of Iran, critics overlooked Erdogan’s achievements, such as opening the economy, absorbing Syrian refugees and removing the oppressive restrictions on Kurds.
Fourth, there was no obvious alternative. Erdogan’s AK Party was full of pro-Western types who were good at making excuses for him, whereas the Leftist opposition was shrill and unpersuasive.
So, you’ve probably spotted where I’m going with this. Watching Donald Trump and Erdogan square off, I became uncomfortably conscious that much of this reasoning applied, mutatis mutandis, to the American president.
As in Turkey, the leader is attacked by a lot of shrill and unpersuasive people who have never cared for his country at all. As in Turkey, many detractors make ridiculous arguments, mouthing their comforting lines about racism-sexism-homophobia rather than asking more searching questions about abuses of power, character failings and the mixing of public office with private interests. As in Turkey, there is an unwillingness to recognize real achievements, notably on the economy. As in Turkey, the opposition is dreadful.
How many American conservatives have been pushed into supporting Trump by the hysterical tone of his opponents? I’m not talking here about those who backed him all the way through the primaries: America, like every country, has its share of nativist-protectionist voters. I’m talking about those who initially took the view that Trump’s character flaws barred him from high office, who backed every other Republican contender before him, who then swung behind him because he wasn’t Hillary Clinton and who, having made their choice, began to screen out news stories that might undermine it.
To be clear, the United States is not starting from the same place as Turkey. It has a constitution designed explicitly to contain leaders who lack self-control. Although Donald Trump likes to talk about locking up his opponents, he doesn’t have the powers of a Turkish president.
The United States is not going to slide into absolutism, as in some Sinclair Lewis or Philip Roth novel. Indeed, the readiness with which Trump’s opponents toss out that silly prediction helps shore up his support. But let’s try to set the bar a little higher than “not a fascist,” shall we?
How many American conservatives, before the 2016 election, would have dreamed that they’d now be arguing that it’s fine to pay off porn stars and lie about it as long as there was no technical campaign finance violation? Or that they’d be okay with threatening officials who do their jobs independently? Or that they’d be making excuses for a president who has doubled the deficit, raised tariffs and abased himself before Vladimir Putin?
“Oh, so you prefer Hillary, then?” was always an inadequate response; but it is especially bizarre when the alternative is not Hillary Clinton, but Mike Pence, a man of impeccable patriotism and integrity.
The danger is not that America follows Turkey into absolutism. The danger, more prosaically, is that American conservatives will abandon their traditional elevation of character, civility and decency in the name of protecting a man who cannot remain in power for more than a few short years, win or lose.
The republic may emerge undamaged; but will the Republicans?
