I’ve accepted it—it’s not going to happen at the U.S. Open. Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will never meet in the final there. I had hoped there would be a chance this season, but now that the draw is out, the best they can do is the semifinals.
It’s a disappointment for the Open, but at least there’s a chance Federer and Nadal will play each other this time. They’ve played plenty of matches—37 in all—and many at the majors, including five at the French Open, four at the Australian Open and three at Wimbledon. Somehow, it’s never a New York event in the making—even though two times they were one point away from meeting.
A bigger point: At this year’s Open, there’s a tough road for these two to meet in the semifinals (five victories each). Federer, for one, has a grim draw. He could play hard serving Feliciano Lopez in the third round, 22-year-old gun Nick Kyrgios in the fourth round and Dominic Thiem in the quarterfinals. That’s a lot of power for the tournament in that stage. Nadal has a fairly easy path to the quarterfinals, but then would face Grigor Dimitrov, who looked wonderful when he won in Cincinnati this month. He’s not ready to talk about Federer just yet.
“Ten matches, ten victories to have that match,” Nadal said. “A lot of points and games to play, so now is not the moment to think about that.”
The other half of the men’s draw is more wide open—the injured Andy Murray announced he was out on Saturday—and that’s just what 20-year-old Alexander Zverev could have wanted most. Zverev has had a fine summer, including a win against Federer in the Montreal singles final this month. And he’s done well in many tournaments, but not the Grand Slams, where he has never escaped the fourth round. Chances are he’ll do that, and possibly a lot more, at the Open.
If you’re looking for an American man to do well, stick with John Isner. He has been playing well and has a nice draw. If he reaches the quarterfinals he would likely meet Zverev.
In the women’s draw, there’s one doozy to start the tournament: Simona Halep, seeded second, against the unseeded Maria Sharapova, who received a wildcard as she returns from a 15-month drug suspension. Sharapova has beaten Halep all six times they have played and never lost in the first round of the U.S. Open (10-0).
“Facing her, I’m, like, it’s going to be a big challenge,” Halep said. “She beat me six times. So maybe I will change this.”
My advice: Don’t feel bad for Halep. She has played well this summer and Sharapova has been injured and played little. After the difficult first round, Halep would have an open event until the quarterfinals, where she could meet Great Britain’s Johanna Konta. The semifinal in this side of the draw, if it happens, would be a beauty: Halep versus Garbiñe Muguruza, who won Wimbledon this year and is playing the best tennis of her career.
The other half of the women’s draw is a wildcard. Karolina Pliskova, the top seed, could win her half. But so could fourth seed Elina Svitolina, a 22-year-old who is having a fine year. Also in the mix are Angelique Kerber (last year’s champion), eighth seed Svetlana Kuznetsova, tenth seed Agnieszka Radwanska and fifteenth-seed American Madison Keys.
Only in New York, kids. Only in New York.
