Having won an overwhelming reelection victory, Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez–who famously called President Bush the devil in an address to the United Nations–now has a free hand to pursue his revolutionary ambitions. His victory also presents the United States with an important opportunity to reengage with Latin America.
The opposition actually thought they might win this election–but that if they did the Chavistas would resort to electoral fraud. Although there were irregularities on Election Day, international monitors certified the election as conducted lawfully. The European Union’s Electoral Observation Mission noted that Chávez had mobilized state institutions for his reelection campaign. Using public funds, Chávez outspent the opposition twelve to one. Campaign materials were posted at public facilities and on public vehicles, and public employees were pressured to support the president. The opposition candidate, Manuel Rosales, conceded on Election Night, having received about 38 percent of the vote.
In retrospect, Chávez’s victory should not have come as a surprise. A major oil producer, Venezuela has a booming economy. Chávez is a charismatic figure who has engaged Venezuela’s poor and developed high-profile aid programs. The efficacy of these programs at reducing poverty is an open question. The 2006 U.N. Development Program report shows that poverty reduction in Venezuela has been modest, and Chávez’s government has constructed fewer units of public housing than the previous administration, which governed during a prolonged recession. Crime has skyrocketed under Chávez (Venezuela has one of the world’s highest homicide rates), state institutions have been politicized, and government has increasingly encroached on freedom of the press and judicial independence. But the middle classes are prospering, and Chávez has avoided overly antagonizing the wealthy.
Chávez interprets his victory as a mandate to enact his grand design. “Nobody will take me out of the path to socialism,” he promises, “and particularly not now, when I won over seven million votes.” Chávez’s rhetoric is messianic: He frequently claims his revolution is building the Kingdom of Heaven on Earth. His most recent vision is to do away with money and establish the barter system. To see his project through, Chávez is planning to campaign to change the constitution so that he can be reelected for several more terms and remain in office until 2021.
His ambitions extend beyond Venezuela. In August he told Al Jazeera that the way to the Kingdom of Heaven is via a multipolar world. To this end, Chávez is funding ideological allies in Latin America and has founded Telesur, a Spanish language satellite channel modeled on Al Jazeera that has been broadcasting since July 2005. More ominously, he is purchasing military hardware, including Russian fighters and helicopters. There are persistent reports that the narco terrorist guerilla group FARC is granted safe haven in western Vene zuela. On the world stage, Chávez has forged an alliance with Iran and Syria.
As long as oil prices are high, Chávez is free to pursue his ambitions (in OPEC he leads the call for production cuts). But he has done little to develop alternative industries, so when prices fall Chávez’s revolution will be unsustainable. In the meantime, it is essential the international community keep the spotlight on Venezuela’s democracy to ensure that democratic processes remain viable.
Unfortunately, American criticism only plays into Chávez’s hands, and many in Latin America bristle at U.S. involvement in their nations’ internal affairs. Latin America must begin to monitor itself. The United States can encourage this by reengaging with Latin America, which it has long relegated to the foreign policy back burner. The United States should press forward on free trade and expand development aid, military cooperation, and exchange programs with the region. Currently USAID programs to Latin America total less than $1 billion annually, while the National Endowment for Democracy funds democracy-promotion efforts there to the tune of less than $15 million annually. Meanwhile Cuban doctors, funded by Chávez, are dispensing free medical treatment in the slums of Caracas and throughout the Andes.
If the United States builds relationships in Latin America, it may find some surprising allies against Chávez. While Chávez-type candidates won recent elections in Nicaragua, Ecuador, and Bolivia, his radicalism frightens many in the region. Association with Chávez contributed to the defeat of candidates in Peru and Mexico.
Chávez has had high-profile spats with the governments of Mexico, Colombia, and Peru. Even Brazil and Argentina, which are governed by Chávez allies, have had trouble with him. Bolivia, with Chávez’s support, is raising natural gas prices–causing headaches in Argentina and Brazil. However, if the United States does not build bridges to the region, Chávez’s rhetoric and petrodollars will fill the vacuum.
Flush with oil money and a strong electoral victory, Chávez is riding high, his influence rising. For the United States, this is a wake-up call. Unless we reengage with Latin America, we may find ourselves in a region full of Hugos.
Aaron Mannes, author of the TerrorBlog, researches terrorism and international affairs at the University of Maryland’s Information and Network Dynamics Laboratory. Opinions expressed here are his own.
