In between episodes of our podcasts, you will want to tune in to the latest of the Conversations with Bill Kristol (conversationswithbillkristol.org), this one featuring veteran Republican political strategist and commentator Mike Murphy. The main topic is the outlook for the midterm elections and 2020. The Scrapbook has been a denizen of the D.C. swamp for longer than we care to admit and can vouch for Murphy as one of the greatest talkers and raconteurs we’ve met in politics.
Here’s a sample:
Republicans have done well in the off-year [elections] because our grumpy old retired Army colonels all vote. And the Democrats do well in the presidential years because they get their millennials and poorer voters to show up, etc., etc. So the Democrats have spent fortunes trying to get those presidential-year voters to show up in the off year, and it has almost always failed, despite the mythology of Eric Schmidt and all the magic. This year, if you look at the special elections, which are a fairly good canary-in-the-cage test, you had that massive turnout. So we got a pile of dead canaries from the first couple of elections. So it is likely that some of these presidential-year Democrats will get engaged and show up, which is a thumb on the scale against us that could be part of the formula to cause us to lose the House.
There’s a lot more in that vein. Do give a listen.
