REPUBLICAN GORDON SMITH, running for Bob Packwood’s Senate seat in Oregon’s special election in January, was defensive on the subject of House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Responding to charges he’s an ideological twin of Gingrich, Smith emphasized his differences with the GOP leader. Then Republican Tom Campbell won a special House election in California on December 12, overwhelming a foe who attacked him as a Gingrich clone. Smith immediately telephoned Campbell and arranged for him to come to Oregon on Smith’s behalf. The purpose: to show the Newt issue won’t work in Oregon either. Also, Smith won’t be poised to distance himself from Gingrich. “He’s said his piece on Newt Gingrich,” said Nancy Ives of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Smith shouldn’t have been defensive in the first place. The notion that Gingrich is an albatross for Republican candidates was always questionable. And the idea that Gingrich’s declining popularity reflects a broad drop in support for the Republican party and its agenda — it’s pure myth. Rather than lose strength since it took control of Congress last January, the GOP has held its own, even gained a bit. Election results show this. Poll findings, some but not all, show it. Party switchers and retirees show it. There’s contrary evidence — Gingrich’s lack of popularity, President Clinton’s improved standing, the dip in public approval of the “Republican Congress” — but not enough to conclude Republicans have lost ground.
Democrats are worse off at the end of 1995 than they were at the start. Following the 1994 election, they needed a pickup of only 13 seats to win back the House and 3 to regain the Senate. Now, because of party switching and Campbell, Democrats need to win 19. In the Senate, where two Democrats jumped to the Republican party, Democrats now must win 4 seats (or 5 if Smith wins in Oregon). By the way, there haven’t been this many party switchers in Congress — all going to the GOP — since the collapse of the Whig party before the Civil War. Nationwide, 169 Democratic elected officials have switched since Clinton was elected in 1992.
Retirements make Democratic chances of taking back the House or Senate all the more difficult. Of the 31 announced retirees, 22 are Democrats. At least 10 of these Democratic seats, including three in Texas and two in Alabama, are ripe for Republican takeovers. In the Senate, the 12 retirees (8 are Democrats) are the most in history for a single election cycle. And at least six of the Democratic seats — Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Arkansas, Illinois, and New Jersey — are vulnerable. The flood of voluntary departures, especially by senior Democrats like House member Pat Schroeder of Colorado, points to one thing: Democrats don’t expect to win back Congress and their committee chairmanships in 1996.
So events in 1995 have put Republicans in good shape for holding Congress in 1996. Despite most press reports, the GOP also fared moderately well in 1995 elections. Republicans won the Democrat-held Louisiana governor’s office, added to their victory margin in winning the Mississippi governor’s race again, narrowly lost the Kentucky governor’s election, maintained their lopsided margin in the New Jersey legislature, and won two seats in the Virginia Senate. True, Republicans didn’t live up to their high expectations in 1995 races, but they came close.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, the party hasn’t lost favor with the public. Asked in November 1995 in a Times-Mirror poll if they’d vote Republican or Democratic for Congress, voters split 48 percent to 48 percent. A year earlier, when Republicans won 53 House seats and 8 in the Senate, Republicans led 45 percent to 43 percent in a Times-Mirror survey. That change is inside the margin of error. In other words, there hasn’t been any change. The same is true on the question of which party Americans identify with. Asked in October 1995, in a New York Times/CBS poll, voters chose Democrats 35 percent to 31 percent. A year earlier, Democrats led 34 percent to 31 percent. And, while approval of the Republican Congress has fallen, it may rebound once a budget deal is reached.
Republicans have been pounded by Democrats on Medicare, but the GOP’s broad conservative themes are more popular than ever. Asked if big government, big labor, or big business is the greatest threat to the country, 64 percent of adult Americans said big government in a Gallup survey last August, a new high. Is government doing too much or too little? Sixty-two percent said too much in an NBC/Wall Street Journal survey in December. Have Republicans gone too far in cutting back the federal government? Only 21 percent in a September Times-Mirror poll said yes, with 47 percent saying Republicans haven’t gone far enough. The same survey found 62 percent prefer smaller government and fewer services (27 percent want more government, many services) .
Still, Republicans were nervous about the Newt factor, worrying his lack of popularity would hurt GOP candidates. In the special California election, Democrats tried to make the race a referendum on Gingrich. If that strategy will work anywhere, it should have worked in that district. Democrats lead in voter registration (44 percent to 38 percent). They’ve held the seat for a generation. The incumbent who resigned, Norm Mineta, got 60 percent in 1994 against a Republican tide. And both Clinton and Mike Dukakis won the district handily.
Campbell’s landslide win, 59 percent to 36 percent over Democrat Jerry Estruth, means the Newt issue “isn’t a magic bullet for Democrats,” insists Republican consultant Jeffrey Bell. “It doesn’t work.” Estruth probably would have done better by running a normal campaign, ignoring Gingrich.
But Democrats are reluctant to give up the Newt issue. It didn’t work in California because Campbell is a moderate, not a conservative like Gingrich, argues Don Foley of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Oregon is different because Smith is more conservative, Foley says. Smith’s opponent, Democrat Ron Wyden, is airing a TV ad that links Smith to Gingrich and says both are “going to extremes.” “We have no intention of backing away from it,” Foley insists.
“In this case, we think the shoe fits.” They’ll be wearing it, no matter what.
by Fred Barnes
