GLOOMY OLD PARTY

The answer is no. But the president’s shamelessness is a given. Republicans will have to deal with it. Unfortunately, there’s no evidence they’ve figured out how. Indeed, they’ve grown anxious about having put him on trial in the Senate for perjury and obstruction of justice. RNC members are apoplectic about the trial. “If it goes on much longer, we may not be able to repair the damage,” says Connecticut GOP chairman Chris DePino. He’s talking about damage to the Republican party, not to Clinton. “It’s not helping us with the public,” says John Ryder, the national committeeman from Tennessee. “Let’s vote on it and move on.” Even the two Republicans who gave the GOP response to the State of the Union address seemed embarrassed by the Senate trial, declining to discuss it or even utter the dread word “impeachment.” Rep. Jennifer Dunn referred delicately to “the president’s situation” and insisted there’s no constitutional crisis in Washington.

The Republican malaise was evident in the speeches supporting Nicholson’s reelection at the RNC meeting on January 22. With Nicholson as chairman, “we have done more things well than poorly,” declared Arizona GOP chairman Mike Hellon. Hardly a ringing endorsement. “The biggest complaint I hear is a lack of cohesive message,” he continued, but “that wasn’t Jim Nicholson’s fault.” Hellon said it was the fault of House and Senate Republicans. Last year, “they simply would not listen. Well, they’re listening now.” All the same, that brings us to the three major shortcomings paralyzing the Republican party.

Issues. Republicans don’t have many at the moment. They grouse that Clinton is the great issue thief, but so what? They should be thrilled that Clinton is forced to loot the conservative agenda. Who’d have guessed a few years ago that he would favor using a budget surplus largely to make the Social Security system solvent? Not I. But that’s what he’s done. And, flip-flopping with abandon, he’s swiped other GOP issues as well. He’s now for lifting the earnings limit for Social Security recipients. He thinks missile defense is necessary. He’s for increasing military spending. He’s even for conservative goals in education. Sure, his motives are bad. Clinton backs conservative positions solely for the purpose of preventing Republicans from using them against him and, in 2000, against Al Gore. But the point is he’s left Republicans with little to call their own.

Except tax cuts. Unlike impeachment, this is an issue that unites Republicans. The question is whether Republicans in 1999 have the courage of their convictions. In 1998, they didn’t. Then, the House passed a tax cut, only to have Senate Republicans kill it. Nicholson said Republicans must seek an across-the-board cut of “at least” 10 percent. If they do, Clinton is bound to accuse them of robbing funds from Social Security and jeopardizing the system. Republicans will have to weather that. What else? Republicans could up the ante on other issues, sending Clinton a hike in defense spending of $ 50 billion instead of $ 10 billion or a bill that voucherizes federal funds for special education. A Clinton veto would only give these issues more visibility.

Leaders. Where is Newt Gingrich when Republicans need him? “It’s a party that doesn’t know how to function without a single leader to rally around,” says Vin Weber, the former GOP House member. “Now there isn’t one, and that’s demoralizing everyone.” Gingrich was last in a line of Republicans — Goldwater, Nixon, Reagan, and Bush — who could command the party. For all his faults, Gingrich was a visionary and a fighter. Lott is a dealmaker. House Speaker Dennis Hastert is a den mother. Nicholson is a nice man, but he’s hardly able to dictate an agenda to congressional Republicans. Rather than competing on an equal footing with Clinton, these Republicans are merely the president’s foils. Unfortunately, the party won’t have a real leader until its presidential nominee is crowned in August 2000. Depending on who’s nominated, it may not then either.

Guts. This is the real problem for Republicans. Clinton’s success in remaining popular while impeached has left them downcast. House Republicans are all but ready to throw in the towel. They’re persuaded (by polls) that moderate and independent voters have been turned off by Republicans, particularly by their pursuit of Clinton. They believe that if these voters aren’t mollified, they’ll lose the House in 2000. So what should House Republicans do? They figure they’ll be better off compromising with Clinton instead of fighting with him. It will then be up to Senate Republicans to repair any bad deals they make with Clinton and the Democrats. “We’re going to be sending the Senate a lot of junk,” says a GOP official. “If anyone’s looking for us to excite the [conservative] base, it’s not there.”

So 1999 is not going to be pretty for Republicans: Clinton off the hook, congressional Republicans cowed, no presidential nominee in sight. Sounds bad. But there’s always that gallows humor to fall back on. Jay Leno noted Clinton’s approval rating jumped to 76 percent after his State of the Union address. “This is significant. This is the first time Clinton has gone up in the polls without committing adultery first.” One member of the RNC has his own variation. “If Clinton has oral sex two more times, he’ll be above 90 percent.” The fellow laughed grimly at his own joke.

Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD.