Last summer, Senate Republicans seemed headed for a cliff in the 2008 election and likely to land on the wrong side of a 60-seat, filibuster-proof Democratic majority. Fights over immigration and Iraq had plunged Republican approval ratings to new lows, and a string of retirements left the GOP in danger of losing more than a dozen seats. Senator John Ensign, chairman of the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), says donors wouldn’t so much as take his calls.
But Republican prospects have “improved quite a bit,” Ensign says, now that things are going better in Iraq. The number of competitive races has shrunk as Democrats failed to recruit blue-chip candidates in red states like Tennessee, North Carolina, Kansas, and Nebraska. NRSC executive director Scott Bensing says recruiting Republican candidates was “painstaking” a year ago, but now Republicans have strong candidates for a number of contested seats where John McCain’s nomination should help win independents.
Even so, November’s Senate races are an uphill battle. Republicans control 23 of the 35 seats up for election this year, and 9 of the 10 vulnerable seats are held by Republicans, mostly in blue states and states that are trending Democratic. The Republicans are also at a disadvantage on money: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had $29 million in cash on hand at the end of 2007, to the Republicans’ $12 million. “We’re going to have a more Democratic Senate, we’re just not sure how much more,” says Larry Sabato of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “It’s possible that McCain has stabilized things enough for Republicans so that what might have been a disastrous year for the GOP may become a tolerably bad year.”
Just how much the Democrats increase their ranks will matter a great deal. They now control the Senate 51 to 49. If they take 7 or 8 seats, they’ll put a GOP majority out of reach for many election cycles. And, assuming they can pick off a few liberal Republican votes, they’ll have the effectively filibuster-proof Senate needed to pass an Obama administration’s legislative wish list.
So how go the races for the 10 Senate seats in play? Let’s start with the 4 Democratic-leaning states with Republican incumbents: Minnesota and New Hampshire are toss ups, while Maine and Oregon look good for Republicans.
To win his second term, Minnesota’s Norm Coleman will have to defeat trial lawyer Mike Ciresi or comedian and former Air America radio host Al Franken, who will contend for the Democratic nomination at the state party’s convention in June. In a recent poll, Coleman was a couple points ahead of Ciresi and a few points behind Franken, but Republicans are salivating at the opportunity to run against Franken, author of Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot. Franken is not necessarily too liberal or eccentric for a state that has elected Paul Wellstone and pro-wrestler Jesse Ventura, but the NRSC’s Bensing says Franken is a “nasty, sarcastic, mean person, and Norm Coleman’s going to chew him up.” Sabato is more cautious. “This is a state that could turn on a dime,” he says, adding that “if McCain puts [Minnesota governor Tim] Pawlenty on the ticket, that could save Coleman” by boosting Republican turnout and attracting Independents.
New Hampshire’s freshman senator John Sununu faces a tough rematch with former governor Jeanne Shaheen, whom he beat by 5 points in 2002. The polls, though favoring Shaheen, have been wildly volatile. The underlying fact is that the state is becoming more Democratic. Registered Republicans outnumbered registered Democrats by about 10 percentage points in 2002; that GOP edge has almost disappeared. Democrats took over both House seats and the state legislature in 2006. Yet Sununu is optimistic, insisting, “New Hampshire remains a state where limiting taxes and the size of government is very important.”
Across the New Hampshire border, Maine’s junior senator, Susan Collins, is being challenged by congressman Tom Allen. Although he is probably the strongest candidate Maine Democrats could have wished for, multiple polls have shown her ahead by more than 20 points. Both candidates have high name recognition, and Allen will probably need Collins to make a serious gaffe (think “macaca”) for this race to become competitive.
Like Collins, Oregon senator Gordon Smith now opposes the Iraq war. He also enjoys double-digit leads over his prospective Democratic challengers, speaker of the Oregon house Jeff Merkley and political activist Steve Novick, who face off in a primary in May. Unlike Collins, Smith isn’t polling above 50 percent, normally a warning sign for an incumbent. The Democratic nominee–both Merkley and Novick are relatively unknown–will receive a boost from the primary, but Democrats will be hampered by a third-party challenge from the left by former NEA chairman John Frohnmayer.
Then there are three open seats in states trending Democratic where Republicans are retiring: John Warner in Virginia, Pete Domenici in New Mexico, and Wayne Allard in Colorado.
If any Democrat besides former governor Mark Warner were on the ballot in Virginia, this race would be tighter, but as it stands Warner is leading former Republican governor Jim Gilmore by about 20 points in the polls. Beyond his own popularity, Mark Warner benefits from the recent shift toward Democrats in the Old Dominion. In 2007, Democrats proved that Jim Webb’s 2006 upset of George Allen wasn’t a fluke by winning control of the state senate, and this year Virginia will be a battleground state in the presidential election. Mark Warner will likely become the state’s second Democratic senator.
All three of New Mexico’s congressmen are fighting for the seat Domenici is vacating. Conservative Steve Pearce and moderate Heather Wilson face off in a June 3 Republican primary, but either candidate will have a tight race against Democrat Tom Udall in November. The most recent poll shows Udall leading Wilson by 7 points and Pearce by 8 points. The early lead taken by Udall, son of former congressman and interior secretary Stewart Udall, can be explained in part by high name recognition. In addition, Democrats outnumber Republicans 49 percent to 33 percent among registered voters statewide. In 2006, Udall won his own district by 55 points, while Pearce won his by 20 points, and Wilson only squeaked by. Still, with a popular southwestern GOP senator on the presidential ticket, it would be premature to count out Pearce or Wilson.
The race in Colorado pits Democratic congressman Mark Udall, Tom’s cousin, against former Republican congressman Bob Schaffer. Polls have shown the two candidates neck-and-neck. Republicans enjoy a small advantage in registration, but the state has been electing Democrats like Senator Ken Salazar and Governor Bill Ritter in recent years. Schaffer says these victories are not a “trend but an anomaly.” He points out that prior to their election neither Salazar nor Ritter–who ran as a pro-life Democrat–had a legislative voting record, while “Udall has more than 10 years of casting consistent Boulder-oriented votes.” This could be the hardest-fought race in the country, with Democrats trying to expand their gains in the mountain west and holding their convention in Denver.
Last, there are three competitive races in red states: Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alaska.
When Trent Lott retired in December, congressman Roger Wicker was appointed to fill the seat. A pair of polls in December produced conflicting results: Wicker first leading well-known former governor Ronnie Musgrove by 8 points, then trailing him by 14 points. But Wicker is favored to win his special election in November riding on the coattails of John McCain. Bush won the state 59 percent to 40 percent in 2004.
In Louisiana, state treasurer John Kennedy has the best–and perhaps only–shot for a Republican takeover in his race against second-term Democrat Mary Landrieu. The state has tilted Republican in recent years, sending David Vitter to the Senate in 2004 and Bobby Jindal to the governor’s mansion last fall. Kennedy himself is part of this Republican trend, having run against Vitter in 2004 as a Democrat and switched parties last year. While Landrieu’s liberalism on abortion and judges puts her at odds with many Louisiana Democrats, ethics might be the biggest issue in the race. Landrieu has come under fire for earmarking over $2 million for a children’s reading program called Voyager, allegedly in exchange for campaign contributions requested by her office. In November, Kennedy was leading by 7 points, but Landrieu was up by 4 points in early December; no polls have been taken since the Washington Post broke the Voyager story on December 20.
In Alaska, a bribery scandal may cost Republican Ted Stevens his seventh full term in the Senate. The FBI and IRS raided Stevens’s home last July amidst allegations that Veco Corp., an oil pipeline services company, paid for $100,000 in renovations on the house. A grand jury continues to gather evidence, and an indictment would probably sink Stevens. A poll in December showed Anchorage mayor Mark Begich, the likely Democratic nominee, leading Stevens by 6 points. Stevens has already drawn one primary challenger, wealthy businessman and former state legislator David Cuddy, and according to Senator Ensign, the NRSC will not give Stevens any money for his primary campaign. This race looks competitive regardless of the Republican nominee–a surprising development in a state Bush carried by a greater margin than he did Texas.
As the presidential primary process has shown, elections are far from predictable, especially eight months out. Will Republican governor Mike Rounds jump into the South Dakota race and put another Democratic seat in play? It’s not likely. Will John McCain retire from the Senate as he runs for president and open up another Republican seat to defend? He hasn’t said. Will another round of war-funding fights in Congress hurt the Republicans or make the Democrats look out of touch with reality? That’s not certain.
What is clear for the GOP is that, with progress in Iraq, John McCain at the top of the ticket, and a strong crop of candidates, Senate Republicans have taken a step back from the electoral abyss. But the specter of a 7-seat loss still looms.
John McCormack, a Collegiate Network fellow, is an editorial assistant at THE WEEKLY STANDARD.
