THE COMING GOP LANDSLIDE

In 1986, Reagan faced this vacuum. He had already checked spending, cut taxes, reformed the tax code, rearmed America, defeated communism, and led a national swing to the right. He had no more worlds to conquer. His agenda as he entered the ’86 race included warmed-over proposals to restrict abortion, allow school prayer, and amend the Constitution to make his deficits illegal. America knew he didn’t have much left to do. So it turned against the GOP, and Republicans lost the Senate.

Clinton has already done all the important things he wanted to do. His second term was over six months after it began. He balanced the budget, cut taxes, reformed welfare, controlled guns, cut crime, expanded family leave, handled the crisis in Bosnia, kept communism at bay in Russia, put a pro- choice majority on the court, and is even becoming successful at expanding the coverage of health insurance. In this session, he is likely to win much of his child-care package and anti-tobacco program. What is left for him to do? Lose seats in Congress.

Off-year turnout is always about 10 points lower than for presidential elections. The economically downscale vote drops off disproportionately, and most of that vote is Democratic. The Clinton debacle of 1994 and the comeback of 1996 were, in part, due to these natural fluctuations in turnout. Turnout will drop again in 1998, all the more because there is no looming threat to bring Democrats out to vote.

Unwisely, Clinton seems determined to emphasize that there is nothing to do by planning to spend about one-third of the days between now and the election either abroad or on vacation. His tours of Africa, South America, China, Southeast Asia, Russia, and Western Europe may emphasize his “presidentiality, ” as his advisers intend, but they will also make the absence of any domestic agenda all too plain.

Then there are the scandals. While Clinton’s job rating remains high, the public ennui with scandal, which protects the president from impeachment, will likely lead to a sense of the need for change in the ’98 elections. The temptation to vote for nice clean Republicans is likely to be significant to a nation that has tired of hearing about oral sex.

What can the GOP do? It can start by nominating candidates who can be elected. The Illinois primary victory of right-winger Peter Fitzgerald over moderate Loleta Didrickson reminds one of Al Salvi’s upset of moderate lieutenant governor Bob Kustra in the GOP primary of 1996. The nation does not want right-wingers or left-wingers, it wants moderates.

The GOP can also get out of the way. By waging a negative campaign against Clinton over sex issues, it will force voters who don’t want such topics discussed in public (a group I call the silent plurality) to rally behind the president. If the Republicans run moderates and keep their mouths reasonably shut, they will win big in 1998 — a filibuster-proof Senate majority and a working House majority.

Now for the bad news. (Good news for me.) Al Gore will win handily in 2000. Voters want split government. They understand the need for the two parties to check and balance each other. Having seen the GOP try to slash Medicaid and the Democrats try to raise taxes, they understand that competition improves and disciplines politicians.

The public has also learned to distinguish the Neolithic, monolithic House and Senate Democrats from the White House Clinton-Gore wing of the party. As much as they reject the Luddites, they embrace the moderates — of both parties. So: A GOP landslide in 1998 (as in 1994), followed by a Democratic presidential victory in 2000 (as in 1996). Sometimes history does repeat itself.

Dick Morris, a political strategist and columnist, was President Clinton’s chief political adviser in 1995 and ’96.