“THE ONLY THING vice presidents can do is hurt you.” So says Democratic senator Joe Biden when asked whom Al Gore should select to be his running mate. Biden is right, with one big exception: Gore, who was a major asset to Bill Clinton in 1992.
Thus the dilemma facing Gore between now and August: Should he pick someone who will spice up the ticket, as Clinton did in 1992, even if he (or she) is untested? Or should he name someone who simply will do no harm?
Today, Clinton’s choice of Gore looks like a masterstroke, but it was seen as risky at the time, as it brought to the ticket a carbon copy of Clinton: an Ivy League-educated, moderate, baby boomer Baptist from the South.
The advantage was that Gore reinforced the impression that the Democratic ticket was a voice for a new generation in politics. More important, he helped squelch doubts about whether Clinton was really a centrist Democrat, particularly given his vote to authorize the use of force in the GulfWar. The choice of Gore was also smart, says Paul Begala, a top aide to Clinton during the 1992 campaign, because Gore had already been vetted by the national press corps during his 1988 presidential campaign, minimizing the likelihood he’d get a media hazing like those dished out to first-time national candidates Dan Quayle and Geraldine Ferraro.
The early line on Gore’s thinking is that, like Clinton, he won’t bother trying to balance the ticket with his ideological opposite from a different part of the country. Instead, his choice will be designed to send a message about what kind of president Gore would be. It might signal clean government/moral rectitude, or uninterrupted economic stewardship, or political leadership for the next generation. (Democrats say if George W. Bush, who will pick first, names Colin Powell, all bets are off.) A variety of individuals have already become the subject of heavy speculation in Democratic circles. Here’s a look at four of the early front-runners:
P John Kerry: Mention Kerry as a potential running mate, and most Democrats reply that if Gore needs to pick someone from Massachusetts he’s in big trouble. That’s true, but geography would be the last reason for picking Kerry.
While a few clicks to the left of Gore, Kerry would bring considerable foreign-policy experience. More important, he’s a decorated Vietnam veteran (Gore also served in Vietnam, for five months, but never saw combat). John McCain’s personality-driven campaign highlighted the potency of Vietnam as a campaign issue, and Kerry’s presence would undo some of the damage done to the party’s image by having a draft dodger as commander in chief for eight years. In 1998, Gray Davis, the Democratic governor of California, used his Vietnam service to great effect against his Republican opponent, Dan Lungren, who didn’t serve. A Gore-Kerry ticket would pose the same contrast with George W. Bush, who served in the National Guard but never went to Vietnam.
Gore and Kerry were both elected to the Senate in 1984, but they were never particularly close. Indeed, Kerry gave serious thought last year to challenging Gore for the nomination. Instead, he became one of Gore’s most ardent campaigners. He’s appeared on more than 50 talk radio programs on Gore’s behalf, he organized a bus trip for 10 Massachusetts mayors to campaign for Gore in New Hampshire, and he even spent four days in Iowa before the state’s caucuses. Gore appreciated it: Kerry was the only senator Gore asked to join him on election night in Iowa and New Hampshire.
If that’s not enough, Kerry is also well connected in the Gore campaign. Two of his top advisers on past campaigns — Bob Shrum and Michael Whouley — are members of Gore’s inner circle.
P Joseph Lieberman: Picking Lieberman would signal Gore’s desire to distance himself from the personal and political hijinks of the Clinton White House. Lieberman, from Connecticut, was the first Democrat to spell out forcefully his objection to Clinton’s behavior with Monica Lewinsky, calling it “not just inappropriate,” but also “immoral” and “harmful.” He was also the only Democrat during the 1997 Senate hearings on campaign finance abuses to genuinely criticize the White House’s recklessness.
With a reputation as one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate, Lieberman would reinforce Gore’s centrist credentials. This could also cause problems, though, particularly on education, where Lieberman has been much more open-minded about experimenting with vouchers and school choice than Gore, who’s in hock to the anti-reform teachers’ lobby. Yet no one thinks this would be a deal-breaker, and Lieberman is reliably liberal on many other sacred Democratic issues, like abortion. His admiration for Gore is such that he was one of the first elected officials to endorse him, in 1998.
Lieberman is thought of as a mensch, so Gore would have to find somebody else to act as hatchetman. Another concern is that, as an Orthodox Jew, Lieberman is prevented from using anything automated — cars, telephones, electricity — from sundown Friday to sundown Saturday. That would provoke questions about his ability to govern in the event he became president, though the restriction could also be a blessing for him personally. It would give him an excuse for skipping a few of the state party conventions, fund-raising dinners, and funerals for foreign dignitaries that vice presidents are endlessly called on to attend.
Lieberman is up for reelection this year, so he’d have to give up his seat to run with Gore, but people who know him say it would be an easy choice: He’d like nothing more than to be vice president.
P Evan Bayh: If Gore is supremely confident of victory when it comes time to choose his vice president, Bayh will be a logical choice. Elected to the Senate from Indiana in 1998, he’s young (44), handsome, experienced (two terms as governor of Indiana), moderate (he never raised taxes while governor), and has good political genes (his father, Birch, was a liberal icon during his 18 years in the Senate). Indiana would still be unlikely to vote Democratic in the general election — it’s voted Republican in the last eight elections — but Bayh has proven himself able to win in hostile territory. He is, in other words, the spitting image of Gore.
Bayh endorsed Gore in July and campaigned for him in Iowa and New Hampshire, where some residents still remembered his father’s 1976 bid for the White House. The argument against him is that he’s spent less than two years in the Senate and has no foreign policy experience. He also gave a poorly received keynote address to the Democratic convention in 1996. But Bill Clinton proved that a bad speech need not retard the political career of a rising star.
P Gary Locke: In order to appease Democratic bean counters, Gore’s campaign will need to signal that its veep possibilities include a Hispanic (energy secretary Bill Richardson), a woman (senator Dianne Feinstein), and a black (former Clinton budget director Franklin Raines). Off the record, Democratic strategists say none of these people has any hope of being tapped. The minority candidate who could be picked, though, is Gary Locke, the Asian American governor of Washington.
Locke, like Gore, fancies himself a policy wonk and is particularly interested in two of the vice president’s issues: technology and the environment. He first met Gore in 1996, when the Clinton-Gore campaign bus was rolling through Washington. Locke’s wife, Mona, was very pregnant with their first child, and Gore and his wife, Tipper, bonded with the couple through lighthearted talks about parenting. Today, says Blair Butterworth, Locke’s campaign consultant, “there’s a genuine warmth between the vice president and the governor.”
Gore has been back to Washington frequently — he joined Locke in campaigning against a 1998 initiative to ban state-based racial and gender preferences — and he won the governor’s endorsement early last year. Every time the vice president has visited Washington, Locke has accompanied him; and Locke campaigned for Gore against Bill Bradley in the state’s caucuses. He also brings considerable political experience, having spent 11 years as a state legislator and 3 as chief executive of King County, which includes Seattle.
There is one big obstacle to Locke’s being picked: He’s signaled he doesn’t want the job. He told a television interviewer last year that with two young children, he doesn’t envision living in Washington, D.C., and he has said as much privately. Still, if Gore were in a pinch and leaned on Locke, spurning the offer would be unthinkable.
Many other Democrats are being mentioned as potential Gore running mates — governors like Gray Davis of California, Jim Hunt of North Carolina, and former governor Zell Miller of Georgia, senators like Bob Graham of Florida, Richard Durbin of Illinois, and John Edwards of North Carolina — but all are long shots. There’s also some mischief being cooked up by veterans of past Democratic presidential campaigns. James Carville has been pushing ex-treasury secretary Robert Rubin as a way for Gore to signal his economic bona fides, while Bob Beckel, who managed Walter Mondale’s campaign in 1984, says the best thing Gore could do is persuade John McCain to switch parties and run with him.
As for Democratic senators, nearly all of whom see themselves as future presidents, they’re predictably reluctant to reveal much of anything. Bob Graham says, “I like the job I have now.” Chuck Robb of Virginia professes ignorance of the whole process, asking me what I know. West Virginia’s Jay Rockefeller politely declines to play the speculation game.
And then there’s Bob Torricelli of New Jersey, no stranger to political intrigue. In an interview just off the Senate floor, he declares that Gore’s veep must be able to energize the Democratic base and raise money. He also predicts that Gore’s choice will be Catholic. As Torricelli seems to be describing himself, I ask whether he’s interested in the job. He coyly responds, “It’s not foremost in my mind.” Stumped, I ask him to elaborate, and he does: “Let’s just say I regret that my parents converted from Catholicism.”
Matthew Rees is a staff writer at THE WEEKLY STANDARD.
